Sharp Vs Square "Money Management"

[Kramer]

HOW "SHARPS" USE MONEY MANAGEMENT

BY NICK BOGDANOCICH
Former Las Vegas Casino Lines Maker

Imagine for a second that you're betting on a coin flipping contest.

Neither side has an edge.
You get to call it in the air.

You're betting on your pick and your opponent takes the other side.

Over time you'll win about half and lose about half.
Can you go broke doing that?
Yes!

Going broke is more about your bankroll management
than your selection process.

If you decide to load up most or all of your bankroll
on one flip, you can go broke very easily if you're wrong.

Most people understand that.

You take a big risk to get a big reward.

What many gamblers fail to realize is that you can go broke at 50/50
even without taking big risks if you don't account for "variance."

Variance is a fancy term used to explain the
ups and downs of probability.

Sometimes you win in streaks.
Sometimes you can't catch a break for awhile.



If you don't have a big enough bankroll to handle
those down streaks,
then you can go broke even if you're long term
coin flip record isn't out of the ordinary.

This is one of the secrets that help casinos
and sportsbooks make so much money from gamblers.

The "house' basically has an unlimited bankroll.
YOU DON'T ...




They can keep betting and betting
until variance busts players who hit that cold streak.
Let's go back to that coin flipping contest.


Let's say you have $200 to bet, and your opponent is a billionaire.
Who's going to go broke first? Obviously, YOU.

If you're betting $50 a flip, it's very likely that an unlucky stretch
at some point will have you at four games below .500.

That's it. You're tapped out.


If you're betting $25 a flip, variance will have you
at eight games below .500 at some point.


Even if you're betting just $10 a flip,
if you play the game long enough the laws of math suggest
you'll be 20 games below .500 at some point.


The game ends and the billionaire keeps your money
when you go home.
His bottomless pit of money makes it certain
that he'll never run out.

THINK ABOUT THAT POWER FOR A WHILE ...

Casinos and sportsbooks will make a lot of money
just by default just by showing up
with the biggest bankroll in the game.

They won't ever go broke.
Some people will. The sportsbooks get that money.
Now, add in:

An 11/10 bonus for the sportsbooks on the games they win.
You guys know that's the vigorish, and it makes it even harder for gamblers to make money.
If you were paying 11/10 on your losses in a coin flipping contest, you'd go broke faster.
Your break even point would be a shade under 53%.
An even bigger edge for sportsbooks on parlay bets or parlay cards.
An additional edge earned because oddsmakers know your tendencies, and try to stack the lines against you.
This is the challenge handicappers and sports bettors are dealing with.
Sharp lines, unfavorable odds, and a bankroll that's smaller than their opponent.
A lot of handicappers think they can beat the lines over time. They're confident they can hit 55% or better
given their knowledge of sports.
They forget about variance though.
With the odds stacked in this manner, a 55% record will STILL have enough variance
to bust them out if they're not careful.


EVERYBODY has bad streaks.

If you're overbetting your bankroll,
a 2-12 run can knock you out of action
even if you were destined to sit at 55-45 after 100 picks.

It's very important that you bet the way "sharps" bet
in Las Vegas and Reno.

That's the term out here for professional wagerers.

"Sharps" are the pro's.
"Squares" are the public.

Sportsbooks make a ton of money every year because
the squares don't know what they're doing.

The sharps trim off enough of that by betting
properly to make a living.
Don't bet like a square. Bet like a sharp!

That means:


Putting the odds in your favor as much as possible
by shopping for the best number,
or recognizing it when you see it.

Too many people think about "shopping" as looking through different
stores for the best price.

You should be thinking about how lines move during the course of the week,
and finding the right TIME to act. That can mean laying 2.5 points on a favorite on a Monday,
or taking 7.5 points on an underdog an hour before kickoff.

Right now, "shopping" for lines is more about WHEN you act than WHERE.


Avoiding propositions that don't pay off at fair prices.

Sharps only play parlay cards if they have old numbers
on them that can be exploited.

Sharps generally don't play parlays at all, unless there's a correlation
on the side and total in the same game they can profit from.


Teasers are limited to "basic strategy" bets that focus on games where moving the line six points crosses both the three and the seven.

How do YOU bet parlays and teasers?
Are you playing like a sharp, or a square?

Remembering that any edge you pass up
is the same as leaving money on the table.


Sharps are tenacious about finding edges and betting them.
Out here they're called "advantage players," and they're likely to show up any place there's a good deal.
If a store is offering "No Juice Thursdays," ("juice" is slang for "vigorish" as most of you know),
there will be a long line of sharps at the window betting the maximum.


If there are some parlay cards lying around with old pointspreads on them, sharps will parlay
the off-lines and go for the score. If sportsbook operators see what's happening and refuse to take the cards,
then the sharps will hire people off the street to place the bets!
Using the proper percentage of their bankroll on each play.
Sharps tend to bet a lot of volume at manageable amounts.
But, they'll step out with a big play when they believe there's a significant edge.
They still play within their bankrolls. Remember that sharps have a much bigger bankroll than you!
Many pool their financial resources and work in teams, which gives them even more insurance against variance.
You've probably heard the general counsel that you should bet 2% of your bankroll on your regular plays,
and no more than 5% on your biggest plays. Sound advice.
Finding ways to put the pieces together to maximize profit.
Sharps may have 8% of their bankroll on a favorite -2.5, and 4% of their bankroll on the underdog +4 in the same game.
That's 12% of their bankroll tied up temporarily. But they're only risking 4%.
If the game lands exactly on three, then they win 12% don't they?
That's a combination of line shopping AND sharp money management that really separates the pro's from the public.
Spreading out action over several plays to keep bad luck from having too big an influence.
You probably know some guys who have gotten impatient and put most or all of their bankroll on one play.
They were either in "double up to catch up" mode, or just overconfident in their ability to dodge bad luck.
This is a recipe for disaster. Even if it doesn't get you the first time, it will get you eventually.


Picking football isn't a coin-flipping contest for the best handicappers.
But, there are still similarities because of the bounce of the ball and the nature of human performance.
Imagine a coin that's weighted to come up heads 55% of the time, or 60% of the time.
That's what you're dealing with. That means variance is in play. You need to account for it with your money management.

You've got a "Fiinite banroll"

The sportsbooks are a virtual billionaire
like the example at the beginning of the article.
They're trying to bide their time until variance takes you out of action.
Stay in action by betting within your means, by playing at the most favorable numbers,
and by avoiding propositions that don't pay off at true odds.

[tmlfan4ever]

The sportsbooks are a virtual billionaire
like the example at the beginning of the article.
They're trying to bide their time until variance takes you out of action.
Stay in action by betting within your means, by playing at the most favorable numbers, and by avoiding propositions that don't pay off at true odds.

Great advice!

[QuadzillaXXX]

Nice article. This last week of going 2-9 is a great example of why I'm glad I don't bet the bundle on a few games lol my season would be over right now.