Ask The Oddsmakers

[Will]

Question: I heard somewhere that NBA lines are never set with the public in mind because the books have to be wary of sharp bettors picking them apart. Is this true?

Answer: Well yes and no. Mostly yes if you figure that in the NBA the public plays mostly parlays while the professional handicappers and the sharps make up 90 percent of the straight action, which is responsible for moving a number. By the way, because of the lower limits on the totals as opposed to the sides, the wise guys make up about 60 percent of the handle.

There are a handful of teams though (San Antonio, Detroit and the Lakers) that the oddsmakers normally consider using a slightly higher number because those are the public teams that are almost always the most heavily bet-on parlays.

This question also received some interesting comments from our Covers Experts Dave Malinsky and Steve Merril.

“If we study the evolution of the line over the past 20 years, there really is less adjusting towards “public” opinion, but a big part of that is because the public continues to get smarter and smarter,” Malinsky says. “But the opening lines really must be set with the sharper bettors involved because unlike if the public bets a game out of balance, the sharps can buy it back, the opposite is not the case.

“And most days the opening line for events hits the board as much as 30 hours before the event, the means the sharps control the market for a long period before the public gets involved.”

Question: Are bettors piling on to George Mason this tournament like the media has?

Answer: Not really. The Patriots certainly have not become a public team. While there was some support for George Mason against Connecticut where the line opened UConn –8 ½ and closed -8, really the only game where considerable money showed for the Patriots was against Wichita State where the line opened Pick and closed Mason –2 ½. In fact, if you look at their upcoming matchup against Florida, the Gators opened -4 ½ and are now -6.

Looking at the futures, at the beginning of the college basketball season George Mason was part of the “field.” After the Tournament teams were announced ,the Patriots opened 250-1 and there were no takers. When we were down to the “Sweet Sixteen” George Mason opened at 25-1 and closed 15-1. The Final Four had Mason opening 10-1 and as I’m writing this, they’re currently 5-1.

Question: Do you have an idea what the lines will likely be for the NCAA championship game for each possible matchup? If so, can you fill us in?

Answer: Well, I’ll give it a go. Since I believe that money will show for both dogs Saturday, I’ll adjust off that. I’d have Florida –1 ½ versus LSU and UCLA; LSU and UCLA -4 versus George Mason. Of course, adjustments may have to be made after we see how Saturday’s games play out.

Just to see what the Professional Handicappers are thinking, I asked Steve Merril the same question;

Steve Merril sees it much the same way, but he says a win by George Mason could make things tough for everyone.

“George Mason is the most difficult to predict as another upset win would once again raise their power rating more than the other established teams from major conferences,” he says. “LSU would be about 4 to 5-point favorite over GMU and UCLA, about 3 to 4-point favorite over Mason.”

Question: Do you expect teams that had a large contingent at the World Baseball Classic to experience a hangover of sorts like the Detroit Red Wings did in hockey after the Olympic Break?

Answer: No. Hockey was different as they were in the middle of a season and it disrupted chemistry and momentum. That will not be the case with MLB as the players are still in spring training and the lineups are constantly changing anyway.

Question: The steroid era is officially beginning to wind down. Will we see a change in baseball totals as a result?

Answer: Dave Malinsky can best answer this question.

“The oddsmakers have done such a great job of matching the way that the game is being played at any particular moment that the average over/under line and the average score have been magnetized over the years,” he says.

“So if the scoring does indeed reduce, we will see the totals being reduced at almost exactly the same rate. These guys do not miss much and when they do, the market tends to get the lines to the right levels pretty quickly.”

Question: Does golf betting pick up for The Masters? How much of the handle is taken on Tiger?

Answer: The Masters handle is significantly higher then any other golf tournament every year and it doesn’t hurt that the Masters odds have been posted on the board since January.

Depending on how Tiger is playing, anywhere from 10-15 percent of the total handle is on him alone. This year he’s won three of the first six tournaments, so look for the higher percentage.

Question: There`s talk Tiger Woods might not play in the Masters because of the illness to his father. How would that affect the odds for the outright winner? And what kind of impact would you anticipate Tiger`s absence to have on the handle for the Masters?

Answer: Looking back to the previous question, I’d anticipate the total handle to be down 10-15 percent if Tiger should miss the Masters. Of course, if he does, then there are some pretty good values out there right now. Els and Mickelson at 10-1, Singh and Goosen at 14-1 and Garcia, DiMarco and Toms at 25 or 30-1 are surely overlays if Woods misses the tournament, don’t you agree?

With MLB starting Sunday, fantasy game guru Stephen Nover has a tip for your draft.

Question: I have my baseball draft this weekend. Are there any players I should definitely avoid?

Stephen Nover: Yes. Don`t even put these guys on your cheat sheet, or dare throw their names out even for $1 in auction formats.

Mike Lowell (Boston): It was evident last year that Lowell`s bat speed was gone. The guy hasn`t done anything this spring either. This was one guy the Marlins did well to get rid of.

Bronson Arroyo (Cincinnati): Arroyo is making the switch to the National League where he`s going to pitch in a hitter`s park. He`s looked terrible in spring training and his development is going to be hindered with first-string Reds catcher Jason LaRue hurt. The Reds need innings from their starters. So unless innings pitched is your only category, keep away from Arroyo because he`ll be an ERA and ratio killer.

Dontrelle Willis (Florida): Willis is due for some bad luck this year after getting excellent run support last season. The Marlins figure to be the worst team in the National League and Willis, as their No. 1 starter, goes up against all the opposing aces.

Troy Glaus (Toronto): There`s a deep third base crop this season, so there`s no reason to gamble on Glaus. Don`t be seduced by his home run power. He`s extremely injury prone and his batting average can sink you.

[Romanowski]

judge posted this i believe already

[Will]

Really..it said it was published the 30th of March