Careful when you bet ONLY against the public.

[Dr. Jack]

I did a very small article for a magazine about handicapping. This is the pre-edit version (lol) but feel free to critique me, disagree, tell me where I am wrong and any other opinions you have.


Careful when you bet ONLY against the public.

By Dr. Jack
CappersMall.com

If you scroll the major forums around the internet you will notice for the last couple of years that the phrase “Fade the public” is being used more than ever. Now we all know that the old saying was Joe Public never wins. But the problem with using this betting system as your only way of betting it that phrase is simply not true. The public does win some of the time. In fact you can make a case that the public wins at the minimum of 45% of the time. That is probably the all time worse case scenario. The public may just in fact hit 50% or higher.

The public does fall in love with some games and the old saying “If it looks to good to be true” still remains strong. Sure the books still cash big when the public overwhelmingly loves a side of an NFL game. But let’s look at the Sunday NFL schedule as an example. Let’s say we look at the most popular 10 games and have the public pick the winners of each of those 10 games. Most likely the public will hit an average of 4-6 of those 10 games. Simple mathematics will tell you that fading the public as your only method of handicapping may prove to not be a wise decision. When you take in to consideration in the NFL that the public often does bet the better team you have to wonder if only fading the public can even win.

Sure we recommend using the “public” as part of your handicapping but make sure you use other tools. The best handicapper will never be stubborn or never think they are smarter than the oddsmakers. Never discard important handicapping methods. Take it all in to consideration. Here are some important factors a handicapper should take in to consideration in the NFL.

1. Quarterbacks – Sure you need more than just a quarterback but often it’s a very simple question you have to ask yourself.

2. Running Game – Often if you have no chance of running the ball you are in for a long day on the field. Also with a favorite who can run the ball will have a better chance of covering that favorite spread.

3. Offense and Defense Lines – The average Joe will not pay attention to this part of handicapping and it’s so simple. Sometimes you have a mismatch in the trenches that will say a lot.

4. Home and Away – Examine this carefully. Some teams can not play to a high level on the road and some don’t care if they are home or away. With some teams who are not that good usually have the ability to turn it on in front of the home fans.

5. Trends – There is debate on whether it’s better to fade or follow trends but sometimes it’s good to know if a team has beaten a team 12 times in a row. After a while it gets in the head of players.

6. Field Goal Kickers – If you can’t kick a 40 yard field goal it changes everything. Make sure you know who your kicker is.

7. Revenge – Some people say revenge doesn’t matter but these athletes are competitive and they do remember if they received a butt kicking the last time they played.

8. Line Movement - As much as we say don't use it as your only way of handicapping. A good handicapper will take notice. Pay attention and see if you can find a trend.

9. On Deck - More so in college football but many times you will find a team that is not 100% focused on the game at hand with an even bigger game next week.

10. Pressure - Some teams handle pressure very well and some teams are king of the chokers. You can usually get a feel for the way a team is. If it's all on the line and a team has proven they are not very good in critical situations, don't expect that to change over night.

Bottom Line: There is no right way or wrong way to handicap a game but always be ready to learn and take advice. Don't let pride get in the way. Also stay away from teams that you have a rooting interest in as a fan. It's hard to remain objective and although you think you are objective often you are not.

Handicapping is not a sprint. Do not try and get rich over night. Realize it's a marathon and set up reasonable goals. Make sure you are prepared. Factor in everything and never think you are better than the oddsmaker. If you are able to do this objectively you might just set yourself up for a winning season.

[pwherr]

Nice.

[Klazerman]

looks good Jack
Nice article
Klaze

[dave nz]

I agree, while IMO betting against the weight of money is an important aspect to the US pros......there is so many other factors you need to consider also. Fading the public, with little else factored in to your wagering decisions is not wise.

[cman]

I agree to a point....but the thing is..the books already factor in perceptions of injuries, weather, trades, and even who they think will cover......

but I agree there are so many sports to bet on now it is not possible for them to be right on with all their #'s

wde

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by cman

I
but I agree there are so many sports to bet on now it is not possible for them to be right on with all their #'s

wde

Sports where books have a low turnover are often better from our side of the fence. They have less action on it so consequently devote less time and effort into setting the lines. Golf and NBL (Australian basketball) are two examples for me personally. I sometimes disagree with their lines and usually come out on the right side of the ledger when this is the case.

[Romanowski]

nice article jack

[skippy]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

I did a very small article for a magazine about handicapping. This is the pre-edit version (lol) but feel free to critique me, disagree, tell me where I am wrong and any other opinions you have.


Careful when you bet ONLY against the public.

By Dr. Jack
CappersMall.com

If you scroll the major forums around the internet you will notice for the last couple of years that the phrase “Fade the public” is being used more than ever. Now we all know that the old saying was Joe Public never wins. But the problem with using this betting system as your only way of betting it that phrase is simply not true. The public does win some of the time. In fact you can make a case that the public wins at the minimum of 45% of the time. That is probably the all time worse case scenario. The public may just in fact hit 50% or higher.

The public does fall in love with some games and the old saying “If it looks to good to be true” still remains strong. Sure the books still cash big when the public overwhelmingly loves a side of an NFL game. But let’s look at the Sunday NFL schedule as an example. Let’s say we look at the most popular 10 games and have the public pick the winners of each of those 10 games. Most likely the public will hit an average of 4-6 of those 10 games. Simple mathematics will tell you that fading the public as your only method of handicapping may prove to not be a wise decision. When you take in to consideration in the NFL that the public often does bet the better team you have to wonder if only fading the public can even win.

Sure we recommend using the “public” as part of your handicapping but make sure you use other tools. The best handicapper will never be stubborn or never think they are smarter than the oddsmakers. Never discard important handicapping methods. Take it all in to consideration. Here are some important factors a handicapper should take in to consideration in the NFL.

1. Quarterbacks – Sure you need more than just a quarterback but often it’s a very simple question you have to ask yourself.

2. Running Game – Often if you have no chance of running the ball you are in for a long day on the field. Also with a favorite who can run the ball will have a better chance of covering that favorite spread.

3. Offense and Defense Lines – The average Joe will not pay attention to this part of handicapping and it’s so simple. Sometimes you have a mismatch in the trenches that will say a lot.

4. Home and Away – Examine this carefully. Some teams can not play to a high level on the road and some don’t care if they are home or away. With some teams who are not that good usually have the ability to turn it on in front of the home fans.

5. Trends – There is debate on whether it’s better to fade or follow trends but sometimes it’s good to know if a team has beaten a team 12 times in a row. After a while it gets in the head of players.

6. Field Goal Kickers – If you can’t kick a 40 yard field goal it changes everything. Make sure you know who your kicker is.

7. Revenge – Some people say revenge doesn’t matter but these athletes are competitive and they do remember if they received a butt kicking the last time they played.

8. Line Movement - As much as we say don't use it as your only way of handicapping. A good handicapper will take notice. Pay attention and see if you can find a trend.

9. On Deck - More so in college football but many times you will find a team that is not 100% focused on the game at hand with an even bigger game next week.

10. Pressure - Some teams handle pressure very well and some teams are king of the chokers. You can usually get a feel for the way a team is. If it's all on the line and a team has proven they are not very good in critical situations, don't expect that to change over night.

Bottom Line: There is no right way or wrong way to handicap a game but always be ready to learn and take advice. Don't let pride get in the way. Also stay away from teams that you have a rooting interest in as a fan. It's hard to remain objective and although you think you are objective often you are not.

Handicapping is not a sprint. Do not try and get rich over night. Realize it's a marathon and set up reasonable goals. Make sure you are prepared. Factor in everything and never think you are better than the oddsmaker. If you are able to do this objectively you might just set yourself up for a winning season.

Just wanted to help out with the proofreading.

"In to" should be "INTO"

[amhlilhaus]

one thing is, what constitutes betting against the public? what percentage of released information by books (which may not be entirely accurate) indicates a 'public' side? I have a friend who uses the 'public' method exclusively, and he uses 70% on a side, along with watching the percentage of that side and the spread movement all week to make his decisions for football. he did very well in college the last two years, and good in the nfl two years ago and down or slightly down last year. college basketball he did well both years and won't bet nba. it's all about analyzing the data and in the end it's managment of risk. I agree with what you wrote, you have to factor in other things, the public doesn't lose everytime or the industry would go belly up.

[wardawg]

Originally Posted by dave nz

Sports where books have a low turnover are often better from our side of the fence. They have less action on it so consequently devote less time and effort into setting the lines. Golf and NBL (Australian basketball) are two examples for me personally. I sometimes disagree with their lines and usually come out on the right side of the ledger when this is the case.

Small and mid conferences in college football fall under this category. Very good sides with little attention from the oddsmakers. Small conference basketball also fits here. I do very well betting these games as the line setters pay attention to the large - big market conferences.

[Rookie Pix]

Joe Public had a great year in the NFL last season and an okay year the year before last.I hope that we see more dog covers in the upcoming season because of the parity in the NFL. With so many great athletes in the pros the phrase "any given sunday" is definitely a thought to consider when trying decide on the Patriots or the Dolphins +3.5. Dr.Jack knows this game is a setup from the word go because its an AFC rivalry. Rivalries do exist in the NFL and trends will tell you over time that this particular match up could very possibly be decided by a field goal just like Green Bay vs Minnesota and others, in that case that half of a point has incredible value. I hope to see that trend reappear in the upcoming NFL season.

Fantastic article Dr.Jack ---- can we trade Culpepper yet?

[Victor]

Very nice write-up Dr. Jack!

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by Rookie Pix

Joe Public had a great year in the NFL

To this day that is one of the more amazing things I have seen in sportsbetting in my 15-16 years involved. Winning most games week after week after week, was amazing.

The actual odds on what they did (the rate they won at) last season would be massive.

[Romanowski]

Favorites hit at 58% last year in NFL

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by skippy

Just wanted to help out with the proofreading.

"In to" should be "INTO"

Thank you Skippy. I probably should have sent this right to you first. I am horrible at this especially into or in to.