Reduce Your Poker Bad Beats :

[Kramer]

Reducing Bad Beats :
DO NOT see a flop with pocket QUEENS with five other players
in the hand. You'll lose


Qs,qd 39%
AK,KC,38%
7H,8H22%


KD , KS VS ABOVE :
48% ,29% , 21%
AS,AC = 64% , 11% , 22%
COIN FLIP WITH A,K
17% AHEAD OF 7,8

Do you risk all your chips early on a 40% chance hand
of tripling up?
What are odds you lose?

60% 2/3 of time one of other 2 will win with more outs)
If player 3 has pair of 10's ( 2 same)
odds are ; 43% , 38% , 18%
not much dif ...
Perhaps someone has higher pair ...
Lower Pair ?

Now look at heads up vs 1 player :
QD,QS
VS AC,KD = 57% , 43%
QD,QS VS AC,KC SAME
QD,QS VS JD,JS = 80% QUEENS
VS 9H,10H = 80% QUEENS ...

you'll think twice about getting into a showdown with 60:40 odds (in your favor) when you're playing
in a big tournament. Because you know that there's a 40%
chance of getting ELIMINATED... and you know that your
opponent is probably loose enough to risk all his chips on
it.


Choose the high-stakes showdowns when you've already made a
hand... not when you're on a draw. And do it against
opponents who don't have as many chips as you...

When you take everything into consideration, you realize
it's not just about "betting big". It's about adopting BAD
BEATS into your OVERALL STYLE OF PLAY.


let's say you limp-in with a hidden hand like
suited-connectors or a small pocket pair. Then you hit big
on the flop. What do you do?

Obviously there are a lot of considerations. But in GENERAL,
the natural thing to do is SLOW-PLAY it...

But online, you CAN'T do that if there are multiple players
in the hand. Because that's what leads to bad beats.

The key is to BET AGGRESSIVELY and always find out "where
you stand" against your opponents.

And when I say "aggressive", I mean AGGRESSIVE. You'll have
to risk more chips than you're used to in order to get rid
of the chasers.

To find out where you stand in the hand, you've got to use
some special techniques...

The first is simple: RAISE. If your opponent is chasing, he
probably won't go over the top of you. But if he's already
made a hand, he'll re-raise.

Another technique is to simply make two very large bets in a
row. Anyone who calls TWO large bets in a row (after the
flop and turn) probably already made a good hand.
Also, watch for "check-calls".


That's when you have
positioning on your opponent and he checks... then calls
your bet. This is a sure sign of a chaser, or someone with a
marginal hand.

"Check-call" usually translates to:

"Please don't bet... Please don't bet... Damn! He bet. Oh
well I have to call... I have to see the next card..."

DON'T be afraid of scaring EVERYONE out of the pot.
Sometimes you'll mis-judge the situation and EVERYONE will
fold to your bet or raise... and all you'll have won are
some blinds.

That's OK. It will happen... but it's better to err on the
side of TOO AGGRESSIVE rather than getting busted.

AN example. This will show you
how to use bad beats to your ADVANTAGE...

Let's say you're in the big blind. You pick up your cards:

Jd-9c

Three players limp-in... including the small blind. You
check to see a free flop.

The flop hits:

Jc-9h-3d

Nice. Top two pair.

The guy in the small blind is first to act... and he comes
out firing with a medium-sized bet. Now it's on you. What's
the play?

You have to raise. You want the next two players OUT and to
go heads-up with the SB. He'll probably call your raise if
he came out firing first...

But let's say you DON'T raise. Let's say you call and the other two players call.

Now let's look at your PERCENTAGE CHANCES of winning this
hand... based on some "hypothetical cards" that your
opponents are holding.

Let's say the guy in the small blind is holding:

Qs-10s

That means he just flopped the open-ended straight draw.

The other two players have:

Ad-9d and 2c-2h

The guy with A-9 has middle pair. He can hope for the Ace or
runner-runner diamonds.

Deuces boy on the button is just looking for a third deuce.

IF THIS WERE THE SITUATION, WHAT ARE YOUR ODDS OF WINNING?

Well, if the hand plays out with all four of you, the odds
of you winning are just 45.9%.

That's right... LESS THAN 1/2!

Now if you were playing this hand in real life and lost to
either:

- The Ace on the river...
- A deuce...
- Or a King or an eight...

...you'd probably call it a "bad beat".

At least it would FEEL like a bad beat, right?

After all, your odds of winning are HIGHER than anyone
else's!

But the fact remains, your odds of winning this hand are
LESS THAN 50%.
Now here's the kicker...

Probably MOST of your low-stakes opponents online WOULD call
a medium-sized bet with those hands...

SO, the solution is to raise. You already know that. When
you raise, your odds go way up...

If you raise enough to force only the small blind to call,
your odds of winning are about 70%.
Sure beats below 50%!

Now... the turn comes:

7h

Great. You know this didn't help him... He checks to you,
which suggests he has the straight draw or a marginal hand.

Now THIS is where you make your move.

After the turn your odds of winning are over 80%.
LEVERAGE
THOSE ODDS.

If you know your opponent is on a draw MAKE HIM PAY FOR IT.

UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES should you let him see a free river.
Because if he misses he's going to fold.

This is where your all-in move is good. You've got an 80%
chance... and your opponent is feeling pot-committed.

Get all your money in the middle RIGHT NOW.

OK, so you go all-in. Your opponent calls with the
open-ended straight draw... all he can pray for is a King or
an eight...

The river hits:

...?

The key is to LEVERAGE those loose players by UNDERSTANDING
what makes them "tick".
LEVERAGE means RAISING THE STAKES. You've got to put all
your money in the middle and be OK with losing it 1/5 of the
time... and enjoy the rewards of winning MASSIVE POTS the
other four times.
UNDERSTAND 20 OUT OF 100 HANDS WILL LOSE ...
BUT BETTING WISELY CAN IMPROVE YOUR ODDS ...

Now the IMPLICATION of raising the stakes is that you must
CHOOSE BATTLES WISELY.

Don't bluff very much... certainly not from the beginning of
a hand. Only bluff towards the end when you sense weakness.

Choose the high-stakes showdowns when you've already made a
hand... not when you're on a draw. And do it against
opponents who don't have as many chips as you...

When you take everything into consideration, you realize
it's not just about "betting big". It's about adopting BAD
BEATS into your OVERALL STYLE OF PLAY.

[mark12]

Nice info. Thanks for passing it along.

[jim1701]

thnx Kramer...this has helped me 10x fold!