A different poker odds question

[Kramer]

Cobmin ; Defined :

excel math Poker

YOU CAN MAKE A PIZZA
WITH 10 TOPPINGS AND CHOOSE ANY
3 OF THEM ..

HOW MANY WAYS ARE THERE TO CREATE A PIZZA ?

THIS IS KNOWN AS A COMBIN EXCEL FUNCTION
10 toppings , chose 3 pizzas
(10,3)


10 X 9 X 8 = 720
3X2X1=6

720/6 = 120

= 120 ways to make a 10 topping pizza
if you can make 3 of them

[Kramer]

YOU’RE DEALT AN ACE/KING OFF SUIT :

if a player were dealt an ace and a king plus five random cards
from the remaining 50 cards, what is the probability you
would PAIR UP the king and/or ace.?

Of the other 50 cards 44 of them are not kings or aces

(6 aces,kings)
52-2-6 (You have 2)

The number of ways to draw any five cards out of 44 is
combin(44,5) = 1,086,088.
The number of ways to draw any five cards out of all 50
is combin(50,5) = 2,118,760


SO THE
PROBABILITY of not pairing up the ace and/or king
is 1,086,088/2,118,760 = 51.26%

the probability you will pair up is 1-51.26% = 48.74%.
This is pretty close to 1 in 2.
OR close to 50/50 ODDS

KEEP IN MIND THIS IS AN “AVERAGE” ODD

If you play 100 hands you should win 50
however you could lose 4 in a row and say "bad beat"

If you’re in a tourney do you risk going all in with 50% drawing hand?

In a cash game with 2 callers you’d hit in ½ times ..

[T100]

your numbers have to change if you have 2 callers.
The third line of your post states `of the other 50 cards.

With two callers this would/should change to `of the other 46 cards.
Now throw in table size; ie 6 man 8,9 or 10 man AND that number changes again.

[Champ10]

Originally Posted by Kramer

If you’re in a tourney do you risk going all in with 50% drawing hand?

You're missing two considerations here.

A. When you get it all in pf and are up against a hand you have dominated. (Any non pair ie AQ, AJ, KQs)

B. The time that you re-shove all-in pf and take down the pot right there. (Possibly even folding out 22-66 that your opponent knows they are at best 50/50)


You make the assumption you are always against a pair in these all-in situations, but that is not necessarily the case.

[Champ10]

Originally Posted by T100

your numbers have to change if you have 2 callers.
The third line of your post states `of the other 50 cards.

With two callers this would/should change to `of the other 46 cards.
Now throw in table size; ie 6 man 8,9 or 10 man AND that number changes again.

50 represents the number of cards that are still unknown. Just because you have a 3rd caller, doesn't mean this number decreases since you still don't know what the 2 specific cards are. In some cases you can make the assumption they are "high cards" because in a tourney the player might not be calling w junk, but that is next level and potentially incorrect.

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by Champ10

You're missing two considerations here.

A. When you get it all in pf and are up against a hand you have dominated. (Any non pair ie AQ, AJ, KQs)

B. The time that you re-shove all-in pf and take down the pot right there. (Possibly even folding out 22-66 that your opponent knows they are at best 50/50)


You make the assumption you are always against a pair in these all-in situations, but that is not necessarily the case.

ANSWER :
HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU'VE DOMINATED
OPPONENT COULD HAVE A,A K,K
YOU'RE BEHIND ....


IF OPP IS SHORT STACKED WITH 6,7 SUITED
AND I'M OPP
I WOULD GO ALL IN


A 6,6 HAS BETTER CHANCE OF BEATING A/K
CAUSE SOMEONE ELSE AT TABLE MIGHT HAVE A/?
K/?

Thoughts?

[Champ10]

Originally Posted by Kramer

ANSWER :
HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU'VE DOMINATED
OPPONENT COULD HAVE A,A K,K
YOU'RE BEHIND ....

Aces and Kings are very had to get and your opponent will rarely show up with them. All players have different opening ranges, but the standard RANGE (write that word down and study that concept) players will be opening pots with will include a lot more hands that just AA and KK.

Originally Posted by Kramer

A 6,6 HAS BETTER CHANCE OF BEATING A/K
CAUSE SOMEONE ELSE AT TABLE MIGHT HAVE A/?
K/?

Thoughts?

With 66 however, someone could also have 77-AA which would all have you crushed. With AK, you are only crushed by 2 hands (compared to 8 with 66) not to mention you could also be dominating AQ, AJ and all other aces or KQs) With 66, you will rarely get action in a big pot when your opponent has 22-55 so you really never have the chance to be ahead

[Kramer]

good stuff champ, enjoy discissing poker with you



heres 1 for you

i ' ve introduced comin excel odds ,

so in texas hold em poker you've prob wanted to know

what are the odds of being dealt pocket aces?

hint



there are so many ways to arrange 2 cardsout of 52
there are so many ways to arrange 2 aces out of 4

answer is less than 1 in 300
over more than 1 in 100

[Champ10]

Originally Posted by Kramer

what are the odds of being dealt pocket aces?

220-1 but you're missing the point of tournament poker, brother.

Knowing statistics like that is a big trap in the sense that, that type of info has ZERO true value at the table. It's much more important to know the range of hands your opponent is raising with (99+, AQ+, etc.)

It is NOT about sitting around and waiting for Aces. You can be a break even player in cash games using a weak-tight style, but you will never be a good tournament player because all the money is at the top, and fortune favors to bold in these structures.

It takes well timed aggression (at times borderline maniac, situation dictated) playing NOT your own hand, but more of what your opponents don't have. So, when using this strategy AK is a monster hand you can easily play with confidence in most situations.

[Kramer]

Here's one reason I introduced these kinds of odds and would like
some opinion

Lets say you're dealt Q,Q
You can be beat with kk,aa, or a flush, etc
If you have QD, QC , and flop is

5h,10H, 2H ,
You're first to act.
Tourney game .

There's a flush draw on board
Question - what is the chance someone has already made a flush ?

What is the chance someone with 1 H card will make a flush?
What if someone has A/k

2 callers

You each have $ 2000 in chips , blinds were $ 100/200
$ 600 pot

For all you know your hand could be in lead ...

You need to make a feeler bet based on what you think can beat you

Feeler bets are an impt part of game IMO

If first to act worst thing to do is check and let em see a free card


If someone has A/K , with 50% chance of drawing A/K
If I bet $ 1,200
theoretically , if you call $ 1,200 of your $ 2000 chips with A/K
50% chance of hitting you'd lose in long run..

Maybe the avg Joe doesnt know this.
no Ace/King shows up , you have $600 left ,I'd bet $ 400


thoughts?

[Champ10]

Originally Posted by Kramer

You each have $ 2000 in chips , blinds were $ 100/200
$ 600 pot

For all you know your hand could be in lead ...

You answered your own question right there. With so much money in the pot compared to the stack size, bet folding would be a huge mistake since most of the time you will be in the lead and just have to dodge a heart (plus maybe an Ace and 10 if your opponent had A10) if you get called. Bet 350/"get it in" would be the correct decision here. If you were to bet 400/fold the best had at that point, that would be a catastrophic error and a huge leak in your game SnG/MTT game.

In the rare instances that he did flat preflop with AA or KK or flopped a flush, then oh well. Those will happen so infrequently that it will not matter. Much more often you will get all the money in way ahead or just get him to fold to your cbet.

[Kramer]

SIZE OF BETS

If blinds are $25/50 , a raise to $150 is considered
a traditional raise

However many poker pros use 2.5 or 2x blind .

The reason is pros have "more experience" in
forcing opponents to make difficult decisions after the flop .

EX : bet 5 times the blind .

For ex :

A game of $50/100 blinds ,
you raise $450 (4.5 x blind)
you’re laying 3-1 odds (450-150) .

A small player raising $ 100
1-1 odds
Why give an opponent
good odds?

Thoughts?

[Champ10]

Originally Posted by Kramer

SIZE OF BETS


However many poker pros use 2.5 or 2x blind .

The reason is pros have "more experience" in
forcing opponents to make difficult decisions after the flop .

EX : bet 5 times the blind .

For ex :

A game of $50/100 blinds ,
you raise $450 (4.5 x blind)
you’re laying 3-1 odds (450-150) .

A small player raising $ 100
1-1 odds
Why give an opponent
good odds?

Thoughts?

The reason pro's only raise 2.5x is because it saves money when you get raised. Deep in a tournament, a bet of 2.5 vs 4.5 will typically get the same result, therefore, when you save $ each time you openraise/fold

The "state of the game" right now is very aggressive preflop. Using this style you will be opening a lot of pots and this will allow you to save $ when stealing, yet still induce re raises from opponents when you have big hands (ie balanced range).

Opening 4.5x only means you will lose more when re raised.