Football betting tip

[JoeyOh]

"There are two ways a line can change during the week: the smart money move and a public money move. The smart move happens really fast. Just after the lines come out Sunday night, the smart gamblers in Vegas will jump in and make their bets if they see an easy win. When that happens, the line will change quickly and dramatically. That's what happened with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in the first round of the playoffs. The Bengals opened as a favorite, but so much money was placed on the Steelers that first night, the line shifted to make the Steelers the favorite. Right then, you should have known that the Steelers were going to win the game. That's a smart money move. A public money move happens slowly over the course of the week. If the line on a favorite keeps growing and growing, stay away from that bet. Don't come in late on a line that's moved the entire week. Don't get involved in a public money move game. There are other games you can have fun with."

[Romanowski]

are you sure the Bengals opened as a favorite?

[JoeyOh]

if I remember, cinci -1

[xxxFTWxxx]

Not a good example... you can't predict that a QB is going to break his leg on the 1st play of the game.

[JoeyOh]

Originally Posted by xxxFTWxxx

Not a good example... you can't predict that a QB is going to break his leg on the 1st play of the game.

maybe but people were betting bengals all week

[mrwho]

That game started Pitts as a favorite from the start.

[JoeyOh]

Originally Posted by MrWho

That game started Pitts as a favorite from the start.

NFL opening line report: Wild Card weekend

By Stephen Nover
Mon, Jan 2, 2006


Three of the four NFL wild card betting lines fell in place. But what happened on that Steelers-Bengals number?

Some places opened Cincinnati -3. The line currently is Pittsburgh -3.

“My thoughts were it should have been pick’em,” said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Three of the five oddsmakers at LVSC, the company that supplies the betting numbers to many of the hotels in Nevada, recommended opening the Bengals -3. Seba had pick and another consultant had Pittsburgh -3. So they went with the majority, sending the Bengals out as a field goal favorite.

Bob Scucci, sportsbook director at the Stardust Hotel, shaded the Bengals down to 2 ½ and used that as his opening number. It didn’t take long for Pittsburgh money to come streaming in.

“I’d probably like to take this one back and open pick’em,” Scucci said Monday morning on the “Stardust Line” radio show. “… But once you’re at 2 ½, where you are less than a field goal favorite, there’s not a lot of resistance to crossing over favorites.

“We saw a lot of money on them (the Steelers), but we moved it quickly.”

Those liking the Bengals point out home-field advantage. However, Cincy covered just one of its last seven home games. The Bengals are not playoff tested, either, having last made the post-season 16 years ago. In addition, Carson Palmer could be less than 100 percent because of a groin pull and the Bengals have looked terrible their last two games, losing by a combined 44 points to the Chiefs and Bills.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have won their past four games by an average of 20 points. They are 6-2 on the road and have made the playoffs 10 of the last 14 seasons.

“I know Pittsburgh is on a roll, but I would think the number would close, less than 3,” Seba said. “You have to throw out yesterday’s Bengals game against the Chiefs because the Bengals didn’t really need it.

“The week before when they lost to Buffalo is more of a tell-tale sign, but they already were in good shape with the No. 3 seed pretty much wrapped up. So I think you have to throw out their last two games.

“They (Bengals and Steelers) split during the regular season. Home field means so much. I could see pick’em, but I have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh -3.”

There hasn’t been much movement on the other three first-round playoff games.

Tampa Bay opened -1 against the Redskins at the Stardust and are up to -2 ½. The total has gone down from 37 ½ to 36 ½.

“I think we’ll see more money later on the Buccaneers with the way the way they finished the year and the way (Chris) Simms is playing,” Scucci said.

In the Panthers-Giants matchup any New York -2 ½’s were drying up by Monday morning with the consensus number being 3.

“I hate to give Carolina three,” Seba said.

That seems to be the right number, though. The Giants are 8-1 at Giants Stadium this season, but Eli Manning continues to be up-and-down and the team has a cluster injury problem at linebacker and no cornerback who can handle Steve Smith.

The Jacksonville-New England number varies from place to place after opening Patriots -7, with some books showing New England -7 ½ and others at 8.

“I was debating how high to make this number,” Scucci said, “either 7 ½ or 8 ½. I went with 7 ½ and quickly moved to 8. I could easily seeing this game going to 8 ½ or 9 by kickoff.”

Bookmakers may have difficulty drawing action on the Jaguars from the public. People aren’t fooled by the Jaguars’ record. The Jaguars could be the worst 12-4 team ever. They played one team with a winning record their last 10 games. They trailed in nine of their 12 victories.

“I agree the Jaguars are the most overrated 12-4 team,” Seba said. “It’s going to be hard to get Jacksonville money, especially if the weather is bad. I can’t see it coming back to 7.”

Seba said professional gamblers would take the Jaguars if the line reached Patriots -9.

One break for Jacksonville is the return of starting quarterback Byron Leftwich from a broken ankle. Seba says Leftwich is worth 2 or 2 ½ points on the line. The Jaguars did go 5-1 behind backup quarterback David Garrard. Those victories came against the Cardinals, Browns, 49ers, Texans and Titans.

“Garrard will get you through, but who did he beat that was any good?” Seba said. “He did a good job, but Leftwich is much better.”

It’s a tough spot, though, for Leftwich to come back playing at Foxboro in January with a late starting time.

[mrwho]

Trust me man I went on right after that Sunday concluded. Pinnacle and Cris had Pitts -1.

[Romanowski]

offshore I belive Pitt was a fav from get go, may be wrong Joey

[Romanowski]

Back to topic....in any case good tip Joey

[JoeyOh]

Originally Posted by MrWho

Trust me man I went on right after that Sunday concluded. Pinnacle and Cris had Pitts -1.

PITTSBURGH (11-5) at CINCINNATI (11-5); 4:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS

By the Numbers | Key Matchup
Stats and Streaks


By the Numbers
OPENING LINE - Bengals by 1.
RECORD VS. SPREAD - Steelers 10-6; Bengals 8-7-1.
SERIES RECORD - Steelers lead 42-29.
LAST MEETING - Bengals 38, Steelers 31, Dec. 4, 2005 at Pittsburgh.
LAST WEEK - Steelers beat Lions 35-21. Bengals lost to Chiefs 37-3.
STEELERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (15T), RUSH (5), PASS (24)
STEELERS DEFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (3), PASS (16)
BENGALS OFFENSE - OVERALL (6), RUSH (11), PASS (5)
BENGALS DEFENSE - OVERALL (28), RUSH (20), PASS (26)

Key Matchup
Pittsburgh vs. the road.
The Steelers went 6-2 on the road, including a 27-13 win in Cincinnati on Oct. 23. Pittsburgh has reason to feel similarly, going into Paul Brown Stadium as a favorite - the only road team in the NFL playoffs that's favored. Besides having won their last four games at Cincinnati, the Steelers have won four straight road playoff games and have opened with a victory in their last seven trips to the postseason. The Steelers are 6-0 all-time in playoffs vs. division opponents. The Bengals were 5-3 at home. Cincinnati notched its first winning season and playoff berth since 1990. The Bengals could have set a franchise record for victories with wins in the final two games, but lost at home to sub-.500 Buffalo and were blown out in Kansas City. The Bengals went 4-3 in the last seven games and gave up an average of 30 points per game.

Streaks, Stats and Notes
Pittsburgh's defense gives up only 3.4 yards per carry and has allowed one 100-yard rusher - Indianapolis' Edgerrin James - all season. ... Bill Cowher is 20-8 vs. the Bengals, his most wins vs. any team. ... Since they won their last Super Bowl during the 1979 season, the Steelers have won only two of eight road playoff games. They won at Denver in 1984 and Houston in 1989. ... QB Ben Roethlisberger owns 99.1 passer rating, completing 70 of 101 (69.3 percent.) with seven TDs vs. four INTs in four games against Cincinnati. ... Steelers' defense is tied for third-fewest points allowed in league (16.1). ... Willie Parker was the only undrafted running back among the NFL's 16 1,000-yard rushers, and his 1,202 yards were the most by a Steelers player since Jerome Bettis ran for 1,341 yards in 2000. ... Steelers are 24-18 in the playoffs. ... Cincinnati has a plus-24 turnover margin, best in the league. ... Bengals have 10 victories for first time since 1988, when club was 12-4 and advanced to the Super Bowl. ... QB Carson Palmer set club record in 2005 with NFL-leading 32 TD passes (Ken Anderson, 29, 1981). Palmer finished season with second-highest passer rating (101.1) in NFL. ... RB Rudi Johnson (1,458) set club record for yards rushing in consecutive seasons. ... RB Chris Perry (51) posted more catches than any AFC RB in playoffs. ... WR Chad Johnson is first player to lead conference in yards receiving three consecutive years since Tim Brown (AFC, 1993-95) and Jerry Rice (NFC, 1993-95). Johnson (1,432 yards) also led AFC in receptions (97). ... WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh had career-best 78 receptions for 956 yards. ... Offensive line allowed club's all-time low 21 sacks. ... Cincinnati surrendered fewest lost fumbles in league (6). Defense seized NFL-best 31 INTs. ... Rookie LB Odell Thurman had five INTs to lead all rookies and tie for most in NFL by LB. ... CB Deltha O'Neal (10) set club record in INTs. ... K Shayne Graham led AFC with 131 points. ... Cincinnati is 5-7 in the playoffs.

© 2005 The Associated Press

[JoeyOh]

Originally Posted by Rome

Back to topic....in any case good tip Joey

ty, this game really was just an example. tip is much more important

[JoeyOh]

...

[jonnyblaze]

Joeys right. That line opened up Bengals for about 12-14 hours