Handicapping - most important factor you consider

[Dr. Jack]

Everyone who contributes to this thread this week will have a chance to win an IPOD. On Friday we will have a random drawing for the prize for anyone who is listed in this thread.

We are looking for important factors you consider when handicapping a game in any sport!

Leave your thoughts and tell us why!

[The Judge]

1. Recent performances
2. Scoring comparisons
3. Common opponent comparisons
4. Injury reports
5. Head-to-head comparisons

The last three are usually about equally important when I handicap a game. Obviously, injuries to key players have to be more heavily factored in.

I know that I will get some grief for saying this but I never look at public percentages and only give line movement a cursory glance. In my opinion, it is all about the way the teams match up. If you spend sufficient time handicapping the fundimentals of the game, you can come out on top.

[domafia]

Every sport has its own specific stats and trends to look at when capping (for example, rebounds in basketball or pitchers/umpires in baseball), but the basic tenet I follow no matter what the sport, is that you need to become very familiar with the betting lines. You need to get a good understanding of why the lines are set where they are and try to interpret the reasoning behind it. You can identify good betting opportunites by comparing a posted line to what you feel the line probably should be in your head. Money percentages and line movement can be factors as well, but that basic understanding of lines is the most important factor.

I often find myself strapped for time in capping and can resort to simply spending a few minutes analyzing the lines and making my bets on a few key games where I believe the line is skewed to get action on one side. This can be a daunting task however during a full slate of games (such as college sports on a Saturday).

Another suggestion that I am trying to force myself to adopt is to shrink down the scope of my research. In other words in college - only follow 1-2 conferences and try to limit your bets to only those teams you have a good read on. I find the less teams you have to follow and keep up on, the easier it is to make smarter wagering decisions.

[Davydave]

Momentum must also be considered, there are teams that go on a run, that beat teams that they normally can't beat just because of the positive attitude associated with being "on a winning streak".... and it is hard to bet against that until it ends.

D

[GatorMike]

Agreed Davydave. Momentum is one of my biggest X-Factor's when I cap. Looking at a team's Last 5 games and Last 10 games is huge. Is a team performing? Are they living on the edge? Are they getting blown out? All key trends to look for.

[Romanowski]

1. Key Stats/Key Injuries
Whatever the sport, you decide whats important.
Be it rebound differential, assist to turnerover, or how you'd rate the offensive line, we all view what is key differently to winning a game. Coaches have different coching styles. Is the player who is vital playing?
2. Teams strength vs Team Weakness
example team with favorable 3 point shooting, that relies on 3pt to make up a high percentage of their points vs a team who has great perimeter defense and generally doesnt allow a high percentage on 3 pt shot attempts
3. Recent Performance
last 3-5 games stats vs entire season, are they improving, declining?
4. Line Movement vs Betting Percentages
Line Moving the way supposed percentage would incline?
5. Head to Head History
not as important, especially in college ranks when teams are full of different rosters, although can be a psychological block
6. Roll the dice!!
stats are like bikinis, they reveal some but not all, thats why its gambling

[FOTH]

Well considering the mental aspects first:

1) How much to actually put on a specific game due to your confidence level
2) Perhaps just bet the same amount each game and if you are over 52% in wins you will profit

In the stats department for basketball I look at the following:

1) Back to back games for a team or not? (if so they will come out tired in beginning)
2) FG% vs Defensive FG% <-- this is the most important factor in basketball capping because pts for and allowed are just things that go with the flow of the game. To measure how good a team really is in scoring is by their FG%.
3) For college games you have to look at FT%, espically in the last 5 minutes of the game. Like baseball, you need a good closer.

[Hoosiercatdaddy]

For me, the most important thing to do first is to see if the line makes sense. If the line does not make sense and is way off, there are other things to look at. If the line make sense, you then need to look at past matchups and road/home record. There are some teams that just cant win on the road. If you have a bad team playing at home and are a small favorite against a team that has a good record, but a bad road record, the home team could have some value. I try not to look too much into injuries unless their status is unknown. Books are usually right on with their line on whether or not that player is playing. Very rarely will they release a line assuming a players status and then that player does the opposite of what they thought. I also think you can look TOO far into a game. There are many times I will look at a game and off of instinct pick the correct winner. I will then look into it and let line movement, money % and all sorts of other factors change my mind. Sometimes if it looks too good to be true, it could be. Most of the time though, if it looks WAY too easy, it probably is a trap.

Everything I just said is for Hoops and Foots. It is different for bases I think.

[BTO]

1. Never exclude a handicapping strategy.
2. Never think you are smarter than the books.
3. Many times if the line looks to good to be true it is.

The first thing I like to factor in is to see if one of the teams dominates the other. I believe in betting the streak until it’s over with.

[jonnyblaze]

1)situation
2) actual game/teams analysis
3) trends
4) situation
5) ATS, O/U and SU stats
6) situation

[Seanie Mac]

money
line movement.

6 mins tops to pick games.

[pats3peat]

for NBA as an example.. take the last 10 games.. study the injuries to see if injuries affected any of those games and if anybody who came back is making a difference... also if u think the Line is on point and the oddsmakers are doing a good job its a good opportunity for a teaser.. (if you're leaning towards underdog and think its on-point then take the underdogin it)

look at divisional opponents and how they fair against them.. or conference if its the CBB

coaching rivalries.. umpires in baseball.. referee advantage

[jonnyblaze]

Originally Posted by pats3peat

coaching rivalries.. umpires in baseball.. referee advantage

[Romanowski]

Blaze you dont 2 drawings for posting twice

good luck and godbless

[jonnyblaze]

Originally Posted by Rome

Blaze you dont 2 drawings for posting twice

good luck and godbless

i think I speak for all of us when i say: huh?