83rd Annual Academy Awards - Feb 27, 2011

[Mendoza Line]

After seeing The King's Speech last night, I've now seen almost every movie involved in this year's awards. I still need to see Biutiful, which returns here locally on Friday, but I've seen 8 of the 10 Best Picture nominees.

My take on the big awards.....

Odds from The Greek

Best Picture

111 The Kings Speech -525
112 The Social Network +415
113 Any Other Result +1615

My favorite movie of the year is Black Swan, but an Aronofsky-style movie isn't likely to win, even though he's one of my favorites. I think Social Network wins the Oscar, due to timeliness (think of Time Magazine's "Person of the Year: YOU" issue a couple years ago) and just (IMO) the "it was much better than expected" quality. I really liked Social Network, but I liked True Grit, Inception, Winter's Bone, and The King's Speech more.

Best Actor

115 Colin Firth (The Kings Speech) -3000
116 Any Other Result +1400

I think both Colin Firth and Jeff Bridges were tremendous, but I can't see the Academy awarding Bridges again so soon. Still need to see Javier Bardem (who is always great) in Biutiful, but Firth gets it for me right now.

Best Actress

121 Natalie Portman (Black Swan) -1015
122 Any Other Result +645

I can see Portman easily, as this is her "now you can start taking me seriously" role, despite her rom-com with Ashton Kutcher that is still in some theaters. Jennifer Lawrence was great in Winter's Bone, but no one has heard of her, and if Annette Bening wins, it wouldn't be a complete surprise.

Best Director

125 David Fincher (The Social Network) -155
126 Tom Hooper (The Kings Speech) +135
127 Any Other Result +2050

Both Fincher and Hooper took seemingly tedious subjects (writing computer code and speech therapy, respectively) and managed, with help of tremendous musical scores and great editing (Social Network) and great photography (Kings Speech) to build drama and tension. I love Aronofsky's style with Black Swan, and wouldn't be surprised by the Coens winning for True Grit. If I were betting it, "Any Other Result" seems like it has some value.

Best Supporting Actor

131 Christian Bale (The Fighter) -745
132 Any Other Result +515

All anyone talks about is Bale, but Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech was the best IMO. Already won Best Actor for Shine, so we'll see how the Academy wants to spread the love.

Best Supporting Actress

135 Melissa Leo (The Fighter) -285
136 Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) +325
137 Any Other Result +605

Melissa Leo was my favorite here. Hailee Steinfeld was great, too, but they'll make her wait, a la Ellen Page in Juno.

Best Cinematography

151 True Grit -185
152 Any Other Result +155

To me, almost any DP who isn't stupid can find great shots in locations used in True Grit. I'll take the Kubrick-style creativity of Black Swan. Can't say Inception because it's more of an editing/visual effects film, and may win both of those awards.

Best Original Score

165 The Social Network +105
166 King Speech +185
167 Any Other Result +245

Both were great, but Reznor's music in The Social Network was good enough to win Best Supporting Actor.

*************************************

Opinions, comments?

[Mendoza Line]

For reference, here are some full lists of nominees....

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Actor
Javier Bardem
Jeff Bridges
Jesse Eisenberg
Colin Firth
James Franco

Best Actress
Annette Bening
Nicole Kidman
Jennifer Lawrence
Natalie Portman
Michelle Williams

Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful, Mexico
Dogtooth, Greece
In A Better World, Denmark
Incendies, Canada
Outside the Law, Algeria

Best Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network


**and BTW, I've guessed Best Picture and Best Actor exactly for 5 straight years.

[TheLink]

Was Winter's Bone any good 'Doza?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Toy Story 3? Really?

[Mendoza Line]

Originally Posted by TheLink

Was Winter's Bone any good 'Doza?

Loved Winter's Bone. Tense, dark, well-paced, with solid performances throughout. See it in a theater if you can.

[Mendoza Line]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Toy Story 3? Really?

I know.

One of the two I didn't see. Also didn't see The Kids are Alright. I like Mark Ruffalo and Anette Benning, though, so may catch it eventually.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by JohnnyMapleLeaf

Toy Story 3? Really?

largest grossing animated film of all time (I believe). Plus a moving story that appealed to kids young and old. I enjoyed it alot. Is it THE best movie of the year ? No, it is not. But if the list includes 10, then it deserves to be nominated.

[thinkingdog]

Originally Posted by mendoza line

best picture

111 the kings speech -525
112 the social network +415
113 any other result +1615

i liked the social network immensely, but i do think that the king's speech has some pretty good momentum recently...it's really a two horse race here. I think the king's speech pulls out a win by a nose because it's a nicer and more emotionally gratifying feel-good movie while the social network, albeit a technically better film in both direction and writing, is a bit too cynical for the academy's tastes.

best actor

115 colin firth (the kings speech) -3000
116 any other result +1400

agreed - colin firth is as good as gold here.


best actress

121 natalie portman (black swan) -1015
122 any other result +645

this is portman's year and almost a consolation prize as black swan is not likely to win anything else.


best director

125 david fincher (the social network) -155
126 tom hooper (the kings speech) +135
127 any other result +2050

another two horse race...

The dga chose hooper, the golden globes chose fincher, and the british academy awards went against their countryman and also chose fincher.

The director's guild is usually a good barometer for who takes the oscar, and best pic and best director usually go hand in hand, but this year could be an anomaly. A toss up here...but i'll go with fincher since he's responsible for some of the most groundbreaking films in the past fifteen years (seven, fight club, panic room, benjamin button) and the social network was so wonderfully crafted. Hooper is too new to the game, and his direction has been criticized for being relatively hackneyed and amateurish.


best supporting actor

131 christian bale (the fighter) -745
132 any other result +515

all anyone talks about is bale, but geoffrey rush in the king's speech was the best imo. Already won best actor for shine, so we'll see how the academy wants to spread the love.

christian bale should win here...

best supporting actress

135 melissa leo (the fighter) -285
136 hailee steinfeld (true grit) +325
137 any other result +605

...and same with melissa leo, but historically speaking some of the most interesting upsets have occurred in the "supporting" categories.

best cinematography

151 true grit -185
152 any other result +155

true grit should win as roger deakins, whose incredible body of work includes the shawshank redemption, fargo, & no country for old men, has never won an oscar before. This time he's good to go.

best original score

165 the social network +105
166 king speech +185
167 any other result +245

reznor's score was touching, affecting, and haunting at times and deserves to win. I can scarcely even remember the music in the king's speech. Black swan had a good innovative soundtrack, but not enough to win this category.

*************************************

opinions, comments?

see above

[Ricky Tan]

Are we having a Contest for the Awards?

[Mendoza Line]

Good question.

Don't know if we've done one before.

[be47320]

norm mcdonald just had the best tweet ever

normmacdonald Norm MacDonald
by the time the dead guy montage starts kirk douglas will be in it

[HAMILROCK]

Originally Posted by be47320

norm mcdonald just had the best tweet ever

normmacdonald Norm MacDonald
by the time the dead guy montage starts kirk douglas will be in it

what name u under for twitter?

[be47320]

im not on twitter, just saw his tweet on a website

[be47320]

cory haim got snubbed on the death roll call, such bull shit

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by be47320

norm mcdonald just had the best tweet ever

normmacdonald Norm MacDonald
by the time the dead guy montage starts kirk douglas will be in it

who is that guy? dude is the new commentator of high stakes poker and he fuking blows