Ask the Oddsmaker: Sharp answers

[BTO]

By Keith Glantz

Question: Heading into conference tourney time, do you shade higher profile teams that need to make a strong tournament run to make the Big Dance, like say a Colorado or an Air Force this year?

Answer: Good question but really, must-win teams don’t always win, let alone cover. The only sport where the books consistently fear must-win situations is Baseball. In college football, college basketball, NFL and NBA, oddsmakers and the sportsbooks can make adjustments in the pointspread to hopefully overcome the must-win favorites, but in baseball, all the team has to do is win.

Backtracking a little, the books certainly fear a rash of must-win favorites getting there in the sports with pointspreads, especially in the NFL, but again, at some point the dog becomes the value for the wise guys and professional handicappers. In fact, let’s turn to Covers Expert Steve Merril for a handicapper’s point of view. “Must-win situations is one of the most overrated factors in sports,” Merril says. “Both the betting public and oddsmakers over-adjust the line based on must-win games, but if these teams were good enough to win when they had to then they wouldn`t be in a must-win situation. “Teams also play tight in these situations and often do not play well.”

Question: How much do Senior Days/Nights factor into oddsmakers` lines?

Answer: About the same as homecoming in college football: nothing, nada, zero, zilch. Well at least in my opinion. To be fair, I checked with Covers Expert Dave Malinsky for his words of wisdom. “Once upon a time we used to find major edges in these games, but that has subsided significantly over time,” Malinsky says. “Now only the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament, which means that the emotion of the last game at home is not such a big deal because there are so many more games yet to be played.”

Question: What challenges await oddsmakers for the World Baseball Classic since they`re unfamiliar with numerous pitchers and players?

Answer: Well, I’m using a runline and juice if the moneyline won’t work. I don’t believe that the starting pitchers will have anywhere near the impact they do in the regular season because I assume most will spend limited time on the mound. So the lines will have to be based more on the talent levels of the teams rather than on the starting pitchers. Anyway, I have to start getting ready for my Fantasy Baseball draft so

I’ll be watching pre-season baseball rather than paying much attention to the World Baseball Classic.

Question: Overall, how did books do on this year`s Winter Olympics?

Answer: The books here in Vegas didn’t lose a bet. Of course they didn’t win one either since taking wagers on the Olympics is forbidden here. It seems that Congress had a problem with Nevada taking wagers on the Olympics and high school sports (that was always a no-no though) when certain senators were attempting to ban sports bets on college sports in our extremely well-regulated State.

They also questioned why it was OK to take wagers on colleges in all states but Nevada, so our regulators finally woke up and changed the regs to allow the sportsbooks to take bets on UNLV and Nevada. However, in an attempt to make peace, they passed regulations to ban bets on the Olympics. Believe me, no one missed it.

Question: Is there a certain month of the year the wise guys tend to do well?

Answer: As crazy as this question seems, there are actually certain times of the year when the sharps really have their way. In the NBA and college basketball, November is the month that the books would rather eliminate. October periodically causes some stress in the NFL, while July is normally a horror show in baseball for the books. In September when the rosters expand, the teams that have nothing to play for cause some havoc in MLB for the books.

I wondered if this was also true for the professional handicappers so I asked Mr. Merril again for his input.

“I personally have more confidence later in the season of each sport as I have more information and a solid database to work with and a better feel for the teams,” he says. “Of course, the lines are sharper and there is often less value. The key is treating each part of the season with a different handicapping approach.”

Question: Duke, a team that`s always in the public eye, has gone over the total in 11 of its last 13 games. How much are oddsmakers adjusting these totals to compensate?

Answer: I guess not enough, but I won’t really lose too much sleep over it because the books take very little on basketball totals.

Anyway, if anyone is hammering the books on the totals it’s Dave Malinsky, so let’s bug him for this one.

“They are slowly catching up to the fact that this is a much different Duke team this year. The defense and rebounding are much weaker than past editions, so they are relying more on outscoring their opponents than holding them down.

“Getting caught up in so many close games has also led to some late “scramble” situations, which has added to the scoreboard tallies.

Let’s turn now to Stephen Nover for this week’s fantasy baseball question.

Question: I have a late first-round pick in my National League-only draft with the offensive categories being batting average, homers, RBIs and steals. I`m considering an outfielder with my choices probably coming down to Bobby Abreu, Andruw Jones and Jason Bay. Which one of those three would you take?

Stephen Nover: It wouldn`t be Jones. I`m not swayed by his career-high 51 homers last year. That was a bit of a fluke. I see that figure going down this season. Jones is only a two-category player since he doesn`t give you steals (just 23 total the past four years) and hurts you in batting average. He`s never hit above .277 the last five years.

So it would be between Abreu and Bay. I`d go with Bay, who is an up-and-coming star. He`s coming into his prime at 27 years old and his numbers have gone up the last two years. I see him improving on last year`s .306, 32 homers, 101 RBIs and 21 steals. Abreu, on the other hand, turns 32 on opening day and is beginning to fade. He turned into a singles hitter in the second half of last season. He`s with a great hitting team in a decent offensive ballpark, but in three of the last four years his homer totals have been 20, 20 and 24. There`s a chance he might hit second in the lineup, too, which would reduce his RBI production.

[jonnyblaze]

Interesting. Thanks