Hey Oldtimers....kick down on some tips.....

[mildavid]

Since we're not in competition with each other how about y'all successful cappers lay some knowledge on a beginner such as myself....

How do you determine which games deserve more unit play....

humbly,

mild

[TN TITAN Fan In STL]

Pick Winners

[mildavid]

"OLD TIMERS" is a term of endearment showing respect for your experience.

I'm over 50 and believe in mentoring, both giving and receiving. mentoring has enriched my life.

Please keep the tips and thoughts coming for I agree "knowledge is power" and it's tough to find mentors in handicapping.

In fact I would like to see this as a continuing subject (thread).

I am intrigued by the art of handicapping and there are no college courses that address it other than "Statistical analysis" and such. Yes, I have a lot of time on my hands. I played Hold'em poker for a year, I'm a break-even skill level and am now bored stiff by it. I like to shoot craps and am a good player but again it's not something that is fun everyday.

Over/Under.....so interesting, they wouldn't offer them if a lot of people didn't play them.....is there really value there?? How do you find it??

So, PLEASE let's have some conversations on the "Art of Handicapping" and always feel free to criticize my picks or plays...I am a big boy and comfortable with who I am.....LOL

mildly avid or avidly mild, take your pick...

mild

[Dr. Jack]

Well many people have different theories of what works, trends, stats, following or fading public money, line movement, sharp play, etc - I for one, believe that a handicapper can always improve and should always be willing to learn and adjust. To be successful you have to consider all handicapping methods and don't let being "stubborn" get in the way. As soon as someone thinks they have got it down and feel invincible is when it all crashes.

Everyone method and person runs hot and cold. I believe it's how you deal when you are losing or on a bad run that separates some from others. I mean everyone can get on a hot streak and there are times, when everything seems to easy. On the flip side, there are times when you can't pick your way out of a paper bag.

A good handicapper is always willing to learn and improve. JMO

[Heatsykker]

I'd like to hear from you great handicappers too. I've been tailing different cappers here cause I just can't call it right!! I've tried so many different ideas and I still can't get on that HOT STREAK!!!

My next project is to play TOTALS.....I've been just playing for fun the last week and have gone 9-2! Now I'm afraid to play for real cause my luck SUCKS. It doesn't matter what game I pick.....If I play for real, I get HAMMERED!!!

My advise Mildavid is to fade my picks today and you will have success

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Heatsykker

I'd like to hear from you great handicappers too. I've been tailing different cappers here cause I just can't call it right!! I've tried so many different ideas and I still can't get on that HOT STREAK!!!

My next project is to play TOTALS.....I've been just playing for fun the last week and have gone 9-2! Now I'm afraid to play for real cause my luck SUCKS. It doesn't matter what game I pick.....If I play for real, I get HAMMERED!!!

My advise Mildavid is to fade my picks today and you will have success

You can't expect overnight quick fix and just because you lose a few games in a row does not mean you can't be successful. Try not to switch methods so many times and give it a good amount of time before you give up.

Often people track something see a nice record in the testing stage and then jump on with disappointing results. That is because everything runs and hot cold, you need to look at long term success and not success over a day, week or even a month

I am not trying to speak for everyone but hope that makes some sense

[mildavid]

Thanx for the input.........I read them all..........thanx for taking the time to post.

as for tailing: if you tail all the time aren't you putting your fate in someone else hands?? Like having someone else do your homework??

I read a lot of postings, few put down why the make certain picks....

[Snowman]

Only bet 1 game a day

Look for the game that looks like it is too good to be true and bet the other team.

Bet underdogs

[primetime80]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Only bet 1 game a day

Look for the game that looks like it is too good to be true and bet the other team.

Bet underdogs

i agree and find that the monthly contest here has helped a great deal with discipline and learning to stick with one play win or lose.

[ghoopin]

Find someplace to see where the money is being bet and what the books have done with the line due to where money is being placed. Remember the books are in the business to profit, not give handouts. Most times if you watch the money and the lines, the books will show you where to "invest" your money.

[smet9772]

Get drunk and then play some picks.......Just messing with you. The main thing that I look at when capping games is match ups. Ex. Baseball, how a team bats against left handed pitcher, on the road, at home, during the day ect. And i look for games where I feel that I have an advantage and find a reasonable line and then take it. For football, I look for OL vs. DL. total weight, average rushing yards allowed per game, home vs. away. ect. (i could go on and on about the different stats but I don't want to bore you.)

But i just try and look at the stats and see when I find an advantage and then try and bounce on it. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't but I seem to do pretty well for myself.

Hope my ramble helps you.

[mildavid]

ramble??

more more more.....

mild

[vegaspete]

there is another forum where they have a section in the forums called "handicapper think tank" and instead of just posting that days picks people discuss different capping ideas and methods, I think this would be a good idea for this forum and if anyone else does, please post to let them know, of course people have to be willing to discuss and share their ideas, but hopefully they will add something like this...

[Bisket]

It's all about value

fade teams that you think have been overachieving and getting inflated lines

play teams that have underachieved and not getting respect from the books

[ronaldn]

Old gambling adage from an old gambler:
"Don't ask a bad team to do good things for you."
Also, and this goes along with the above:
"Don't bet on a team if you don't think it can win the game outright"

You will save yourself a bundle of money if you follow those rules.