baseball systems to fade/follow

[johnny1212]

bumping this up for ppl to look at this season

[Romanowski]

thanks johnny1212

[MREAST]

None of this info belongs to the poster, it was all hijacked from a website, but still good info.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by johnny1212

Road Favorites in Game 4 of a Series

We saw in my Home Field Advantage articles that home field advantage in baseball decreases as the series progresses to the point that by game 4, it is as if the game was played on a neutral field. Since the Vegas odds have yet to take this into account, we can capitalize on a small system playing on road favorites.

Favorites are defined as a team that has the highest likelihood of winning and the odds express its probability of winning. We have the suspicion that road favorites should be bigger favorites when playing in the fourth game of a series by nature of the fact that Game 4 turns into a neutral field.

Give our team the motivation necessary to close out the series strong and we have a pretty good yet rare system. Losing game 3 should be sufficient motivation for our favorite in game 4. Our team is about 8 points undervalued and it is +15 units over the past 7 seasons.

If our team happened to lose by exactly one run, the system improves to 39-17 over the past 7 seasons, +17 units making our team undervalued by 30 points! Out of approximately 17,000 games this system has only been in effect 56 times which is about once every 300 games. So is it no wonder why a system like this can prove to be strong and profitable year after year?

This seems kind of sketchy. I am going on data only from 2004 on so I cannot doublecheck him but blindly betting on home teams (favored or unfavored) would be 8% ROI on the moneyline and under 2% but still profitable on the RL...

away favorites with a loss in game 3 in game 4, which is what I understand was being advocated most strongly:
2010 -5.15 U
2009 +5.6 U
2008 +0.35 U
2007 -7.4 U
2006 -0.85 U
2005 -1.1 U
2004 6.05 U

Not that I think anyone was going through and following any of these super closely, but as I fiddled with some of them, this one stuck out as the worst.