An example of a market with.....

[dave nz]

A high Bookmaker % hold......

In the futures thread discussion I mentioned it. Lets break it down in more detail with an example :

The example of have chosen to break down is the AFL (Australian Rules Football) winner, where they have reached the finals stage and there are 8 teams left.

Here is the current (typical) market :


$12.00 St Kilda
$2.85 West Coast
$5.00 Adelaide
$5.50 Sydney
$30.00 Western Bulldogs
$15.00 Melbourne
$15.00 Collingwood
$3.50 Fremantle




Ok to break it down, say I was to place $100 on the favourite West Coast @ 2.85 (+185). Who for the record I don't think will win. But that is not what I am trying to illustrate here.....

Ok the return would be $285 for a profit of $185. Now with simple maths I will work out the Bookmaker % hold.....

St Kilda 285/12 = 24
Adelaide 285/5 = 57
Sydney 285/5.50 = 52
WB 285/30 = 9.5
Melb 285/15 = 19
Colling 285/15 = 19
Freo 285/3.50 = 81

So the total outlay to get the same return as West Coast on every team other than West Coast is : $261.50

But hang on a second here dave I hear u say, West Coast are +185 in the market and we outlayed $100 to win $185....

Now we are outlaying $261.50 on the field to win $185.

That is a total outlay of $361.50 to win a measily $185.

That is right this market has a high Bookmaker % hold. A subtle way sportsbooks make alot of money on a number of markets.

Next time you bet a market be aware of the bookmaker % hold.

[dave nz]

BTW if anyone is clever enough to convert my above example to a two event market (maybe one for Skippy) my maths isn't good enough to do it.

We know West Coast are +185, but what would the field work out to be exactly in this case ?

[Henry09]

$12.00 St Kilda - 8.33%
$2.85 West Coast - 35.09%
$5.00 Adelaide - 20%
$5.50 Sydney - 18.18%
$30.00 Western Bulldogs - 3.33%
$15.00 Melbourne - 6.66
$15.00 Collingwood - 6.66
$3.50 Fremantle - 28.57

Here is another way of looking at the Bookmakers percentage hold.

To the right of each team is the percentage chance of winning based on the odds.

If you add all of those percentages up you will see that it is a 127% market which is a complete ripoff. Juice City.

in a pickem market say team a: -110 team b: -110

That would be a

52.35% either side which would make it about 105% market. Far less juice.

So in essance as you said the bookie has greater percentage hold on Futures market i.e charging you much more juice.


So to answer your question.

The Field would be approx 1.09 or in US odds format -1120

100/2.85 = 35.09 = A

100/1.09 = 91.74 = B

A + B = 126.83 = X

X = The percentage we worked out earlier for the entire market.

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by Henry09

$12.00 St Kilda - 8.33%
$2.85 West Coast - 35.09%
$5.00 Adelaide - 20%
$5.50 Sydney - 18.18%
$30.00 Western Bulldogs - 3.33%
$15.00 Melbourne - 6.66
$15.00 Collingwood - 6.66
$3.50 Fremantle - 28.57

Here is another way of looking at the Bookmakers percentage hold.

To the right of each team is the percentage chance of winning based on the odds.

If you add all of those percentages up you will see that it is a 127% market which is a complete ripoff. Juice City.

in a pickem market say team a: -110 team b: -110

That would be a

52.35% either side which would make it about 105% market. Far less juice.

So in essance as you said the bookie has greater percentage hold on Futures market i.e charging you much more juice.


So to answer your question.

The Field would be approx 1.09 or in US odds format -1120

100/2.85 = 35.09 = A

100/1.09 = 91.74 = B

A + B = 126.83 = X

X = The percentage we worked out earlier for the entire market.

Thank you fantastic!

I worked it out to be 1.10 also but wasn't sure If I had done it right.

I didn't know the Bookmaker % hold was quite that bad on this market.

There u go people on this market u are betting +185 and -1100.

A big difference! to say a futures bet I took 3 weeks ago on the Field +228
vs the USA -255 (2 outcome market).

2 outcomes on futures markets people, should be the basis of your futures bets if u are that way inclined.