Newbie Question

[ferrari355spider]

Hey guys, very nice forum, seems like a lot of pros on here. Anyways, the question is what % is a pro gambler expected to hit or should be content with in a "lifetime" or long term... Thanks in advance.

[Double Down]

58% will make u a profit

[ferrari355spider]

So will 53%, right?

[d107]

a good simple tip article i found

Money Management in Sports Gambling

For as long as there has been some form of betting there have been betting systems that are supposed to give you the edge you need to make more money. Many of these systems show you ways to vary the sizes of your bets and, in doing so, fill your pockets with cash. Unfortunately, as many bettors have found out over the years, these systems don't work and the false hope they provide can make them money-losing traps.

The main problem with changing the size of your bets over and over is that it disrupts your cash flow and raises the point of breaking even that you must hit and exceed to make a profit. Here's what that means: Say you're betting $50 per game and you've just bet on five games for a total of $250. You go on a bad losing steak and pick the wrong team on all five games putting you $250 in the hole. Now according to your so-called never-fail system, during a losing streak you should decrease your bets. So you lower your bets 50 percent down to $25 a game. You bet on five more games for a total of $125. Even if you win all five of those games you will still be down $125. By decreasing your bet you have increased the number of games you must win to get back to even. You're putting yourself at a disadvantage by making it harder on yourself to break even or make money.

The best way to bet to make a profit and manage your money effectively is to wager a percentage of your bankroll and stick to that percentage. If you can hit the magic number of a 56 percent success rate in your betting picks, you can turn this small percentage into a nice profit. One thing to remember though, as you win and your bankroll increases the percentage of your bankroll also increases. After a year of winning, five percent of your bankroll has risen from what it was a year ago.

To keep your profits on a steady plane, you should re-examine the size of your bankroll on a regular basis and adjust your percentage betting accordingly. One thing to remember though, do not adjust your betting downward if you notice your bankroll has decreased after a bad run. As we said earlier, by decreasing the size of your bet you are making it harder on yourself to get back to even. Ride out these rough patches and your bankroll should recover when you start picking winners again.

[Gerk]

That number really depends on the sport, Very possible as my record shows to be under .500 in baseball and also hockey to name two and make very good money

[d107]

another from about.com

Sports Gambling - Winning Percentage vs. Units Won

If somebody were to ask you if you would rather be a 60-percent handicapper or a 55-percent handicapper, which would you choose? The obvious answer is that it's better to be a 60-percent handicapper, but that isn't necessarily true.

The only statistic that sports bettors should be concerned with is units won, which is the amount of profit, or loss, they have over time, and not worry nearly as much about winning percentage. In the question above, it would be much better to be a 55-percent handicapper if you were playing 150 games a month, as opposed to a 60-percent handicapper playing one game a day. At the end of the month, the 55-percent handicapper would have gone 83-67 for a gain of 9.3 units, while the 60-percent handicapper would have gone 18-12 for a profit of 4.8 units, so the 55-percent handicapper has made nearly twice as much.

The 55-percent handicapper is using what is commonly referred to as the Wal-Mart Approach, which is to have a lot of volume with the expectation of grinding out a small profit. And as is the case with the Arkansas-based giant, many times this will be more profitable than being extremely selective and doing a small amount of volume, even if the mark-up is higher.

With baseball season just around the corner, many sports gamblers will soon be seeing ads from different sports services claiming winning percentages of 65-percent for baseball, and that's entirely possibly, but what the services aren't saying is that the majority of their selections were favorites of -200 or more, turning that 65-percent handicapping into a losing proposition.

Making it more difficult for sports bettors is that some sports services will claim to have won 200 units in a particular sport, but don't mention that they release 10- or 20-unit plays, along with several 100-unit "locks" at the end of the year if things aren't going so well and they need something to base next year's advertising on.

For the bettors that do their own handicapping, however, units won is really the only thing you should be concerned with, as that ultimately is going to translate into the bottom line. A winning percentage of 55-percent sure doesn't sound as sexy as a 60-percent handicapper, but if your volume of plays is high enough, it can certainly be much more profitable.

[ferrari355spider]

Oh sorry guys, I forgot to mention, I want to be strictly a ATS or OU player and using the same exact bet size always.

[ferrari355spider]

Gerk, I guess you do that by betting more units on stronger games?

[Gerk]

Originally Posted by ferrari355spider

Gerk, I guess you do that by betting more units on stronger games?

No actually, Almost all of my bets are the same, unit wise

You can make money by betting on the underdogs in baseball and hockey, in the right spots

You can take two teams, one at +120 and one at +140. If the first one loses and the second one wins, You have gone 1-1 record wise, but have made $40 if you took both of them at $100

So very possible in those sports to be at .500 or lower record wise and still make money

[ferrari355spider]

Gotcha! Let's say I only bet ATS and OU using the same wager size. I am wondering what % do good cappers hit or expect to hit in the long term?

[saddle]

between 55-60%
you can make a shit load of money if you can hit 60

[ferrari355spider]

Nice nice. What's the best way to get 55-60%? Who would you follow, etc? Thanks.

[cuse6189]

Welcome ferrari and GL with your Handicapping

[ferrari355spider]

Thank you, I wish I could handicap, lol

[iggs111]

Originally Posted by ferrari355spider

Thank you, I wish I could handicap, lol

stick around long enough and you will begin to learn the trade sir. Welcome to the mall...