Don't Mess With Hot Teams!

[BTO]

Don't Mess With Hot Teams!

by Scott Spreitzer

You know the old story about not messing with the hot roller at a dice table? It applies in sports betting, too, though for different reasons. There are reasons teams go on rolls, both straight up and against the number. Sometimes basketball teams click for several weeks, even months, as the offense is on a roll, or the defensive intensity is acute. Perhaps the coach is hard driving and demands a strong defensive effort for 48 minutes, or players are taking pride in their team defense and bring a high level of play each night.

The Dallas Mavericks would be an example of the latter. Their team defense has improved immensely under coach Avery Johnson this season. Last month they won all five games of a road trip, holding every opponent under 100 points. That was significant because in the recent past Dallas was a team we think of as all offense and little defense. But that has changed this season. Even the players have been speaking about how proud they are of their improved defense. Dallas is currently on a 10-5 run under the total, with the consistent defense leading the charge.

Teams can't always keep up a hot run like that against the spread over a whole season. Injuries happen, oddsmakers adjust, or teams simply go though down cycles. But from a handicapping perspective, it's better to ride hot streaks than to try and anticipate when a streak will go the other way.

For instance, a few months ago Southern Illinois of the Missouri Valley Conference, like the Dallas Mavericks, went on a monster run defensively, holding teams far below their scoring average night after night. During one stretch they went 12 straight games under the total! It's not wise as a bettor to look at a stretch like that that and try and figure out where it's going to end. I wouldn't think that after watching Southern Illinois go six straight games under, that maybe I should start looking at spots for them to go over the total. I would be more inclined to ride the under streak than attempt to predict when it might end.

A piece of that thinking took place for me Thursday in the NBA when the Wizards were playing at the Cavaliers. Both teams are good, but one thing that struck me about the game was that the Washington Wizards are on a terrific 15-7 run. This is an example of a young team that is beginning to click, and now they were a five-point dog at Cleveland. So do you back the home team? Sure, if other things about the game dictated a play on the Cavs. But that home team was 3-3 SU/ATS the last six games and had just played a terrible game, giving up 116 points in a loss to the 76ers.

How about making a case to go against the Wizards? I couldn't. One thing that struck me about the game was that Washington, a club that had won 15 of 22 games, was a plus-five dog. Furthermore, the Wizards were a sizzling 9-1 against the spread the last 10 games! Do you go against a hot team like that? I've handicapped sports a long time, and I assure you be very careful when looking to go against a team that is playing very well, or covering a lot. This is a good indication that a team is better than oddsmakers or the general public think. Washington not only covered but won the game, 102-94, so they are still hot, both straight up and against the spread.

Another thing that's happening is that a team can be better than the personnel or the stats suggest. Look at the Indiana Pacers. The last few weeks they've had a string of no-names in the frontcourt, like rookie Danny Granger, yet they are on an 8-1 ATS run. They've also won 6 of 9 games, even winning twice as a dog against the Lakers and Pistons. There are intangibles with a team like that, such as a significant home court edge, or knowing that Rick Carlisle is a terrific coach, with a track record of getting unsung guys to excel in certain rolls, or getting a huge motivational effort out of his troops consistently.

There are so many factors to examine when trying to identify a potential spread cover. But if you ask me about backing a hot team or looking for spots to go against that smoking club, the short answer is: Either ride the hot team, or, if you can't find enough reasons to back them, lay off the game. In the long run, trying to predict when a hot team is going to fizzle is more futile than profitable.

[Ace Rothstein]

Good points, I totally agree!