How Sportbooks Made $ Paying 57% Favorites

[Kramer]

A lot of gamblers will look at last years NFL hitting 57% Favorites and say it was an unusual year.
Some will claim sportsbooks had a rough year,
Others may claim books always get enough vig to balance out.
Some gamblers may not even beleive when they see numbers like
60-70% bets on a side and think the book is lying for some reason .

Now lets look at how the sportsbook is always ahead of the individual gambler
in terms of wagers and odds.
In an ideal game the sportsbook would like $ 10,000 as an example
wagered on a game with 10% vig and have half the bets
wagered on the favorite and half on the underdog.
When the game is over if it isn't a push they simply pay have the vig to the winners
and keep the other half.

Now look at another example :
Lets say $ 10,000 + vig is wagered on a game(10% vig)
$6,600 is wagered on a favorite to win $ 6,000
$ 4,400 is wagered on an underdog to win $4,000.

If the favorite wins , the bookie has $ 11,000 pays out $ 6,600
for a loss of $ 4, 400.
If the underdog wins the bookie has $ 11,000 pays out - $ 4,400
for a profit of $ 6,600.

Essentially what the book is doing is risking
$ 4,400 to make a profit of $ 6,600 .
This happens in each and every game.

If the bookie wins 4 games they'll make $ 6600 x 4 = $ 26,400
If they lose 6 they'll lose 6 x $4,400 $ 26,400
The bookie will break even when 40% of these bets win .
He's not interested in one lousy game , just an average of 100 , or 1,000
games that the underdog here wins 40% or more .


They make a profit at 45% or 50% !
And YES THEY MADE A PROFIT IF 57% OF THESE FAVORITE WON
LAST YEAR .

For you or I to make a profit of $ 6,600 we'd have to "wager"
$ 6,600 x 110 % or $7,260

Most gamblers are trying hard to win 55 -60% of their bets to make
a profit.
Here you clearly see the sportbook has a distinct advantage over
every individual gamebler.

In effect the sportsbook is wagering less than $ 100 to
wiin $ 100 simply when the underdog wins .

So next time you see an article that it was a rough year for the
sportsbook , you can just laugh about it.

[kahlmyishmael]

Originally Posted by Kramer who wrote in part...

They make a profit at 45% or 50% !

And YES THEY MADE A PROFIT IF 57% OF THESE FAVORITE WON
LAST YEAR .

For you or I to make a profit of $ 6,600 we'd have to "wager"$ 6,600 x 110 % or $7,260

Most gamblers are trying hard to win 55 -60% of their bets to make
a profit.

Here you clearly see the sportbook has a distinct advantage over
every individual gamebler.

In effect the sportsbook is wagering less than $ 100 to
wiin $ 100 simply when the underdog wins .

So next time you see an article that it was a rough year for the
sportsbook , you can just laugh about it.

Exactly!

The individual bettor who attempts to scale the surface of a 52.38% monolith in which all but 6% of the bettors successfully conquer..

..is asking enough of himself already.

The late Mort Olshan of The Gold Sheet posited that out of 100 NFL/NCAAFB betting events...

...factors totally unrelated to handicapping assert themselves(late 4th-qtr fumble on punt return, etc) in 50 of those events.

That places the bettor at 25w/25l and shows how Kramer's discussion of the bookie's "thought process" has locked them in a profit at 50%.

Now out of the remaining 50 games which lend themselves to the handicapper's skills at "picking"...the bettor to achieve 57% winners overall must pick 32 wins/18 Losses...

32/18= 64% winners in the remaining 50 games where factors outside the handicapper's ability to account for have not superimposed themselves in the betting event.

64% "winning proficiency" necessary to be a 57% winner!!!

The bookies can't help but "clean up" when the bettor is faced with such a high w/l % demand....

[Dr. Jack]

Good stuff Kramer