Analysts don't like YouTube's chances

Dr. Jack · #1 10-02-2006, 06:17 PM

Analysts don't like YouTube's chances

By Greg Sandoval

Another Internet research firm has predicted doom for YouTube's business model.

Copyright issues that have plagued video-sharing site YouTube since its official launch almost a year ago will mean that "YouTube will get sued. And it will lose," wrote Josh Bernoff and Ted Schadler, analysts for Forrester Research, on a blog posted last week.

Lawsuits will trigger a chain reaction, according to the analysts, in which YouTube will be forced to remove all copyrighted material--and that means excising most of the professionally made content. What's left will leave YouTube with videos that are "a lot less interesting," said the Forrester analysts.

YouTube representatives did not respond to an interview request.

The Forrester opinion comes three months after research firm IDC came to a similar conclusion and less than a week after HDNet founder Mark Cuban told a group of advertisers that "only a moron would buy YouTube." Both Forrester and IDC research companies argue that YouTube will face the same battle fought and lost by file-sharing site Napster.

In a now-famous court case, Napster argued unsuccessfully that it wasn't responsible for people misusing its file-sharing system to steal music.

YouTube says much the same thing. Most of the material on YouTube is homemade, meaning that the video's creator is the same person who posts it to the site. However, some YouTube fans violate copyright law by sharing video of copyright material from movies, music videos and TV shows.
In other news:

YouTube executives immediately pull down any clip once a copyright violation is brought to their attention. The company, which sees more than 16 million visitors per month, is also creating technology that will help identify and block pirated material.

San Mateo, Calif.-based YouTube has proven that it's not at odds with some of the most influential entertainment companies by cutting marketing and advertising deals with the likes of Warner Music and NBC.

But that won't be enough, said Forrester.

"You may tell me that companies like Warner Music are happy to work with YouTube, just as Bertelsmann was willing to work with Napster," the analysts wrote. "But for every company that wants to do a Warner-type deal, there will be others like Universal that won't stand for it.

"It only takes one unhappy media company--Disney, Sony, CBS or News Corp. for example--to force the company's hand. And the cases on this point, from Napster to Grokster at the Supreme Court, are clear."

The Judge · #2 10-02-2006, 10:26 PM

Probably true that this great site will be taken down by scumbag attorneys but in the meantime, they have put out some great stuff.

Sorry Jonnyblaze, Keith and any of the other ambulance chasers in our midst but you guys know better than the rest of us what I'm sayin' here.

Litigation will be the ruin of this country.

jaypasco · #3 10-03-2006, 01:30 AM

i will cry if this happens

jonnyblaze · #4 10-03-2006, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Judge

Probably true that this great site will be taken down by scumbag attorneys but in the meantime, they have put out some great stuff.

Sorry Jonnyblaze, Keith and any of the other ambulance chasers in our midst but you guys know better than the rest of us what I'm sayin' here.

Litigation will be the ruin of this country.

Lol. everyone hates attorneys.......until they need one.

And everyone does at sometime.

guzzi · #5 10-03-2006, 03:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

Lol. everyone hates attorneys.......until they need one.

And everyone does at sometime.

hope day come thru fur me...

The Judge · #6 10-03-2006, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

Lol. everyone hates attorneys.......until they need one.

And everyone does at sometime.

My comments were meant to be percieved "tounge in cheek", JB. Not hating on lawyers, just sick of frivolous lawsuits.

Henry09 · #7 10-03-2006, 08:55 AM

you tube is like napster or kazzaa.

always another to replace it.

DadAph · #8 10-03-2006, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

remove all copyrighted material .

Once I did feed the YouTube search with keyword "Pink Floyd" and linked the amazing results to the original Pink Floyd online forum, where obsessed fans and selectors were going nuts, happy and thankful to get rare stuff (interviews, concerts, making offs, etc.); everybody felt like a great Pink Floyd museum had opened it's doors. A week or so later I tried a YouTube link to that Pink Floyd material, as I had it stored in my favorites, but I got only this message: "This video has been removed at the request of copyright owner Pink Floyd Management, Ltd. because its content was used without permission."

That's sad. And I don't believe it really serves Pink Floyd (a dead band!) that nobody can see their stuff anymore.

DadAph · #9 10-03-2006, 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

remove all copyrighted material .

Maybe such step can open doors to more creativity?!

However: There are other pages where everybody can upload stuff for free and people do.

amhlilhaus · #10 10-04-2006, 08:38 AM

I understand the need to copyright material, but if no one ever watches it why have it copyrighted? you'll never see the news where a weatherman freaks out over a cockroach ever again, yet it's 'copyrighted'. get over yourselves.