Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

[dave nz]

Some of you may have heard that expression and some of you may not.
For those that havn't this post is for you.

On every sporting event Bookmakers will set a line, are they accurate to the actual probablity everytime?
hell no. Granted certain sports are less likely for the lines to be "off" it can occur on any sport.

Perhaps the best way to explain what I am on about is to give an example.
A friend and I play golf, he is not my usual golfing buddy. We play on average once every month or so. Our first match he beat me by 4 shots. I came back and edged him 2 matches later. Overall he has me about 12 to 7.

Now lets say Bookmakers were to frame a market each time we played from now on, starting off the next round they have me at 4.00 (+300) and him at
1.23 (-440). Some of the variable info is favourable for me the course we are playing at is the one I have beat him at most out of any of the courses and the wind is going to blow hard.

Now with everything taken into consideration would you say my line of +300 is an accurate reflection of the outcome of our match?

If you answered no then you would be correct. This is an exmple of where the line of what the Bookmaker has set is "overs"---over the odds, over what the line really should be.
Simply put--the odds of +300 is not an accurate reflection of the outcome of our match. As a gambler given all the circumstances for this upcoming match u should be on that +300 everytime because in the long run it would be profitable.

Now lets change things up. Say bookmakers come out with 1.83 (-120) for him and 2.00 (+100) for me. This one has gone too far the other way, for me as a gambler (not that I bet on our golf matches!) it would either be a bet on him or a pass.

Based on everything I think a fair reflection of our next match would be him at 1.63 (-155) and me at 2.35 (+135). As a gambler I think that is an accurate reflection of our match and it would be a no bet for me.

Learn to know the probablity of what u are betting relative to the lines set and use it to work in your favour.


Goodluck

dave nz

[Wellahiya]

ain't that what sportsbetting is all about?

you make profit from the edge. the only problem is, that noone knows the real odds and that other factors influence the game when it's running.

imho sportsbetting got so much in common with poker, at poker you can't draw a flush profitable (not talking about bluffing and stuff, just straight props.) if the potodds/impliedodds are off. and i can't bet a NHL game that had 'bad' odds either. if i suppose the game is even and the lines are -111 and -110 for teh teams, i just cant bet as i got no edge at all. the other similarities would be the need for a certain strategy, patience and some kind of 'bankrollmanagement'...

i hope i could break my thoughts down into proper and understandable english... i love sports and gambling as i love and studid mathematics... so sportsbetting is a great freetime activity for me. so i soak up everything that i can learn.

[johnny1212]

this is an excellent post

[dave nz]

Thanks J

[captaincapper]

good insight

[Chicago RED]

Great post and well said.

[Numbers]

Another thing to consider is how much variability there is around a certain result. The NFL spread is a good example.

The standard deviation around the spread is a whopping 13.5 points. This translates to a number of interesting numners:

i) 1/3 of all games will be 13.5 points or more away from the spread.

ii) If you want to hit 70% of the picks, then you have to spot line errors of just above 7 points.

iii) 60% line errors just below 3.5 points.

iv) It also debunks a common myth that most games finish close to the spread. The reality is that they do not and there is a lot of luck in any game.

Internet poker is the same, you really need to play close to 100,000 hands to know if you are good due to the fact there is so much luck involved.

[dkp]

Eekchac is right. This is the essence of sports gambling. Whether you, as an individual, believe that the odds for the outcome are the correct representation of what is most likely to occur. And, if you don't like the win odds, then you can start to look at whether you think the points swing things enough in your direction that you can take lower odds but enjoy a lower risk by having points in your favor.

Look at the NFL odds this weekend at Betj. You have 2 teams that are -3 that are at -140 and you have another team that is -3 but is at -170. On the other side of the coin, the two dogs in the first game are at +120 while the dog in the 3rd game is +150.

We all know the basics are that the oddsmaker is trying to set pointspreads that will even out the action on both sides but it is up to you to decide which of these odds might not reflect your own opinion of what is going to happen in the game.

Good luck...