Football Betting Tips

[Kramer]

Football Point Spreads - Spotting Bargains!
Can 3½ points be a better line than 9½ points? You bet!

Football scoring is a "numbers game" … points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the Bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point spreads.

Well over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17 (not necessarily in that order!)

So, the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can represent a significant betting opportunity.

Watch for Threes!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win the game. So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.

And, by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET on the underdog. These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger changes.

For instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference.

When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.



Lucky 13
To gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!

It's true! When predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31

These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.

Lets say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score likely won't happen- Try and adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27.

Now you are dealing with a point spread more likely to happen

[Kramer]

1) Keep it entertaining and fun to do, while playing intelligently, and the small
house advantage in the game of your choice will be a small price for you
to pay for that entertainment.

2) Give yourself a limit in time and money spent for this entertainment, treating it as
any other recreational sport. You wouldn't agonize through three double head
days of baseball back to back, or a marathon viewing session of three, four or five hockey games in one night, so don't over do this form of sport either.

Making Your Money Count For Football Bets

Gamblers or prospective gamblers beware! Most gambling hype you read, see, or hear in regard to betting sports is misinformed, erroneous or simply designed to take your money before you even place a bet. In order to be successful sports bettor, you have to have skills in money management, play selection, a good attitude, and reasonable expectations as to what you can expect to win if you are successful. Let me give you a method of money management as an eye opener:

Size of Bet Minimum Bankroll

$20 - $30 per game $1,000 - $2,000
$40 - $50 per game $2,000 - $3,000
$100 per game $5,000
$500 per game $25,000



Most players start the season with absolutely no clue as to how much capital it takes to withstand the ups and downs of a typical football season. You should give yourself enough money to have a chance all year.Sports betting is nearly always full of streaks.
Even with great handicapping, you’re still going tolose 40 percent of your bets, so be prepared. You've got a bankroll, so what’s next? Divide it up as follows:

Bankroll Average Bet College Pro Reserve

$1,000 -$25 $400 $400 $200
$2,000 -$50 $800 $800 $400
$5,000 -$100 $2,000 $2,000 $1,000
$25,000 -$500 $10,000 $10,000 $5,000

Here is the important part. Never risk more than 25 percent to 30 percent of your bankroll on any week. In other words, if you like 5 pro games you will bet 6 percent of our bankroll on each game. On the best plays you will bet 8 percent and maybe
2 to 3 times a year you will find a game that’s worth 10 percent of your bankroll.
If you love a lotta action, simply drop your bet size (2 percent to 3 percent), but never risk more than 33 percent of your bankroll in one day. If you win one week, your bankroll is larger so you’ll automatically increase your bets as you win and conversely decrease your bets as you lose. The purpose of the reserve is to recapitalize one of your
bankrolls if the season starts out cold and you hit an early losing streak. In a typical year you should be cautious weeks 1 – 4, be bold weeks 5 – 12, and then revert to caution until the play-offs and bowl games.

[Kramer]

Professional Handicappers 5 Secrets

Five secrets that professional handicappers know...

...and that every recreational bettor should learn

Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sportsbetting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a horrible thing either – if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going belly up far more often than they do, and bettors would run out of places to play. And many bettors really don’t care very much about earning a long term profit. They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these type of bettors are far more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or NCAA Tournament.

Much of the industry jargon considers money management as important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around buzzwords like ‘money management’ and describing esoteric concepts like ‘isolate a percentage of bankroll’ and ‘positive expectation bets’ really doesn’t help the fortunes of most recreational bettors. If you, personally, are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than this essay will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be a successful sports bettor, even as an amateur, and earn a profit from your betting over an extended period of time, here are some tips that should help you in that quest.

1) Don’t bet into bad numbers. Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the average college basketball Saturday, for example, there are at least ½ dozen games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. If he bet on the game, the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every one of those decisions. He’ll either getting the push when others lost, or he’ll get the win when others pushed. (I use ‘he’ because, to be honest, every professional sports bettor that I know is a man – this is a very segregated industry in that regard). The pro will take the extra time to shop around for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He’ll have accounts that are funded in enough places to ensure that when he finds the line that he is looking for, he’ll be able to place the bet. And he’ll have an idea of which direction the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late, depending on which time offers an advantageous number. The pro wins by a half point far more often than he loses by the hook. Making a modest 20 bets a week (1000 a year, a number that is on the low side for most professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers. Assuming the bettor is betting a modest 2% of his bankroll on any given play, those 20 or 30 favorable decisions translates into a 40-60% swing in his return on his sportsbetting investment. That’s not chump change, folks, it’s hard earned profit gained one half point at a time!

2) Make more straight bets and fewer parlays. Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets as straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is closer to 50:50, and there are many, many amateurs who rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro’s bread and butter. Professionals are satisfied with the return on investment from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in it for the long haul, not always looking for the quick score that parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big paydays that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will be even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide even in a good overall season. Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town. That’s not to say pro bettors never go for the longshot score, but when they do, they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their bankroll, and they do it in conjunction with their straight bets, not in lieu of them.

3) Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores. It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false assumptions. This team got killed, that team gave ‘em all they could handle. But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really have no idea of what took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are examining are in. It’s key to handicap games again, after the games are over. What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise? Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an anomaly? Here’s an example. The Pistons play the Bulls at home, as nine point favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the box score, it’s clear that Detroit dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the rebounding battle and forced the Bulls into turnovers. They led by double digits at halftime and after three quarters. Bu the Bulls hit some late shots in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game was. On that same night, the Raptors are nine point favorites to the Nuggets, and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box score here indicates a whole different story. The Raptors trailed throughout this game, but got hot in the 4th quarter to steal the win. Toronto made an uncharacteristic 27-30 from the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Denver shot just 4-19 in the 4th quarter. By examining the box scores you can recognize that the Pistons are in better form than the Raptors and/or the Nuggets are in better form than the Bulls, making your future wagers involving those teams more likely to be successful, even though the final scores of the two games were exactly the same.

4) Take advantage of value. Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. And amateur bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with ‘public’ teams, betting them over and over again. In college sports, these ‘public’ teams are usually in the Top 25, from a major conference – well known schools. In the pro sports, they are the hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective divisions or conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many of the best teams in the country, and either bet against many of the good teams or pass on their games entirely. Instead, the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the ‘good but not great’ type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should only be getting four. It’s equally important to recognize when the linesmakers have priced you out of a play. Kentucky and Arizona have been red hot in college basketball for the last couple of months, and they are the top two teams in the whole country right now. While few bettors of any ilk like to step in front of juggernauts like these, they also recognize that the time to back these two schools has come and gone – there’s no value on their respective sides. Both clubs had great records against the spread at one point this season, but neither is above .500 vs. the number here in February.

5) Be smart when betting your streaks. It’s one of the most common mistakes that amateurs make, and it’s quite possibly the most costly. They press their losses, raising the stakes to get back to even off a losing week/streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when you lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few and far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody. Rather than raising the stakes during those times when you are having a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. There’s no ‘double or nothing’ attitude on Monday Night Football games for the pro. Conversely, the pro knows that winning streaks are the time to press your bets, not the time to pull back with a conservative approach to their recent profit. When a ‘capper is in good form and good rhythm, with his read on the games in solid form and the bounces generally falling in his direction, he’s not afraid to raise his stakes a bit, making larger plays when the percentages are in his favor (positive expectation wagers) It sounds so basic – don’t chase losses, ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors are able to maintain an even keel during periods of higher rates than the norm of both successes and of failures.

[Kramer]

The Courage to Win in the NFL

Unfortunately, most pro football bettors are losers. That is not meant to be an insult but rather is a statement of fact. The overwhelming majority of those who bet on pro football lose money, often tons of it, and do so frequently. Some lose because they are not any good at it, some lose because they have no discipline or self-control and others lose because they simply cannot overcome the “house edge” which is stacked against the gambler. But many pro football bettors lose because they lack the courage to win.

A good analogy would be two mafia dons, Tony “Joe Batters” Accardo of Chicago and John “Dapper Don” Gotti of New York. Accardo was the long time and highly successful boss of the Chicago outfit off and on for or fifty years, often having to come out of retirement to serve when more flashy bosses went to prison or failed. Accardo spent his entire adult life in the outfit but never spent a night in jail. Gotti, on the other hand, was known for designer suits, haircuts, and girlfriends. He loved to give lavish Fourth of July block parties and be seen at all of the local hot discos. He was frequently mentioned in all of New York 's notorious gossip tabloids and was a bona fide celebrity. Gotti ended up serving a short term as boss because of his out of control and flashy style. What does this have to do with gambling? The loudest and flashiest of gamblers are usually in trouble and the ones that you never notice are the ones with the edge. You will often encounter the braggarts, showboats, and blowhards at pro football betting chat rooms or at the Vegas sportsbooks. Better to oppose everything they say than to follow them over the cliff.

Part of these quiet types being so successful and understated is because the have the discipline and self-control to do the right thing, to bet within their means and to make their bankroll last. They are never out of the game nor betting the rent on bailout schemes. Nobody wants to hear that their $500 gambling bankroll must be broken down into small percentages, no more than 10-percent, for each wager made against the betting boards. But those few that understand and listen are the ones that will stay in the game and eventually wear down the oddsmakers due to their diligence.
Now take you flashy and gaudy types. They may talk a lot of smack in their silk jackets and wave their fancy jewelry but it's an immediate indicator that they likely have little discipline or self control. Anyone that is talking smack is potentially giving away an edge, (if they really even had one), and or just reinforcing the obvious that everyone knows.
If you ever sit in a Las Vegas sportsbook or online pro football betting chat rooms you should quickly be able to tell the amateurs, the wannabes, and the pros apart by their demeanor.