I post to help newbies.
I post to share info.
I post to help bettors avoid paying scam services.
Otherwise, I would just make my bets and be done with it.
There is a difference between gambling and investing. Even with investment plays backed by solid data there is still a risk/gambling factor, but it can be reduced, in many ways.
One of the differentiators between a winning sports bettor and a loser is winners take notes for future use. And when the time is right they use those notes to their advantage and profit.
Last year, on 11/22, a Cappers Mall poster said, paraphrased, “I lost 75 units this season. I'll be back when bowl season starts.”
I replied, “While I can't make any promises I can try and help. I have a second half adjustment profile I use for bowls that is 3-0, 3-0, 3-0 and 4-0 over the past four seasons.”
Some posters may have seen this and said, “13-0? Yeah, sure.”
That's understandable. Problem is the 'net it full of BS posters, scams and attention seeking gits. It's hard to know when someone is being honest and a real opportunity is presented.
True to form, we (“we” because I shared the plays here last year) had three plays, again, and it went 3-0 again.
Will it perform as well this year?
Hell if I know, I don't have a crystal ball.
But I do know that at 16-0, with 5 years of data backing it up, it's worth making note of, now, and looking into when the time comes, if you're a player of that mind.
I’ll share a few profiles here at Cappers Mall this season, mostly NCAA. I don’t do a lot of NFL work and my NBA work is not perfected yet (a nice way of saying it sucks) which is why I bet smaller units on both those sports.
I offer no LOCKS, BOLD PRINT, HUNDRED DIME PLAYs or 1,000 STARS, just a lot of words and numbers as I share my type of plays, records, buys, logic behind buys and money management thoughts (and the occasional “may-you-spend-the-rest-of-your-life-connected-to-a-colostomy-bag” well-wishes for any coach or player who screws me, my math and my plays.)
The NCAA football Over/Under profile I play was, for Unders, 16-5 in ’07, 38-16 in ’08, 21-20 in ’09 and 18-9 last season. Overall that’s 93-50. That’s 65% with almost 150 plays documented (most of them shared at various forums on the ‘net if anybody cares to research them) in three-and-a-half seasons (I figured the profile out half-way through ’07 season.) And in those 50 losses were a few games that were Under at the end of regulation but lost in OT. Losses on the chart, but further proof to me that the profile works at about a 67% clip.
Clint said, “A good man knows his limitations.” A winning sports bettor is the same way – he knows his strengths, he knows his weaknesses. And he adjusts his play accordingly. A losing sports bettor is kind of like the old definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Some tips to help you win this season:
Keep a log book.
Chart your play.
Wager in like dollar amounts, don’t vary betting sizes – it is difficult enough to stay above the break-even-plus-juice mark, by varying unit sizes most bettors make it harder to stay on the right side of that line.
Learn your strengths: NFL or NCAA? Sides or totals? Dogs or Favs? Do you bet on games just because they’re on TV? If you do, what is your record on them? If it is a losing record do you bet a smaller unit on TV action plays than your regular play? And if you don’t know your record on these categories – why not? Betting is like a business - how can you increase your bottom line if you don’t keep P&L records??!!
I don’t present any of the above as law.
None of it is right, or wrong.
It’s just what works best for me, and I do OK. And it could work for some of you, too.
Discipline is the key, along with self-knowledge and hard work.
Books are in business because the overwhelming majority of betters lose.
Stay true to your principles, bet smart and you’ll be in the minority.
Good luck this season . . .
Sonny Palermo has scribbled columns for Winners Edge, Ring Sports and other magazines, and websites such as American Thinker, Newsrealblogs, The Daily Caller and IHatetheMedia. He has done regular guest appearances on FOX Sports radio in Vegas and nationally on SIRIUS.
