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#1
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How Can You Take Away the Advantage From the Sportsbook or Sports Gaming Lines?
A wise guy once told me, "You don't want to make the bet, you want to take the bet." The clever man was my grandfather and he provided rather a good living for his kids and grandchildren doing just that - taking action. It didn't really make
good judgment to me at that young age, I mean one team has just as good a probability to cover as the other so where's the benefit? But that was before I knew about the concept of 'juice' or 'vig.' I mean, when my brother and I used to bet $5 on the Cowboys vs. the Steelers or something, that was it - loser owed $5. But the older I got, I became fully alert of how potent the concept of vigorish was and why the bookie had such lead over the player. Because you usually have to lay $110 to win $100, you can't just win 50% of your games and break even. You now want to hit ... 52.4% of your games to break even. Over the course of a season that makes a HUGE difference. Now envision you only had to lay -105 ... every day. What would that do to your necessary winning %? Well, it lowers the break even point down to 51.2%! You've just stolen 50 percent of the lead back from the bookie! For somebody like myself who makes a living doing this, that is extremely critical! If you can find a sportsbook with reduced juice and they never shade their lines then you're in good shape. You can always get the 'true' number on a game, even if they're taking a huge amount of the betting action. A competitive bonus program is another huge way to take some of the advantage back from the casino. So if you still want to make the bet, here is a impressive way to take the edge away from the sportsbook. Don't continue getting taken advantage of when you don't have to. All the best until next time, Rich Allen - aka Sports Betting Professor |
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#2
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1st post is an explanation of how juice works?
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#3
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the "deep" professor in the house
talk about some complex questions here
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The only bridge I've ever burned along this legacy I dance is the one that linked the cities of prosperity and chance Check out Technicapping for quantitative sport analysis |
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#4
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The concept of juice, like apple and orange? And how come if i win a bet for $10 my bookie only pays me $9.09. Ive called to complain about this alot...i think theyre ripping me off
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one thing ive learned is, never let anyone hooskow ya! -the great chili dog 2006 NBA Playoff Contest Champion |
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#5
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Thanks professor.
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#6
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It's about time someone explained this to me.
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#7
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This guy has been posting the same thing at other forums.
Why I axe!
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Fade them! |
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#8
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sportsbook offering -105 looking for business...
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#9
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solid solid article, learned a lot. leave him alone guys
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"No matter how bad it may get, just keep going, because you only fail when you give up." 2010-11 NBA 4-7-0 (-8.3 units) 2010 NBA Playoffs 8-4-1 (+8.1 units) |
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#10
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![]() Rich Allen <-----fake name? first and middle? or wishful-thinking adjective and first?
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2011-2012 NHL: 301-237-14, +3555 (2* plays are 17-14) 2011-2012 NBA 144-169-5 2012 MLB: 88-88-2, -1360 2011-2012 NFL: 128-91-7 2011-2012 NCAA Football: 126-96-7 2011 MLB: 486-437-18 2010 NFL: 108-67-3 2010 Cappers Mall Handicapper of the Year 2011 Cappers Mall Hall of Fame Inductee Winner, Western Playboy $20,000 Challenge (payment pending) Winner, Inaugural Hooisercatdaddy Invitational NCAA Basketball Handicapping Contest and Rewards Points Shindig |
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#11
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If you are laying -105 please explain how you have taken away the advantage of the sportsbook?
They are still going to bust you unless you can figure out a way to beat the market enough to overcome the juice. Please post what that is professor then I will be interested. |
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#12
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Isn't the bottom line about winning?
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#13
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you sir are brilliant bronze
dont let anyone tell you otherwise besides just win baby though you have to beat moves is the bottomline if you have -6 and the market corrects and is now -9 well that will aid significantly thats an exaggerated scenario but it illustrates it well same goes for MLs or any other way the market corrects
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The only bridge I've ever burned along this legacy I dance is the one that linked the cities of prosperity and chance Check out Technicapping for quantitative sport analysis Last edited by Romanowski; 09-19-2009 at 12:52 AM. |
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#14
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Here's somthing else to discuss. Say the line opens up in any sport, mainly Basketball or football at +1/-1, does the slight dog cover most of the time? Over the corse of the NBA last season i was backing that quite often and won.
Dog+1/-1Fav
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#15
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youd probably have to extract more data to maximize that angle thats more likely to be 52% at best by itself
and would depend on what shop as well if you think an opening line automatically gives the player an edge then youre not that bright
__________________
The only bridge I've ever burned along this legacy I dance is the one that linked the cities of prosperity and chance Check out Technicapping for quantitative sport analysis |
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