Dolly a significant threat to Texas

[TN TITAN Fan In STL]

*SORRY FOR THE LONG POST ITS DR. JEFF MASTERS BLOG

Tropical Storm Dolly has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico after a short passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is already beginning to organize. Dolly will potentially be a dangerous hurricane for Texas and northern Mexico. Satellite loops show a large and expanding circulation, with good upper-level outflow developing to the west and north. The surface circulation is not well formed yet. Dolly's intense thunderstorms lie mainly to the north of the center, and these thunderstorms brought heavy rains of 4-6" to the Cayman Islands yesterday. Dolly's heaviest rains passed through the Yucatan Channel last night and this morning. Rainfall amounts were less than four inches over Cancun, Cozumel, and Western Cuba. Winds were only 40-50mph over this region, so there should have been little damage.

The upper-level low that interfered with Dolly for so long has now moved away and weakened, and is no longer an issue. Wind shear over Dolly is essentially zero, and expected to remain below five knots over the next 2-3 days. Dolly will be over waters of 28-29°C. These SSTs are slightly below average for this time of year, but plenty warm enough to support Dolly intensifying into a hurricane before landfall. These warm waters extend to a moderate depth, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential of about 40 kJ/cm**2. This is below the value of 80 usually associated with rapid intensification, but still high enough to allow Dolly to strengthen into a major hurricane, if it has enough time to do so. Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. I give a 10% chance that Dolly will go through a burst of rapid intensification shortly before landfall and achieve major hurricane status at landfall.

The surface center of Dolly is reforming a bit further to the north of the storm, near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This will require a northward adjustment to the track forecast, increasing the danger to Texas. The models are pretty united in forecasting a track towards the Texas/Mexico border over the next two days, with a decrease in forward speed. Some significant uncertainty creeps into the forecast for Wednesday, when steering currents weaken and the models have differing solutions on the orientation and strength of the ridge of high pressure steering Dolly. The latest GFDL and HWRF models runs from 2 am EDT this morning have shifted significantly north, bringing Dolly ashore near Corpus Christi, Texas. The GFDL shows a very large borderline Category 1/2 hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending from Galveston to Brownsville at landfall. Dolly will probably grow quite large and affect a 200-mile stretch of coast with tropical storm-force winds. Like her namesake, actress Dolly Parton, Dolly the tropical cyclone appears destined to become a media star.

[Keith]

man, I know her boobs are big, but I never thought they could do THAT much damage

[The Judge]

Keeping a close eye on Dolly down here.

[RanPicks]

we could use the rain...

[Dr. Jack]

You guys in Texas holding up okay?

[The Judge]

Dolly landed in South Padre Island (southernmost tip of Texas) this morning packing 100 mph winds. This storm is going to dump a lot of rain as it is currently moving at only 7 mph.

[mark12]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

You guys in Texas holding up okay?

Yeah, as long as it stays south of Galveston it's usually not too bad here. Getting a little rain from the bands and we can use that. Sounds like Corpus might be getting hit pretty good though. Don't know if we have anyone down that way.

[Steel]

Hang on tight Texans its sounds like your going to get one hell of a blow job. Hope you all are safe. GL

[be47320]

90 degrees and sunny in austin, just got back from a run, its amazing how big texas is and the disparity in weather from one city to another

[The Judge]

Hurricane Dolly focus shifts to flooding
The Weather Channel
5:58 p.m. ET 7/23/2008

Hurricane Dolly made landfall about 20 to 25 miles north of the town of South Padre Island or 35 miles northeast of Brownsville as a category two hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph at around 1 p.m. CDT.

Since landfall, as expected, because of land friction sustained winds from Dolly have dropped back to 85 mph; remaining a category 1 hurricane. The center of circulation is now located 50 miles north of Brownsville, Texas and moving to the northwest at 8 mph with an eventual turn to the west expected.

Even before the eye's official landfall, Dolly's eyewall punished interior and coastal South Texas beginning at the mid morning hours and the lashing continues into this evening.

Nasty squalls of tropical downpours, tropical storm-force sustained winds, and hurricane-force gusts (sometimes sustained) from Hurricane Dolly are spinning across far South Texas interior. Even with the eye making landfall, conditions will continue to be dangerous and miserable through tonight and into tomorrow morning.

It should be emphasized that this will be a long duration event for South Texas due to Dolly's sluggish nature and impacts from Dolly, especially flooding rainfall, will last well into Thursday.

Locations along the immediate coast such as Port Mansfield, Laguna Vista, Arroyo City, South Padre Island, and Port Isabel have all taken a pounding today.

Other cities such as Brownsville, Harlingen, and Raymondville ahave also felt the wrath of Dolly.

All power is reported out on S. Padre Island while power lines and power poles are down in Brownsville, Harlingen, and Port Isabel.

A 72 mph wind gust was measured earlier this morning at Port Isabel and extensive dock damage is being reported.

An unofficial observer east of Matamoros, Mexico recorded winds of 65 mph with gusts to 119 mph. Brownsville recorded a gust of 67 mph around 12 noon CT.

Port Mansfield has recorded a 76 mph gust with structural damage reported within the town. Roof shingles/tiles are being torn off in several communities.

Waves heights, between 10 and 20 feet, are crashing and punishing the shoreline. Because of Dolly's stubborn movement, severe beach erosion is becoming a major concern. Because Dolly is finally onshore, wave heights will finally begin to decrease.

Even with the extensive damage being reported, the most life-threatening impact from Dolly is becoming the prolific flooding rainfall.

Rain amounts are forecast to be in the 6 to 15 inch range in locations south of Corpus Christi through Brownsville and into northern Mexico. A majority of Cameron County, including the city of Harlingen, has already received an estimated 8 to 12" of rain. A few locales will receive close to 20 inches of rain. Flooding is a certainty in the counties of Cameron, Hidalgo, and Willacy.

[Yankee23]

Good luck guys hopefully everything will be OK

[RanPicks]

Originally Posted by be47320

90 degrees and sunny in austin, just got back from a run, its amazing how big texas is and the disparity in weather from one city to another

yep, praying for that thing to head to Dallas...

[be47320]

Originally Posted by RanPicks

yep, praying for that thing to head to Dallas...

we actually got some rain today, was nice..the yard needed it

[RanPicks]

I've been in Phoenix the past week... I'm ready for some cooler temps... 108 just isn't my thing... There were plenty of hotties out there (as expected) though...

[Q-Unit]

not seein a damn thing in West Texas...just 90 degree weather LOL

hope everyone down south is safe