Handicapper Documentation: The Way It Should Be and the Way It Is

[Dr. Jack]

Handicapper Documentation: The Way It Should Be and the Way It Is
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

A lot of beliefs may sound great in theory but do not quite cut it in the real world. To those of you socialists out there, I guess I can grant that your viewpoints may look good on paper, but are more than flawed in reality. Well, at least this unabashed capitalist will fight you to the death believing such.

It is somewhat analogous when it comes to selecting a handicapper who is documented. It is impossible to dispute logically that any and all handicappers should be independently and verifiably documented by an outside party. After all, if a handicapper has nothing to hide, what is he worried about? Well, history tells us that thinking is not without flaw, but we shall keep it confined to how the seemingly fool-proof belief is not as clear cut as it may seem in the handicapping world.

First and foremost is that sadly the betting public draws little distinction between legitimate documentation and fabricated. It is not my policy to get into public battles with other handicappers so I will not mention his name, but I know that as we entered the new century, a well-known handicapper was claiming to be, “Documented over 80-percent in the 90’s.”

Here is a secret that I want to share with you: he is lying. But almost as sad is that he is going to get a lot more mileage out of his falsehood than anyone who can legitimately claim to have hit better than 55-percent each of the last three years in the NFL.

So what is the use making realistic legitimate claims when the next guys are going to fallaciously claim a percentage that is double-digits higher than yours? Handicappers can get away with making outlandish claims and they do. While the gullible public who fall for such shams are schemed out of their money, those of us who do not stoop to that level take a financial hit professionally as well.

Many, too many in fact, will patronize not the handicappers who actually churn out the finest results, but those who without checks and balances, declare the best outcome.

I always purchase a new card getting the real invoice price from Edmunds---the auto world’s adaptation of certification. I then negotiate from that point. Any car salesmen will tell you that a small minority come prepared knowing the real invoice prices. Dummy invoices with trumped up processing fees make more sales than real ones.

What car shoppers “should” do and what they do actually do, are far from one and the same.

My only other real hobby besides living and breathing sports is dining. Personally when I visit a new city, I look for restaurants given high ratings by Zagat’s, the true foodies Bible. Most people would rather eat at some cheesy chain restaurant under the same circumstances. Substance is secondary to name recognition and a familiarity level.

So if you own a car dealership or a restaurant, should you be more concerned with what “should” get you the most customers or what will get you the most? I am guessing that most would choose the realist route, not the idealist one.

There is an old saying that a good product sells itself. It should, but in the real world a lot of Ivy League grads are being paid six and seven figures coming up with fancy marketing gimmicks that have little to do with informing customers of the product.

After all in the good product sells itself, great advertising attention-grabbers would be futile. The only purpose of a commercial or advertisement would be to inform the public about the benefits of said product. There would be no need for famous spokespersons or bikini laden big-breasted women to grab your attention. Hey, let me think that last one over. Okay, we do need the top heavy babes in skimpy bikinis.

So when a handicapper decides on if and where to get documented, he must consider the marketing realities rather than simple pie in the sky belief that he is legitimate, thus he has to be documented.

Another truth is that most gamblers are more concerned with who is hot than who has the big play, than any long-term record. While sports investors should find a quality handicapper and ride the peaks, which will outnumber the valleys, most just follow a handicapper while he is hot then jolts to another foreteller.

So again, the idealist philosophy should have handicappers offering only long-term packages because all gamblers “should” know there will be some slumps along the way but good handicappers, with Godspicks topping the list, will have a lot more and a lot longer winning streaks.

But virtually every handicapper offers a one-day package and he should, at least in the real world. Sadly so many gamblers just want to hop on the bandwagon of a streaking handicapper. Thus regardless of what any documentation site says, the only documentation source that he cares about is his own wallet.

There are other faults as well in watertight-sounding documentation. I know of a popular newsgroup contributor who states emphatically that the only legitimate way to document is one-unit per play. I know of few gamblers who bet the same amount each game. Realistic sports investors know that they will not win every game thus it is basic money management that if someone believes one play has a 55% chance of winning, while another selection has a 65% chance, it is basic common sense that more must be risked with games that the bettor has more confidence in.

Even more so, the way I bet baseball is with the money line relative to how much of chance that a particular game has of winning. Money management is of utmost importance in baseball. Those who insist on one-unit per play are in reality defending inaccurate documentation to any handicapper who understands the realities of money management.

I have a lot of contacts in the industry and I was surveying them on the pros and cons of documentation. The owner of one of the tops gambling hubs on the Internet brought up an interesting point. He said that it would be stupid for him to advertise that he would be documented at another site simply because he would direct a lot more traffic to that URL than all of the small time handicappers on that site would. He asked rhetorically why he should send more potential clients to that documentation site than other low volume handicappers would send to him.

Several handicappers affiliated with this hub are documented, but it is never mentioned on the high volume site. That is probably the best strategy for any soothsayer that has already developed a significant following. Get documented by a site in which they will send traffic to you, but you never send your clients to their site. It is just good business.

There is little debate, that if someone is independently and accurately documented at a site, he keeps himself honest—you hope. But I know of a lot of honest handicappers whose selections I would not bet with my worst enemy’s money. Yet I know of some scamdicappers who either have competent people making their selections or subscribe to quality handicappers and redistribute their plays for 20 times the price. They do not have inside information or hit 80-percent as they claim. But they may also not have coin-flip plays either.

Avoid the handicappers exposed by HBO and Sports Illustrated at all costs and without exception. But be cautious about losing with handicappers who advertise on their sites where they are monitored. He may be honest, but may be oblivious to the realities of marketing a product both in his industry and outside of it. A bad businessperson could very well be a bad handicapper. A poor businessperson in any industry regardless of how good his product, may not be long for what he does. Do you want to invest with that person?

Many good handicappers are documented, many good handicappers are not. Others who are documented never publicize where. In many cases, it’s not for the reasons that you think!


Joe Duffy is General Manager of Freescoreboard.com, the source for world class handicappers and sports information. He is part of handicapping’s Dream Team at www.godspicks.com

[guslavidas]

nice write up
i enjoyed it

A+

Joe and Mike are good cappers and a great service that wins daily
and never play both ways ( thats why i respect godspicks)
they are HONEST Service!!

[showell]

Gus, you are right on. This article was right on the mark. I enjoyed it alot. If cappers are legit, and have nothing to hide, they should be documented, there record should be right out in the open for all to see so a person could choose which service he or she might want to use. Very nice write up. lol today all. AAHHH, base ball in back.