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Old 11-27-2006, 10:33 PM
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Betting on Law of Averages

A popular betting strategy is to bet against the public. But even the public can get it right. How could you not bet on the Colts against Philly?

But has anyone ever tracked lines where the public is 50-50, give or take 3 points?

Does the line favor the FAVS OR DAWGS?

I'm going to follow these situations. I wanted to limit to -/+ 3 points but would go as high as 5. I'm tracking who covers in these situations. Obviously, hypothesis would dictate that both will only cover fifty percent of the time. But I'm taking a stats class, so I'm totally obsessed with numbers
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Old 11-30-2006, 09:26 AM
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Let us know how it goes beatphats and you were right about the Colts
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Old 12-07-2006, 06:24 PM
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Don't quote me just yet because I don't have exact numbers, but when the public is 50-50 +/- 2 pts, the home team wins ATS regardless of being FAVS or DAWGS.

Once I finish with finals I should be able to keep track for at least a month.
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