Five reasons why obama can lose...

[Betfair]

He's [1.52] to win a second term and many Republicans just aren't up for the fight but Obama is no certainty and Eliot Pollak has outlined five reasons to oppose the current POTUS at next year's election

Such is the fear-factor surrounding Barack Obama right now, many potential Republican Presidential candidates are thinking of sitting out 2012, and waiting for 2016. Nobody wants a heavy electoral thumping on their CV, when they run for the Presidency.

However, whilst the Republicans themselves seemingly don't fancy it, the bettors are in dispute. A victory for the Grand Old Party next Fall, is a pretty narrow [2.84]. So what exactly are the punters thinking? Here are five reasons why Obama can be beaten to a second term.

'It's the economy stupid'


Bill Clinton's famous maxim applies perhaps in even greater force today, than it did back in the 1990s. It was announced last week that US economic growth had slumped to an annualised rate of just 1.8% in the first quarter of this year. Writing in the Guardian, Larry Sabato, Head of the University of Virginia's Centre for Politics, commented, "That's miserable...I don't care how good a president he looks a year-and-a-half out, if you have a growth rate that is well below 3%, that president is probably going to lose as long as the opposition party nominates a respectable candidate."
Only four Presidents in the 20th Century lost a re-election campaign, and three of those (Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George Bush Sr), all suffered from lean economic times. The precedent for the incumbent President (ahem) is clear.



Jon M.Huntsman


Amidst the various losers, boozers and Jacuzzi users the Republican party seem keen to inflict on the electorate, one man stands above the rabble. A fiscal conservative and social moderate, Jon Huntsman has been serving as US Ambassador to China for the past couple of years. However, having been originally nominated for that role by Obama, his association with the current President could be anathema to a fiercely anti-Obama Republican base. If he does sneak the nomination, expect election debates to be of a far chummier nature, than if Palin for example won. This could disarm Obama of his greatest weapon - articulacy - and surely makes Huntsman the Republican's best bet. Jon Huntsman is [7.8] to be the Republican nominee and [19.0] to be the next POTUS.


Continued: Betfair

[bigbuck]

I wouldn't bet Obama is going to lose. The Republicans don't have a candidate that has the charisma and likability to compete. People look for inspiration in their leaders and no one likely to be nominated fits the bill. Huntsman is the only one who can beat Obama but he's too liberal from the GOP to nominate.
Growth is weak by past standards but it will at least be growth and the jobless rate will be heading down. High gas prices have contributed to the drop in GDP and should improve. The key is not what the numbers are but the direction things are heading.

The article mentioned Wisconsin and Minnesota but that has nothing to do with president but how congressional districts are drawn.

If Romney or Pawlenty gets the nomination, it will be tight. 4 points but the person who gets the nomination is the one who Sarah Palin, who isn't running, ends up endorsing. I think it will be Tex. Gov. Rick Perry if he runs, but Pawlenty if Perry doesn't. If Perry runs, Obama would beat him by a much bigger margin than Pawlenty and Romney. My guess is 8 points.
Again, Huntsman could win but hard for him to get nomination with his past.

[mark12]

They only listed 5? Could have been 105. Starting with being totally incompetent and unable to keep from destroying the country.

[Wabash Wonders]

Originally Posted by mark12

They only listed 5? Could have been 105. Starting with being totally incompetent and unable to keep from destroying the country.

Yea, the country was in fabulous shape when he took over 2 1/2 years ago....

[mark12]

Originally Posted by Wabash Wonders

Yea, the country was in fabulous shape when he took over 2 1/2 years ago....

Yeah hard to believe that anyone could screw up worse than old George W. did but I'll be damned if Obama didn't find a way to make things worse. Guess when you start out lying about bringing the troops home being your #1 priority and won't even follow through on that screwing up healthcare, the deficit, and the economy comes pretty easy.