For most practitioners of college football betting, the process of choosing a wager comes down to an assessment of raw data and human qualities, a mixture of science and art. But what if imponderable emotional factors such as motivation and revenge and were eliminated from the wagering equation and bet selection became nothing more than a matter of pure science?
With that in mind, let’s compare the power ratings of Jeff Sagarin, a USA TODAY contributor whose numbers are used to help calculate the BCS Standings, and the pointspreads offered by leading sportsbooks, which take a more nuanced view of the betting line. We’re looking for discrepancies between Sagarin’s raw data, which is void of interpretation, and the betting line, which incorporates such things as motivation, playing style and match-ups into the pointspread number:
Dec. 17
NEW ORLEANS BOWL, New Orleans
San Diego State (-4 1/2) versus Louisiana-Lafayette: San Diego State has a Sagarin Rating of 71.48, compared to 63.43 for Louisiana-Lafayette. That’s a difference of 8.05, meaning that, according to Sagarin, you’re laying 3 1/2 fewer points than you should. Take San Diego State and lay the points.
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL, Boise
Temple (-6 1/2) versus Wyoming: This looks like another case where you can lay less than you should on the favorite. With a Sagarin Rating of 76.96, Temple is a full 11 points superior to Wyoming, which checks in with a Sagarin Rating of 65.96. But college football betting fans only have to lay 6 1/2. Take Temple and lay the points.
Dec. 22
MAACO BOWL, Las Vegas
Arizona State (+14) versus Boise State: At first blush it might seem like Boise State, which averaged better than 43 points per game during the regular season, would have little difficulty covering a two-touchdown spread against Arizona State. But the Sagarin Ratings say otherwise: At 89.31, Boise State is 8.63 points, not 14 points, better than Arizona State. Take Arizona State plus the points.
Dec. 26
INDEPENDENCE BOWL, Shreveport, La.
Missouri (-4 1/2) versus North Carolina: Missouri, which faced a number of solid teams in the Big 12, including Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, should be a much bigger favorite over North Carolina, from the lesser regarded ACC. Mizzou has a Sagarin Rating of 85.47, nearly 12 points higher than the Sagarin Rating of 73.68 for North Carolina. So laying 4 1/2 when the line should be 11 1/2 or 12 is an obvious play. Take Missouri and lay the points.
Dec. 30
ARMED FORCES BOWL, Dallas
Tulsa (+3) versus BYU: If you believe in the raw data, sportsbooks have the wrong favorite for this bowl game. With a Sagarin Rating of 76.77, Tulsa should be a 1 1/2-point favorite over BYU, which has a listed Sagarin Rating of 75.40. It’s not a huge change but when you get a field goal with a team that should be the betting choice, it’s often wise to pounce. Take Tulsa plus the points.
Dec. 31
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL, Houston
Texas A&M (-10) versus Northwestern: It doesn’t hurt that it’s less than 100 miles from College Station to Houston but what really should have college football betting fans salivating is the pointspread. Texas A&M, which has a Sagarin Rating of 87.67, is 15.25 points superior to Northwestern, which checks in at 72.42. So laying just 10 points is a light load to carry. Take Texas A&M and lay the points.
SUN BOWL, El Paso, Texas
Utah (+3 1/2) versus Georgia Tech: Getting more than a field goal with the superior team has to bring a smile to the face of sports betting enthusiasts. That’s the case here as Utah, 77.79, actually has a Sagarin Rating that is more than five points higher than Georgia Tech, 72.45. Throw in the line and those who follow this scientific approach are getting a pointspread swing worth almost nine points. Take Utah plus the points.
Jan. 2
OUTBACK BOWL, Tampa, Florida
Michigan State (+4) versus Georgia: Perhaps the overall quality of the SEC is affecting sportsbooks but according to hard numbers, Georgia, 83.09, should not be favored over Michigan State, which has a Sagarin Rating of 85.54. What’s more, you get four points with MSU. Take Michigan State plus the points.
ROSE BOWL, Pasadena, California
Wisconsin (+6) versus Oregon: It’s frightening going against that high-powered Oregon attack but Wisconsin hardly is a slouch, registering a Sagarin Rating of 93.59 that actually exceeds Oregon’s 92.78 rating buy almost a point. That’s just too tempting to ignore. Take Wisconsin plus the points.
Jan. 3
SUGAR BOWL, New Orleans
Michigan (-2) versus Virginia Tech: Sportsbooks opened Michigan as just a 2-point favorite over Virginia Tech a light tariff to pay for a Wolverines teams that has a Sagarin Rating of 88.95, nearly 10 1/2 points higher than the 78.46 number assigned to Virginia Tech. Take Michigan and lay the points.
Jan. 8
GODADDY.COM BOWL, Mobile, Alabama
Pittsburgh (-4) versus SMU: With a Sagarin rating of 77.86, Pittsburgh is nearly 10 points superior to SMU, which has a Sagarin Rating of 67.93. Given that you only have to lay four points, it’s like stealing a touchdown with the panthers. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.
Can college football betting fans make a profit during this bowl game season by ignoring traditional wagering factors such as motivation, playing style and matchups and concentrating solely on raw numerical data?
We’re about to answer that question.
