Confused about how to use betting percentages.

[flipacoin]

OK, I am a bit confused here about how to use betting percentages.

Lets take a look at some real examples:

Auburn vs Georgia:

57% of bettors had Auburn ATS. The lined opened at -15 and closed at -11. So, despite heavy interest in Auburn the line dropped. So, do you bet when a team is getting heavy public interest as a Fave and still the spread drops?

At half: Georiga (a 15 pt dog, moved to an 11 point dog with only 43% of the bets on its side) has 30 points. Auburn 7.


Now, last night:

Detroit vs LA Lakers.

60 percent were on Detroit as a 4-point dog. However ,with LA only receiving 40 percent of the bets, the line still moved to -5.5 for the Lakers.

It would seem that the linespeople think LA would win handily, with so little bets on them and them also INCREASING the spread, to encourage Detroit bettors.

Detroit wins by double digits.

So, I am confused when to follow a line movement when there is heavy amount of bets on one side.

Do you follow the dog that is receiving hardly any of the percents of bets with the line moving against them? Suggesting that the lines people think it will be closer and to encourage Auburn bettors.

Or

Do you follow the favorite that is getting less than 50% of the bets but the line continues to get bigger? Suggesting that lines men think LA will win and want more Detroit betters.

Obviously, one is the better situation but that may not always be the case.

When do you follow a line movement? When a favorite receiving heavy bets, giving less points? Or a favorite getting little betts, but giving more points?

Help.

[WhiteCap]

I think in college football if the line moves for the fav with pub money on the dog its a good idea to bet the dog. In the case where the line moved against the favorite and the pub money is on the dog its a good idead to take the fav. Only on single digit spreads. In basketball I thinks its gonna be a dog year no matter which way the line moves and even with the new ball I still bet overs.

[sportsfan]

generally it is wise to play against the public when they are heavily on one side and the line stays the same or moves the other way.

However many people do this and I bet it would only hit around 55% overall. As with anything else you need to pick your spots.