After Week Four NFL Betting Systems :

[Kramer]

AFTER WEEK 4 BETTING SYSTEMS :

Find the teams that are ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in BOTH
rushing defense and passing defense , and bet them when they are playing at home .

This seems very simplistic , but if you think about it the general public likes to wager on
offences , yet these defensive teams are 193-139 (58%) ATS SINCE 1990 .

Furthermore if we eliminate favorites by this angle with 10 points or more , the
single digit favorites and rare home underdogs are 176-122 or 59% ATS

This only produces about 18 plays per year , so there will be weeks with no plays .

System # 2 is this :

Compare the rushing yards per game in home games only for the home team with the rushing yards per game in road games only for the road team.
If the difference is 4 yards per game or less the game is a pass .

If one team is four yards or more than the other an is an underdog , its an automatic play .

If the team with more yards is tha favorite , you would set what we call
a “rushing line” by dividing the yardage difference by four .
If this result is at least a half point higher than the posted line it would become a play .

To illustrate , lets say the home team averages 115.5 rushing yards at home
and the road team averages 90.5 rushing yards on the road .

The difference of 25 yards would convert to a rushing line of the home team -6.25 (25/4)

Since a difference of at least .50 is needed , our favorite would be a play up to 5.5 ,
a pass at -6 or more ,
This easy to follow method is 80-59 (57%) from week 5 last 2 years .

[T100]

hmmmm, interesting Kramer

[g_rock65]

Going into Week 4, which teams are plays?