Beating the Books...Too Much Info is Bad Info

[johnny1212]

It never ceases to amaze me how much information one can gather on any specific sporting event. How much of this useless information do we really need? With sports books setting record numbers every year, it no wonder that all this information is available. It's business. A big mistake made by many sports bettors is to think that this information, mostly provided by the sports books themselves, is going to assist them in picking winners. That type of thinking is ludicrous. Thing is, you need something to base your picks on. You'll see so many trends your head will spin. All through the NBA, NFL, and NHL season you'll see trends like these: Miami Heat are 27-7 against the spread as a home dog coming off of a road loss. The Detroit Wings are 12-26 against the spread on the second game of back to back games. Then of course, you'll see the Red Wings in the second game of back to back games and you'll bet against them based on the information you've just read. I'm here to tell you that all these trends and stats mean absolutely nothing. These trends are usually based over a 3 to 5 year period, sometimes longer. With thousands of games played year after year trends are going to develop over time. Its an absolute. Of course some will stick out more then others, but to base your selections on this useless information is foolish. Who really cares what happened 2 or 3 years ago? It means absolutely nothing and it can in no way effect the outcome of today's games. Don't even look at, or pay attention to them anymore. They don't help you. The only thing all this useless information will accomplish is having you more confused then Darryl Strawberry at a "just say no" rally.

How about the injury reports? Do they hold any value? Once again, the injury reports are useless. The odds makers are fully aware of who is hurt and who is playing. The line has already been adjusted to compensate for injured players. Wagering against a team that is missing some key components is foolish. The injury reports, thus, becomes useless information. The next logical approach is to get information that will actually be useful. Truth is, no information out there is going to help you select winners on a consistent basis. The most important factor in betting sports is the human factor, and that's what I want to focus on in this article.

The human factor. Which team is up and which team is down? Its all psychological. The Miami Heat most recently had a 22 point lead in the 4th quarter at home against Milwaukee. Milwaukee rallied and outscored the Heat by 22 points in the final 10 minutes and won the game on a 3 point buzzer beater by Ray Allen. Can you imagine what coach Pat Riley was like in the dressing room after the game? He was livid. Very next night the Heat were traveling to take on the hated Knicks and promptly went on to win the game outright as 4 point underdogs. Surely after blowing that large lead the Heat were going to bounce right back and be playing with the intensity of a playoff game. This is the type of information to look for. You need to look closely at box scores and schedules. How about the Bucks? They carried that momentum with them the very next night as they too were back on the hardwood against the Celtics who had previously won 4 of 5 games. Milwaukee was a 5 point favorite and built up a 20 point lead and cruised to a 13 point victory. The LA Lakers recently had back to back games against Seattle and San Antonio respectively. The Lakers had lost earlier in the year to the Spurs and had lost 3 of their past 4 games against them. On the first night against Seattle, the Lakers were down by 40 points at the half and eventually lost by 31 points. They were looking past the Supersonics to the Spurs and the very next night they were a 4.5 point favorite over the Spurs. The Lakers built a 20 point lead by half time and ended up winning by 12 points. These are the psychological edges I am referring to and that you have to focus on. These types of occurrences are frequent day in and day out in the NHL and NBA seasons. The Charlotte Hornets ended Philadelphia's winning streak to open the season at 12 games. They beat the 76ers by 18 points. 2 weeks later the 76ers had back to back games. The first game on Friday night was at home to the lowly Washington Wizards. The next night the 76ers were still at home, only this time the opposition was the Hornets. Against Washington, Philly was a 10 point favorite. Now I knew that the next night the Hornets were in town and the talented 76ers were looking ahead to that game. Washington was the bet. Sure enough, Philly barely squeaked by and won the game by 3 points. The next night, Philly was a 6 point favorite over Charlotte. This is the game they were going to be much more focused on. Philly cruised to an easy 18 point win and led the game at one point by 26. It is essential that you look ahead to what's coming up and you take note of what has recently transpired. If wagering on sports and picking winners was based on talent and the better team winning, then we'd all be rich. Useless stats and trends are certainly not going to provide you with the information you need in order to pick winners. The key is stepping in against a team at the right time, and the only way you are going to know when the right time is, is to pay attention to team schedules and the psychological state of mind of the players on a specific team.

"Sandwich games" are games where a certain team is playing two rival games with a lousy team sandwiched between them. For instance, The Indianapolis Colts recently had a 3 week span where they had games against Miami, Chicago, and the New York Jets respectively. You know that the Dolphins and Jets are division rivals and that the Colts intensity level will be high for those two games. However, a close look at their schedule sees the Bears "sandwiched" between those two division rivals and that's the game to focus on. As it turns out, the Colts were a 7 point favorite in Chicago and lost the game outright. Look over schedules carefully and wager accordingly. Remember, stepping in at the right time is the key to winning.

Prolonged road trips in basketball and hockey are grueling. It is not unusual for teams to play in 5 different cities in 9 nights. It happens all the time. Most players that wager on sports have absolutely no idea that they are about to wager on a team playing their 4th road game in 7 nights. This information is vital and you need to know it. The odds makers are fully aware of this too and they set traps for uneducated bettors. Be aware of all these factors and consider them before wagering, to do otherwise would be foolish.

Another edge in betting sports is backing teams that don't get alot of public wagering support. Odds makers post lines hoping to attract the same amount of money on both sides in order to "balance the books". However, when you wager on popular teams like the LA Lakers, Detroit Red Wings, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders, and the New York Knicks, you are going to pay a premium to do so. The lines on these teams are almost always inflated because the odds makers know they are going to get an influx of action on popular teams. On the other side of that coin is the teams that hardly get any public wagering support. Nobody is willing to risk wagering on these types of teams. Teams like the Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Wizards, Vancouver Grizzlies, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning are a few examples of teams that you are going to get value on. Nobody wagers on them, thus, it only makes sense that the numbers against these teams are extremely generous. Many years ago I remember sitting in the Stardust Hotel in Las Vegas on a normal Sunday afternoon. The place was packed with football handicappers and almost every game was on the big screens. At that time the 49ers were a great team, as were the Cowboys, Broncos and the Steelers. Every time any one of those teams scored or made a great play the whole joint erupted with applause. It occurred to me then, that all of these people, that didn't know each other, were all betting the same teams. Today it is no different. Great teams are popular, and popular teams get a ton of public wagering support. When you wager on one of these popular teams, the lines are inflated to attract wagers on the other side, and it is you, the public that is ultimately paying the price.

[Joe D]

Great post.
Been saying this exact thing for years.
In the long run following Stats & Trends will make you a loser !!!