Three months into the current season and with no team having established itself as anything close to invincible, savvy college basketball betting fans are looking to find value in futures before the start of the Big Dance, March 15.
After a turbulent week in which the top four teams in last week's Associated Press Top 25 Poll all lost, Duke (25-2 SU, 15-11 ATS), which opened as a 4/1 favorite and has held the top spot in the polls several times, was back on top Feb. 22, having convinced both voters and sportsbooks that the Blue Devils are the team to beat—at least for this week. Duke now is 3/1 to win its second consecutive NCAA Men's Basketball Championship (and fourth title overall) when the nets are cut down at Reliant Stadium in Houston, April 4.
Sportsbooks also think highly of Ohio State (25-2 SU, 11-13 ATS) and Kansas (26-2 SU, 15-11 ATS), the respective 4/1 and 6/1 second and third choices to be the last team standing after a trio of action-packed weeks of March Madness. Having started the year at 18/1, the Buckeyes have been a bit of a surprise, reeling off 24 straight wins and rising to the top of the polls before losing two of their last three, at Purdue and at Wisconsin. The Jayhawks, a 12/1 proposition three months ago, beat Kansas State by 24 at home then lost to the Wildcats by 16 on the road during a recent 16-day span, results that argue against both the team's consistency and ability to win tough games away from home.
Once you get past Duke, Ohio State and Kansas, NCAA Men's Basketball betting aficionados can demand—and dutifully receive--at least double digits on any other team, including Pittsburgh, Texas and Kentucky, each offered at odds of 12/1. The Panthers (24-3 SU, 11-11 ATS), who opened the season at 18/1, appear to be the best team in a brutally tough league, the Big East. Meanwhile, the Longhorns (23-4 SU), who at 30/1 were ranked behind Big 12 foes Kansas State, Kansas and Baylor when the season began, have been very friendly to bettors, notching a 16-6 record against the spread (ATS).
Though just 19-7 straight up (SU) and ranked outside the top 20, the Kentucky Wildcats (10-11 ATS) join Pittsburgh and Texas at 12/1. Having begun the year at 10/1, maybe sportsbooks are reluctant to admit that they may have made a mistake. At any rate, 12/1 doesn't look fat enough for a team that has lost at Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. All teams that are successful in the NCAA Tournament have to win on the road.
Washington (18-8, 14-10-1 ATS) which began the year at 50/1 in futures, is down to 15/1. Sorry but I can't give you a reason why the Huskies, coming off a defeat at Arizona, shouldn't be twice that price.
At 25/1, up from an opening future book price of 20/1, Villanova (21-7 SU, 12-13 ATS), which is battle-tested in the ridiculously competitive Big East, seems a sounder play for college basketball betting devotees.
Other Big East teams at hefty odds include Georgetown (21-6 SU, 15-11 ATS) at 30/1, Syracuse (23-6 SU, 11-16 ATS) at 35/1, Louisville (20-7 SU, 13-10-1 ATS) at 40/1, and Connecticut (20-6 SU, 12-8 ATS) at 75/1.
The Mountain West Conference lacks the history or cache of the Big East, ACC and Big 10 but with San Diego State (27-1 SU, 16-10 ATS) and BYU (25-2 SU, 11-12 ATS) each ranked in the top seven nationally, there's respect with the two outfits each down from 60/1 to 35/1 in futures.
Florida (21-5 SU, 9-13 ATS) and Vanderbilt (2-6 SU, 13-8-1 ATS) each have beaten SEC rival Kentucky and are higher ranked than the Wildcats so 35/1 on either one may look better to gamblers than 12/1 does on Kentucky.
If triple digits are your thing, Michigan State (15-11 SU, 8-16-1 ATS), which opened the season at 10/1 and now is 100/1, could be your team. But the Spartans are no sure thing to even get into the tournament, much less win it.
The regular season may be coming to a close but wily college basketball betting fans understand that it's never too late to find future book overlays on the NCAA Tournament.
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