baseball systems to fade/follow

[johnny1212]

Go for the home team in the first game of a series if they are coming off a series win or tie versus a team off a straight up loss as well as a series loss. This should be later than game #20 and the home team must either be an underdog or not a favorite more than -130. Our team must be coming into this series putting up good offensive numbers so they must have scored 5 or more runs in their previous game.

Past Years Results:

Year	      Record  Units
2004:       15-12   +3.80
2003:	      21-12   +10.95
2002:	      21-10   +14.05
2001:	      14-11   +2.85
2000:	      12-7    +4.85
1999:	      22-10   +14.80

Analysis:

The home field advantage in baseball is not as easy to define as it is in other sports. Home field advantage is actually strongest during the first game of a series. If our home team is putting up good offensive numbers they will be coming into the series with a great deal of confidence and will look to extend their streak. Since their opponent is coming off a series loss and has to travel to an opponent's city, they are at a small disadvantage physically and mentally.

[johnny1212]

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game with a spread less than 200 that has a home win percentage greater than 55% going against an opponent that has a losing road record. The opponent must have won less than 6 games L10.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record    Units
1999: 	5-5 	+1.20
2000: 	9-4 	+6.90
2001: 	13-9 	+6.30
2002: 	11-6 	+6.30
2003: 	7-4 	+4.15
Total: 	45-28 	+24.85

Average Margin of Victory: 0.32 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.

[johnny1212]

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game coming off a loss that has won fewer than 6 games L10 but going against an opponent with a below 40% road record.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record    Units
1999: 	7-2 	+6.55
2000:  	6-4 	+2.95
2001: 	6-6 	+0.90
2002: 	8-8 	+1.95
2003: 	8-12 	-1.55
Total: 	35-32 	+10.80

Average Margin of Victory: 0.27 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.

[johnny1212]

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game that has more than 2 home wins than home losses and having won 6+ games L10 and at least won 4 home games L10 home games.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record          Units
1999: 	12-11 		+3.10
2000: 	19-12 		+11.15
2001: 	29-19 		+15.30
2002: 	26-18 		+13.00
2003: 	20-12 		+11.85
Total: 	106-72 	+54.40

Average Margin of Victory: 0.42 Runs



Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.

[johnny1212]

Go for a home dog in a division rivalry game with a spread less than 200, that has won 6+ games L10 with a home winning percentage greater than 55% and going against an opponent with a less than 50% road record.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999: 	5-2 	+4.10
2000: 	4-3 	+1.40
2001: 	13-8 	+7.70
2002: 	9-4 	+5.85
2003: 	9-3 	+7.80
Total: 	40-20 	+26.85

Average Margin of Victory: 0.73 Runs
Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on.

[johnny1212]

Go for a home underdog in a division rivalry game that has won 6+ games L10 that has 2 more home wins than home losses.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999: 	13-11 	+4.40
2000:  	19-12 	+11.15
2001: 	30-19 	+16.55
2002:  	26-18 	+13.00
2003: 	20-12 	+11.85
Total: 	108-72 	+56.95

Average Margin of Victory: 0.43 Runs

Analysis:

Blindly betting on home underdogs in a division rivalry game will have won you money almost every year. This is one angle that narrows down the field to a smaller number of games to bet on. Our home underdog is an above average home team which basically narrows down poor home teams. We also constrain our system to teams that are on a roll with 6+ wins. Momentum is important and we have a very undervalued team here.

[johnny1212]

Go for any road underdog off a loss in an Interleague Game that has scored an average of 4.5 or more runs per game L5 and has won 5 or more games L10.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record    Units
1999:   5-2 	  +3.95
2000:   8-5 	  +6.31
2001:   4-3 	  +2.40
2002:   3-3 	  +1.70
2003:   5-5 	  +2.65
Total:  25-18 	  +17.01

Average Margin of Victory: 1.07 Runs
Analysis:

This is a total momentum play. A team was play strong but are coming off a loss. History contends that they keep up their momentum more often than not just based on their great offensive stats.

[johnny1212]

Go for a road underdog with a better than 47% road winning percentage that has won 12+ games L20 going against a team with a below 53% home winning percentage. Our teams are division rivals and it is not the first game of the series.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999: 	1-2 	-1.00
2000: 	10-6 	+7.35
2001: 	7-1 	+7.00
2002: 	8-4 	+6.05
2003: 	5-3 	+3.60
Total: 	31-16 	+23.00

Average Margin of Victory: 1.62 Runs
Analysis:

Baseball is all about momentum.

[johnny1212]

Go for a road underdog with a better than 47% road winning percentage that has won 12+ games L20 going against a team with a below 53% home winning percentage and that won fewer than 4 home games L10.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999: 	5-6 	+0.55
2000: 	3-4 	-0.80
2001: 	15-3 	+14.85
2002: 	8-6 	+5.10
2003: 	4-2 	+3.50
Total: 	35-21 	+23.20

Average Margin of Victory: 0.91 Runs

[johnny1212]

Go for above 500 road underdog with a spread of 135 or greater that has won 6+ games L10, going against an opponent with a home winning percentage less than 60% and that has won fewer than 5 games L10. This must not be an interleague game.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999:  	7-8 	+4.40
2000: 	9-8 	+5.35
2001: 	11-6 	+10.98
2002: 	10-7 	+8.50
2003: 	9-8 	+5.80
Total: 	46-37 	+35.03

Average Margin of Victory: 0.46 Runs
Analysis:

If you have a spread of +135 or more, that means that to break-even you would only have to win 42% or less of the time. This comes out to be 69 games on the season. There are reasons why our team is above 500. For a team to be +135, that must mean Joe Public loves the opposing pitcher but what they do not realize is that this day and age, starting pitchers only pitch about 6 innings. This leaves 33% of any game to the bullpen.

[johnny1212]

Go for a small home favorite that has won 6+ home games in last 10 attempts and has 3 or more home wins than losses and going against an above 500 team that has won less than 6 road games in last 10 attempts. The opponent must have less than 6 wins L10, have a below 500 road record. This must not be the first game of the series.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record    Units
1999: 	5-1 	+3.75	
2000: 	12-6 	+5.00
2001: 	5-3 	+1.45
2002: 	4-3 	+0.55
2003: 	12-6 	+5.20
Total: 	38-19 	+15.95

Average Margin of Victory: 1.07 Runs
Analysis:

Another type of a contrarion play here. The team we are going against is an above 500 team but not only are they below 500 on the road, but are 500 or worse L10 games, and 500 or worse L10 road games. Our team is not only decent at home but are also playing well.

[johnny1212]

Go for a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games L10 coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs. They must have won 3+ games L7 Home Games while the opponent has only won 5 or fewer games L10.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record    Units
1999: 	7-5 	+1.25
2000: 	14-7 	+5.90
2001: 	15-8 	+5.05
2002: 	8-4 	+3.25
2003: 	10-1 	+8.70
Total: 	54-25 	+24.15

Average Margin of Victory: 0.73 Runs
Analysis:

If your spread is less than -110 then you should be the winner. The team in this situation will look to their home field advantage to pick them up after their loss. It is easy to assume they will bounce back considering that they have been playing well coming into the game.

[johnny1212]

Go for a team that:
# Is a road favorite of -130 or less.
# Has a winning record.
# Has a winning road record or has won 3 or more road games in their past 5 tries.
# Coming off a loss versus the team it is currently facing.
# Has won 5 or more games in their past 10.
# and is playing an opponent that: Has a home winning percentage less than 60%.
# Is a non-divisional opponent.
# has won 5 or fewer games in their past 10.

Past 7 Years Results:

Year	      Record  Percentage      Units
1999:         16-6    0.727273        +8.85
2000:         10-5    0.666667        +4.10
2001:         11-3    0.785714        +7.45
2002:         5-3     0.625000        +1.60
2003:         5-2     0.714286        +2.55
2004:         9-5     0.642857        +3.20
2005:	      6-2     0.750000	      +3.58
Total:        62-26   0.704505        +31.33

Average Margin of Victory: 1.97 Runs

[johnny1212]

Go for a road favorite that has won 6+ road games L10 going against an opponent that has won 3 or less home games L5 and won 7 or less home games L15. This ought to be the first game of the series in which the opponent was coming off a road game.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999: 	5-1 	+3.75
2000: 	8-3 	+4.65
2001: 	7-4 	+2.45
2002: 	6-2 	+3.65
2003: 	3-1 	+1.90
Total: 	29-11 	+16.40

Average Margin of Victory: 2.08 Runs
Analysis:

Here we see ourselves going against the home team in the first game of a series but only because our road team is playing well on the road and is coming off a road game. If they are coming off a home game, there is always the comfort factor of leaving home and having to travel. Well, our team has already been on the road so there will be no need to adjust. They will just continue to play well.

[johnny1212]

Go for the road favorite with a spread no less than -130 in an interleague game in which it is not the first game of the series coming off a loss and averaging greater than 4.5 runs per game L5 versus an opponent that has not scored more than 7 runs in its previous game.

Past Years Results:

Year	Record  Units
1999: 	6-0 	+6.00
2000: 	2-1 	+0.95
2001: 	4-1 	+2.95
2002: 	3-0 	+3.00
2003: 	4-2 	+1.60
Total: 	19-4 	+14.50

Average Margin of Victory: 3.09 Runs
Analysis:

Here we see ourselves purposely not going against the home team in the first game of the series. We like the road favorite because we see them scoring well, motivated off a loss.