Deal Or No Deal ; ODDS :

[Kramer]

at the start of "deal or no deal" the odds of picking the $1,000,000 dollar case is 1 in 26.

After eliminating all the cases exept 1, what are the odds that my case
contains the million dollars. is it 50-50 or still 1 in 26 ?

THOUGHTS ?

[Bisket]

15%?

[actionsportscentral]

It's 50-50. I don't get this? If there are 2 left and you haven't seen the million, it's 50-50.

[Bisket]

it's not 50-50 because you only had a 1 in 26 chance in the beginning. It's more likely the million would be on the board than you holding it.

[Wellahiya]

in the beginning 1 in 26 or 1:25, but the more cases are gone (withe the 1M left), the better your chances get...
and in the end it's 50:50 as you have a desicion again.

[T100]

still 1-26

[T100]

this has been rehashed under another scenario

[actionsportscentral]

Then it's still 1-26. Just because you opened the cases doesn't change the odds, does it? Strange question....

[Wellahiya]

Originally Posted by actionsportscentral

Then it's still 1-26. Just because you opened the cases doesn't change the odds, does it? Strange question....

well. another example, throwing a dice 3 times, how big is the chance to throw the 6 those 3 times?

(1/6)^3

now, you threw 2 times and had the 6...

how big is your chance to hit the 6 now?

1/6

and 1/6 is not (1/6)^3

[Kramer]

Let’s take a person with existing wealth of $100,000 who is presented with two cases of $0.01 and $1,000,000.

By taking “no deal” the expected happiness is 0.5*log($100,000.01) + 0.5*log($1,100,000) = 5.520696. Let b be the bank offer where the player is indifferent to taking it.
1. log(b) = 5.520696
b = 105.520696
b = $331,662.50.


So this hypothetical player should be indifferent at a bank offer of $331,662.50.

If you’ve ever watched the show they usually offer about $ 505,000 , $520,000
depending if the player was on winning or losing streak
after a players made a deal
and they show 2 cases ...


Let's Make a Deal. With Monty Hall
The contestant would choose one of three curtains.
One would contain a very valuable prize and the other two smaller prizes. For the sake of argument let's say behind one curtain was a car and behind the other two a goat.

Then Monty would always, ALWAYS, open up one of the two unchosen curtains to reveal a goat.

After hundreds of shows this would imply that Monty Hall (the host) knew where the car was and deliberately opened a curtain that revealed a goat.


Obviously when the player chose his curtain the probability it held the car was 1/3 and the probability one of the two unchosen curtains held the car was 2/3.
Monty is then predestined to open an unchosen curtain containing a goat.
Predestined is the key word here.

Because Monty can not open the player's curtain at this stage the probability of the player's curtain reveals the car stays at 1/3.
The probability an unchosen curtain reveales the car remains at 2/3, however it is now all on one curtain.



So after a goat is revelead the probability the player's curtain has the car is 1/3 and the probability the other unopened curtain has the car is 2/3, making switching a wise choise

Meanwhile in Deal or No Deal nothing is predestined.

Remember, the player can not open his own case.
He cannot switch his decision.

He can only accept or reject the banks offer
(Take the deal)

However If there is only 1 case on the board of $ 1,000,000
And host has his unopened case - 2 cases left
And he cannot switch it ,

it must be either in the contestants case of the girl holding the other
(50/50)

[Wellahiya]

oh, okay that changes alot...

if he holds the one case, and the girl the other case... and he cant decide wich of those 2 to open, just open the case of the girl or not... not sure then, too late to think about it

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by eekchac

oh, okay that changes alot...

if he holds the one case, and the girl the other case... and he cant decide wich of those 2 to open, just open the case of the girl or not... not sure then, too late to think about it

looloolol

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by eekchac

oh, okay that changes alot...

if he holds the one case, and the girl the other case... and he cant decide wich of those 2 to open, just open the case of the girl or not... not sure then, too late to think about it

is that show shown in dland dude?

[Wellahiya]

Originally Posted by revnecro1273

is that show shown in dland dude?

dunno, i don't watch too much underclass entertainment on tv... 90% sports and news... and the rest MTV trash shows... lower i don't go