01-17-2006, 07:17 AM
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CM Hall Of Fame 2008
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Long Island
Posts: 37,582
Rewards: 3,473
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MREAST
I'm always wondering why people play parlays, and teasers, and buy points on games. Something I could never understand. Parlays,teasers, and buying points help build big buildings in Vegas!! Don't contribute. A high level capper is capable of 55-60% over the longhaul. What does that mean? You can cap your brains out, and it rarely makes a differnce. Raw chance is 50-50, great cappers are 55-60, that means for instance if you cap games at 55%, all the capping you did, results in just 1 net win per 20 games played. Instead of 10-10, you go 11-9!!! That means all the capping you did only comes into play 1 time every 20 games, or for a 3 game a night player, 1 game a week! yet that 1 game will make you a small fortune, but only if you have the disipline to stay away from the teasers,parlays,and that late play after a 2-2 day, just to try to make a winning day. That's where gamblers lose! You give back that 1 game a week edge that turns you from a winner, to a loser! That 1 teaser, that 1 parlay, that one bet because the game was on, that 1 bet because you were 2-2,etc. There are many cappers here, and elsewhere that can hit 55%. The problem is, most hit 55% and lose money!! Why? because they give back that small edge all there hard work and energy gave them. Hope this sinks in with at least 1 person, or you'll never be a winner, not because I say so, but because the odds say so.
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I agree, HOWEVER, there are times where buying the 1/2 point can turn a loser into a push, or a push into a winner. I ONLY do it in rare situations. I will buy a 7.5 fave down to 7 or a 3.5 fave down to 3, and I will buy a 2.5 dog up to 3 and a 6.5 dog up to 7 (and sometimes a 7 point dog up to 7.5). I recently did that Christmas, when the Bears were a 7 point fave over the Packers. I bought Green Bay up to 7.5 and won by the hook that I had bought. I look at it this way, if I win 1 game in 10 that I otherwise would've lost, then it was worthwhile. Assuming you are a $100 bettor, you would lose an extra $10 ($120 instead of $110) on each play you buy the 1/2 point and still lose. So, if you win 1 play out of 10 that you would've otherwise lost, you don't lose any money at all. I do not do this everytime--just in certain situations where my gut tells me it is going to land right on the number. Of course, if you win any of these plays without needing the extra 1/2 point, then it becomes a "no harm no foul" situation. Just my thoughts on it. I do agree about parlays and teasers--although I will occasionally do a teaser for the fun of it.
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