Flat bet or Rate plays?

[FOTH]

People are aruging with me in another forum saying that flat betting is better, how is it better when in flat betting you have to hit over 60% to profit wheras rating your plays you usually hit 50% and still profit!

[ronaldn]

Originally Posted by FOTH

People are aruging with me in another forum saying that flat betting is better, how is it better when in flat betting you have to hit over 60% to profit wheras rating your plays you usually hit 50% and still profit!

In flat betting at:
-110 the required win percentage to break even is 52.38
-107.... 51.67
-105 ....51.22
-120.... 54.34

[ryhenry09]

Originally Posted by FOTH

People are aruging with me in another forum saying that flat betting is better, how is it better when in flat betting you have to hit over 60% to profit wheras rating your plays you usually hit 50% and still profit!

Flat betting you need to hit 52.7% or so.. With rating your plays, you might win more at a lower win %, depends on if you hit your big plays. If you lose all your big plays you will not be up.

[FOTH]

what do you guys do?

[ryhenry09]

80% of my plays are for 1 unit. Some people , actually alot of people in here rate there plays. The problem is alot of people have 5, 8, 10 unit plays regularly. That means there unit is too small. I think rating your plays is the way to go as long as at least 80% of your plays are for 1 unit or 2units.

[Will]

Originally Posted by FOTH

People are aruging with me in another forum saying that flat betting is better, how is it better when in flat betting you have to hit over 60% to profit wheras rating your plays you usually hit 50% and still profit!

lets go to thaat forum and

[skippy]

Originally Posted by FOTH

People are aruging with me in another forum saying that flat betting is better, how is it better when in flat betting you have to hit over 60% to profit wheras rating your plays you usually hit 50% and still profit!

Why would you even hang out at that OTHER forum???

If they are that stupid, why bother enlightening them???
Let them keep smashing their heads against the wall.

[KALIND]

Originally Posted by FOTH

what do you guys do?

rate em

just an example was this past saturday for me where i only played 3 gms and hit all 3 but by hitting the big play of 10* which i have played only once(7* maybe 3 or 4 times) it allowed me to play another 3* and 2* late snack of a play for a damngood day at the pickings. the only reason i played it big was because that line did what i predicted it would do and i promised myself i wouldnt pla ythe board and stick to the one play IF the line did as predicted and it took up to really close to game time to get the line move i was waiting for.

rate em bro and count the dough if you find the one you like, but one word of caution, dont ever watch the game you place the big loot on because i damn near had a stroke trying to keep the number under the total.

[eek4ever]

I rate moderately. I wont go betting even a very confident pick more than 3 units because then I'm sayin that I'm more than 3 times as confident in hitting that pick. A line or total bet almost never should induce that much confidence unless the bookie was drunk and made a big capping mistake. If you make something like a 10x play and you lose, not only are you gonna be thinking oh crap I need to hit 10 1x bets just to break even, but you will be chasing your losses like no other and making even dumber big plays. I agree with Henry, you should be betting above a unit very rarely.

I think another problem with rate betting (especially for forum cappers) is they feel like they have put multiple units on a game to show their confidence to fellow cappers. If someone says "GOY guys, I'm putting 3x on it," people think ok thats not bad. But some people have the need to impress others and go out and say "oooo 10x!!" so they draw attention. People have to think in terms of percentages of confidence and the proportionality of the bets. I think it works very similarily to pot odds in poker except you don't judge the bet by the odds given by the book, but by the estimated odds you come up with based on your capping of the game.

Oh yea one more thing. Even if the people who declare big bets like 10x dont actually bet 10x on a result, but just say it to reflect their excitment about the game, it is bad for the forum because it is deceives the actual value you put on the game.

[KALIND]

Originally Posted by eek4ever

I rate moderately. I wont go betting even a very confident pick more than 3 units because then I'm sayin that I'm more than 3 times as confident in hitting that pick. A line or total bet almost never should induce that much confidence unless the bookie was drunk and made a big capping mistake. If you make something like a 10x play and you lose, not only are you gonna be thinking oh crap I need to hit 10 1x bets just to break even, but you will be chasing your losses like no other and making even dumber big plays. I agree with Henry, you should be betting above a unit very rarely.

I think another problem with rate betting (especially for forum cappers) is they feel like they have put multiple units on a game to show their confidence to fellow cappers. If someone says "GOY guys, I'm putting 3x on it," people think ok thats not bad. But some people have the need to impress others and go out and say "oooo 10x!!" so they draw attention. People have to think in terms of percentages of confidence and the proportionality of the bets. I think it works very similarily to pot odds in poker except you don't judge the bet by the odds given by the book, but by the estimated odds you come up with based on your capping of the game.

Oh yea one more thing. Even if the people who declare big bets like 10x dont actually bet 10x on a result, but just say it to reflect their excitment about the game, it is bad for the forum because it is deceives the actual value you put on the game.

i agree with much of what you have to say eek, but i disagree with the playing above a unit here or there because if the way you handicap and perceive an outcome has come as clear as you would like it to come then yes hit it but i agree that your means should be able to carry a hit if you go outside the norm of how much you play on a game. for me i havent ever played a 10* game and i probably wont do it again anytime soon because i didnt like the feeling of what ifs and what nots, for me it was really stressing because i havent played anything like that b4. i got a similar response from mr gouda about arketing a play and so forth, i see it as talkin sh1t to the books and lettin a mf know you are here for buisness and its not recreational. this sh1t helps me out when its good and when its not i now know how to curb my appetite for the action. i have taken a week off already this yr in cfb because i couldnt get ahead of the game but i had to right the ship. i hate reading between lines if someone is referring to me but believe its not hype bro, i am for real bout this sh1t

[jaypasco]

play 1 or 2 games and pound them ....this is my philosaphy

[FOTH]

so noone flat bets here?