Capping A Game , Sara's Way

Sara · #1 01-31-2006, 11:16 AM

I am far from an expert but spend alot of time capping college sports. Often see the same questions arise from games that have funny lines:

The way I see it
(I will call the line makers Vegas)

There are three main ways to cap.
against or for teams,
against or for lines
with or against the sportbooks

You can't just cap a game and say well that team looked terrible last game and because they are giving alot of points this game they will never cover.
The first thing I do when looking at a line is ask why. Why would the books set the line where it is? Vegas is not stupid. Far from it. They set a line because:
It is fair
or to entice money for one side
The first one is self explanatory
The second one is where it gets interesting and where the sharp betters get an edge. The old saying "if it looks to good to be true, it probably is", comes into play here.
So they set the line to get money on a certain side by making it look too good to resist. Last night (jan30) in college basketball I saw alot of people on Texas Tech +13.5 over Kansas. It looked like just too many points so many jumped on TT. Again I feel Vegas set that line to attract TT money. Kansas destroyed TT winning by 34. Furman was another team that people hammered because the line was just too tempting and again Furman failed to cover. On sunday I made a small bundle with Minnesota as Indiana was the obvious choice and yet the line was almost a pickem. Today there is a good game between Illinois and Wisconsin. The line is set low but I am seeing alot of people on Wisconsin, and most people are refering to Wisc good home record as the difference in this game. Remember Vegas knows all too well about Wisconsin's home record. I am not saying Illinois will cover but watch any line movement, especially late in the day
Yes it is easy to cap after the game is over and I am not trying to downgrade anyones picks. I take the same teams myself many times but am learning. The point here of course is look at the line and if it appears out of wack there is probably a good reason.
However Vegas is not perfect and sometimes they just miss the line. In other words they give a team too many points, the public jumps on it and wins big. I don't think Vegas does this to let us win but rather the game just did not pan out as they expected. It happens and when you side with Vegas and the public wins it leaves a bad taste in your mouth. But over time you will do much better going with Vegas rather than against them.

Weird things happen
In sports the word "fix" comes up alot. Does it happen? It sure does. Much more than we think. Especially in college games. We are not the only people betting games. Players,their families, coaches, refs, and owners also bet. They can all help to determine the outcome of any game. If you watch the last few minutes of a college BB game you will see some strange stuff, very strange. I think you all understand what I mean.
That is not to say all games are fixed, far from it. When dealing with amateurs you never know what to expect and sometimes things happen because of inexperience. Nothing you can do about that

Line movement
Not all people get a chance to follow line movement and betting patterns of a game and that includes me. Most of my week day plays are made by lunch time due to my schedule. But don't underestimate the value in watching lines move...against the public. I know many people have trouble with this concept so what it means is if the public is on one side and yet the line is moving in the opposite direction it is time to look at the unpopular team. If team A has 70% of the people betting for them and yet the line started at -10 and now is -7...it is time to look at team B. There are a few free sites that track these betting patterns.

As far as injuries, streaks,stats and trends ect......Vegas knows more about this than we do and they factor this into the line so don't wear yourself out. That is not to say ignore this but take a quick look and move on. I mean some days there are maybe 100 games so you just don't have the time (most people) to look at all the stats. I do like to look at common opponents that the teams have played and how each did against the same team. This is a good tool to use when setting a line to see if the line Vegas sets is out of wack.

I could go on as this is just part of capping. However the above are the more critical tools I personally use when capping games. You certainly can't win every game and won't. There are losing days, and weeks. However if you contnue to lose you have to change the way you do things. Plain and simple. What is the point of gambling if you continue to pick at 40%? If you bet real money then you have to get better...or quit. There is lots of luck involved but it won't carry you over 50% in the long run. Take EVERY loss and learn from it. Ask yourself questions as to why you lost the game. If it was beyond your control move on but if not figure where you went wrong so next time you don't make the same mistake. I bet a hockey game Detroit over Nashville Jan 23. I had Detroit but Nashville won 3-2. Detroit outshot nashville 41-15. Nashville goalie was first star. I capped the game right but due to a hot goalie I got beat. Nothing I could do about that(funny thing is the next night they played again and Nashville won 2-1 and goalie was first start again)

I cap my own games but that does not mean I don't follow what others pick or say. If I have a lean on a team but see a few good cappers on that team it will probably push me enough to make the bet. There are guys who follow certain teams or conferences and they provide alot of info...use it.

I hope this helps some and clears a few things up. I am far from a pro on this stuff but as time goes on get a better grip on things related to betting.

It involves more than just picking the best team.

The Judge · #2 01-31-2006, 11:17 AM

Thanks, Sara.

Will · #3 01-31-2006, 11:22 AM

good read sara

domafia · #4 01-31-2006, 11:24 AM

Not sure how you summed up capping strategies so simply and eloquently, but nice job Sara. Hope this thread gets bumped up many times to come as it is a great resource for everyone on this forum to read, whether you agree with the philosophies or not!

Trossi3389 · #5 01-31-2006, 11:24 AM

Good stuff Sara !!

Romanowski · #6 01-31-2006, 11:36 AM

Sara

Great read

In sports the word "fix" comes up alot. Does it happen? It sure does. Much more than we think. Especially in college games. We are not the only people betting games. Players,their families, coaches, refs, and owners also bet

While I do believe in fixes, I think it must happen infrequently, these players, boosters, coaches, players must be paid to have a "fix", and im sure at not a cheap price, so how often can it be done, how could the "fixers" lay so much to make it worthwhile, and yet at the same time not cause alarm with the books

"When dealing with amateurs you never know what to expect and sometimes things happen because of inexperience. Nothing you can do about that"
I see weirder things in the NBA, go figure

Just my 2 cents

Sara · #7 01-31-2006, 11:47 AM

Hi Roman and thanks for the reply. When talking about fixes you said they would have to be paid to fix a game. Betting with a sportsbook and winning is getting paid. Remember they don't have to bet under their own name but could get someone to open an account for them. If I am a star player and just bet 1000 on say the under it does not take much for me to slow the game down, have an off night shooting and do what it takes without much suspicion. Can't do this every game but sometimes...yes. How about refs? We have all seen how sometimes they call all the fowls against one team and the other teams covers easy. Happens alot

As for the NBA...that is why I rarely bet it

Thanks and your points are well taken

cman · #8 01-31-2006, 12:01 PM

nice one Sara...

For someone like me who does not cap games and I look only at key numbers and money % it is always interesting to see how someone does actually look at things like that

wde

Gerk · #9 01-31-2006, 12:15 PM

Excellent points Sara,

Haven't seen them put so well in one article

Blackbeard Pimp · #10 01-31-2006, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sara

Weird things happen
In sports the word "fix" comes up alot. Does it happen? It sure does. Much more than we think. Especially in college games. We are not the only people betting games. Players,their families, coaches, refs, and owners also bet. They can all help to determine the outcome of any game. If you watch the last few minutes of a college BB game you will see some strange stuff, very strange. I think you all understand what I mean.
That is not to say all games are fixed, far from it. When dealing with amateurs you never know what to expect and sometimes things happen because of inexperience. Nothing you can do about that

I just have to say that was a beautiful post, Sara. Absolutely interesting and good information.
I ESPECIALLY agree with the fixes and how there are LOTS in college bball. Just look at ALL the games that come down to a half point or a point EVERY night. Linesmakers are good but statistics, math, and linesmaking, can only get you so far especially when there are million different combinations of point spreads/over/unders, etc.
Anyone who doesn't believe in fixes or tries to minimize them really should not be gambling
Loved the post and the capping, keep up the awesome work