Author of "Smart Money", Michael Konik Chat On Gambling Industry

[goterps74]

Really great chat

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...031200385.html

[hammink]

Thanks, good read

[The Judge]

Falls Church, Va.: I have made literally hundreds of bets at sports books in Las Vegas, almost exclusively on college basketball, and over the years I have been stunned by how close to the actual spread the games end up. My question is this -- are there any statistics or studies that show success rates by book makers in how close their spreads are to the final scores? Also, isn't it true that the sports books ideally want an equal amount of money on both sides of the spread and they will automatically clear their 10 percent commission anyway?

Michael Konik: The line isn't meant to predict the final score; it's meant to attract the equal action you reference. That the games often do fall near the number is a testament to several things, including the strength of the line. (But often the result is wildly "off" from the opening number.)
The most successful bookies aren't score predictors, they're market predictors.
_______________________
Washington, D.C.: Hi Michael, love the book. Can you speak to the notion that Bookmakers set lines to encourage equal action on both sides of the line, implying that the books are happy to simply take the vig? In theory, this makes perfect sense and is sound, but I am not convinced Bookmakers don't set lines to "trap" bettors and encourage heavy action on one side. Then, when the game goes the book's way, there is a windfall for the book. Am I off base here?

Michael Konik: Thank you. Glad you liked it. Your notion is plausible, but not true. Some big bookies have "an opinion," and you'll see it in the line. But they'd rather be brokers than bettors, otherwise they'd be on the other side of the counter.

My take exactly.

By the way, Konik's book, Smart Money, is a very good read.

[smitch124]

Originally Posted by The Judge

My take exactly.

By the way, Konik's book, Smart Money, is a very good read.

Just finished this book. Really enjoyed it, fun to see what wusses the books really are. Smart Money makes them run like bi**hes!!

[Chicago RED]

Great post terps, I really enjoyed his book alot.

I think with all the smart money friends he knows, he prob. still wagers. I am sure it is on a much smaller scale then when he was trying to get money out for the brain trust.

I am suprised nobody asked about that baseball program his buddy made at the end of the book, I wanted to know how that was doing.

[smitch124]

Interesting too that teasers became the smart play with the results tightening up...