Friday the 13th 2029

[Jahred]

Earth will be comming very close to doomsday in 2029.

BUT the same day April 13 (friday the 13th) 2036 we might not be so lucky.

the only good new is that we will know for sure 10 years in advance.




May 13, 2005: Friday the 13th is supposed to be an unlucky day, the sort of day you trip on your shoe laces or lose your wallet or get bad news.

But maybe it's not so bad. Consider this: On April 13th--Friday the 13th--2029, millions of people are going to go outside, look up and marvel at their good luck. A point of light will be gliding across the sky, faster than many satellites, brighter than most stars.

What's so lucky about that? It's asteroid 2004 MN4 ... not hitting Earth.

For a while astronomers thought it might. On Christmas Eve 2004, Paul Chodas, Steve Chesley and Don Yeomans at NASA's Near Earth Object Program office calculated a 1-in-60 chance that 2004 MN4 would collide with Earth. Impact date: April 13, 2029.

Right: The orbits of Earth and asteroid 2004 MN4. [More]

The asteroid is about 320 meters wide. "That's big enough to punch through Earth's atmosphere," devastating a region the size of, say, Texas, if it hit land, or causing widespread tsunamis if it hit ocean, says Chodas. So much for holiday cheer.

Asteroid 2004 MN4 had been discovered in June 2004, lost, then discovered again six months later. With such sparse tracking data it was difficult to say, precisely, where the asteroid would go. A collision with Earth was theoretically possible. "We weren't too worried," Chodas says, "but the odds were disturbing."



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This is typical, by the way, of newly-discovered asteroids. Step 1: An asteroid is discovered. Step 2: Uncertain orbits are calculated from spotty tracking data. Step 3: Possible Earth impacts are noted. Step 4: Astronomers watch the asteroid for a while, then realize that it's going to miss our planet.

Killer Asteroid! headlines generally appear between steps 3 and 4, but that's another story.

Astronomers knew 2004 MN4 would miss Earth when they found pictures of the asteroid taken, unwittingly, in March 2004, three months before its official discovery. The extra data ruled out a collision in 2029.

Instead, what we're going to have is an eye-popping close encounter:

On April 13, 2029, asteroid 2004 MN4 will fly past Earth only 18,600 miles (30,000 km) above the ground. For comparison, geosynchronous satellites orbit at 22,300 miles (36,000 km). "At closest approach, the asteroid will shine like a 3rd magnitude star, visible to the unaided eye from Africa, Europe and Asia--even through city lights," says Jon Giorgini of JPL. This is rare. "Close approaches by objects as large as 2004 MN4 are currently thought to occur at 1000-year intervals, on average."



Above: The trajectory (blue) of asteroid 2004 MN4 past Earth on April 13, 2029. Uncertainty in the asteroid's close-approach distance is represented by the short white bar. [More]

The asteroid's trajectory will bend approximately 28 degrees during the encounter, "a result of Earth's gravitational pull," explains Giorgini. What happens next is uncertain. Some newspapers have stated that the asteroid might swing around and hit Earth after all in 2035 or so, but Giorgini discounts that: "Our ability to 'see' where 2004 MN4 will go (by extrapolating its orbit) is so blurred out by the 2029 Earth encounter, it can't even be said for certain what side of the sun 2004 MN4 will be on in 2035. Talk of Earth encounters in 2035 is premature."

In January 2004, a team of astronomers led by Lance Benner of JPL pinged 2004 MN4 using the giant Arecibo radar in Puerto Rico. (Coincidentally, the Arecibo dish is about the same size as the asteroid.) Echoes revealed the asteroid's precise distance and velocity, "allowing us to calculate the details of the 2029 flyby," says Giorgini, who was a member of the team along with Benner, Mike Nolan (NAIC) and Steve Ostro (JPL).

More data are needed to forecast 2004 MN4's motion beyond 2029. "The next good opportunities are in 2013 and 2021," Giorgini says. The asteroid will be about 9 million miles (14 million km) from Earth, invisible to the naked eye, but close enough for radar studies. "If we get radar ranging in 2013, we should be able to predict the location of 2004 MN4 out to at least 2070."

Right: The Arecibo radar in Puerto Rico is coincidentally about the size of asteroid 2004 MN4. [More]

The closest encounter of all, Friday the 13th, 2029, will be a spectacular opportunity to explore this asteroid via radar. During this encounter, says Giorgini, "radar could detect the distortion of 2004 MN4's shape and spin as it passes through Earth's gravity field. How the asteroid changes (or not) would provide information about its internal structure and material composition." Beautifully-detailed surface maps are possible, too.

The view through an optical telescope won't be so impressive. The asteroid's maximum angular diameter is only 2 to 4 arcseconds, which means it will be a starlike point of light in all but the very largest telescopes.

But to the naked eye--wow! No one in recorded history has ever seen an asteroid in space so bright.

Friday the 13th might not be so bad after all.

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[TCD619]

heard this TOO MANY Times....what about y2k????? its all hype. you know when the worlds coming to an end? when you die.

[bpiets]

Actually the 'dumb' 'humans' will send a space craft to 'it' to get samples and ther-by alter the 'trojectery' and same 'hits' earth...lol....besides the 'coming' leader in the 'EUROPEAN COMMON MARKET' WILL START'WORLD WAR 3 after being in office for 3.5 years aprox. and this person will shortly be on the 'sceen' via a 'making' of a temporary 7 year aprox' peace treaty in the middle east but 'he' will break same after 3.5 years aprox.... and all this BEFORE 2021...that persons 'rule' over the ECONOMICS/POLITICAL/RELIGIOUS etc. over the ENTIRE WORLD is just around the corner....( north america will become a 'european' sat-a-lite via i.o.u's...and the 'selling-out' of 'big buissness ) so 'you' don't need to concern 'yourself' about the ass-ter-oid....
oh, yeah....lol...this again will be the 'war' to end all wars....lol.....( p.s. 'i' won't be 'here' 'i'm' going 'up' in the reserection'....don't want to be a part in the 'time' so bad that nothing in the history of 'man-kind' will equall this time 'under' this rule'.....lol....

[bpiets]

Originally Posted by tdiddy619

heard this TOO MANY Times....what about y2k????? its all hype. you know when the worlds coming to an end? when you die.

All the 'calenders' come to an end just before 2020 and even the past 'predictions of the 'china' calender end at 2040....lol...via past 'phyics'/etc....including 'cayce'/nostradameis'/the catholic church/indian 'Legends/mid-east projections'/etc...lol...( time stops as 'we' know' 'it'....)...and a 'new' future by the 'return' of 'our' LORD JESUS CHRIST...thank 'GOD' .... ...

[Romanowski]

theres is zero similarity between this and Y2k

LOL

[Jahred]

ya.. i got a feeling these guys didnt even read this...

this is scientific FACT not some psychic prediction

2029 the asteriod WILL come very close to earth... it will go inbetween our satalites and our surface... which is a very small space considering.

2036 it will be even closer... pretty much we should miss it again but who knows...

liike i said... the good part about all this is that we will know the EXACT DATE AND TIME when this is going down 10 YEARS IN ADVANCE... maybe thats not a good thing..lol

[revnecro1273]

friday the 13th is only seen as "unlucky" from a euro/north american perspective

[Jahred]

Originally Posted by revnecro1273

friday the 13th is only seen as "unlucky" from a euro/north american perspective

according to science.. in 2029 it will be a lucky day

[mrwho]

2029 i'll be 50...i guess my life would be mostly fullfilled by then if anything should happen..

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by revnecro1273

friday the 13th is only seen as "unlucky" from a euro/north american perspective

cool tidbit rio

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

cool tidbit rio

thanx, but i am not rio

friday the 13th tends to only been as unlucky in europe and north america...when the movie friday the 13th was released in south america the named had to be changed because nobody understood what it meant down there

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by Jahred

ya.. i got a feeling these guys didnt even read this...

lol...you are right...i didnt read the whole thread.