I won Week 3 @ SportsBetting.com Gridiron Pickem for shot at $1,000,000 ... NOW WHAT?

[Wes Fisher]

Ok,
I have been trying for the past 5 years & this weekend, I finally did it. I actually won Week 3 of SportsBetting.com's $1,000,000 Gridiron Pickem' Contest with a 15-1 record & 131 of a possible 136-pts. There are literally 1,000s of players in this thing weekly & I never won before, so I didn't even bother writing down my picks. I knew I did pretty well, but still didn't think anything of it until I got an e-mail from them last nite that said "Congrats on winning Week 3. $100 will be Deposited into your account shortly". The $100 is nice, but the big news is that I will now be playing with no more than 19 other players (20 in all) at the end of the season in their big $1,000,000 Playoff Tourney. Most of you who play on the net have seen links to this contest everywhere & are likely already familiar with it, but for those who aren't, the only way to make the final playoff tourney is to finish in the 'top 3' for the season or be one of the 17 weekly winners during the season.

I'm already nervous & I still have 14 weeks to go, but if you go 11-0 during the playoffs, the prize is a cool $1,000,000. Even if no one goes 11-0, the top 3 finishes among the 20 contestants get the following ...

1st) 50" Plasma TV
2nd) iPhone
3rd) Nintendo Wii

... so at worst, a 1-in-6.67 shot at some decent prizes.

Now I am already wondering what to do?

I think some of the best NFL cappers in the world are right here at this site & I was thinking of inviting the top 5-10 at season's end from the NFL Season Contest(s) to team up with me in the playoffs for a shot at a Million Bucks?

I am wide open to any suggestions guys? How would you approach this? Try it on your own? Put together a team? Is there a mathematical approach that might still show a profit even if I fail? what would you do?

I have 14 weeks to think of a gameplan & it's never to early to start thinking about it ... a shot like this rarely comes around in a lifetime.

Thanks!

[Romanowski]

post your plays for that contest every week in a thread please

[Jahred]

congrats...

..4%?

[NewGuy1]

So to get this straight.

You have to go 11-0 ats in the playoffs?

It's a nice opportunity, but that's next to impossible. The best hope to go
%65. Congrats on the opportunity though.

BTW I think you should make your own picks. This way the only one responsible for your success or failure is yourself. It wouldn't hurt to hear what other people say though.

[pittviper]

11-0 is tough, but not impossible by any means...

Congrats bud.. and GL

[Wes Fisher]

Thanks guys,
I know the odds are steep, but I think anyone would have a better chance of going 11-0 ATS than actually coming in 1st for the week out of like 3,500 people? Actually, I'm not sure about that ... lol

Speaking of odds of winning then, does anyone have a book that posts the payout for an 11-team parlay? Am I off base to assume that the parlay odds should be pretty close to the actual odds of pulling it off? For instance, if the parlay pays 200/1, does that give me a 1-in-200 shot?

If I know the odds for an 11-team NFL parlay, I can then figure out how much of a bet it would take to win $1M, so that would then lead me to at least assign some sort of monetary value to the opportunity at least.

[Wes Fisher]

Originally Posted by NewGuy1

So to get this straight.

You have to go 11-0 ats in the playoffs?

It's a nice opportunity, but that's next to impossible. The best hope to go
%65. Congrats on the opportunity though.

Actually, it does look like it's 11-0 ATS, but I'm not sure about the playoff rules. The weekly contest is straight up, but I imagine they would be crazy to let us pick S/U for that kind of $. Does anyone know their rules?

Also, as unlikely as 11-0 ATS is, I am still happy to say that a 50" Plasma TV would sure be nice too (not too keen on either of the other prizes) & for that it's just me vs. 19 others, I can't ask for much better odds than that.

[NewGuy1]

BetJam gives 450 to 1.

It would be different if you could pick 11 different events/games over an entire season. Here though you must pick 11 (sides I'm guessing) all within one tournament. I will say that it is possible out of maybe a few thousand people, but out of twenty unlikely.

A million bucks is a million bucks though. So good luck to you!!!!

[BigFratDaddy]

believe it or not i just capped off the playoffs and havea guarenteed 11-0 lock down plays for it. ill sell it to you for $100

[Wes Fisher]

Originally Posted by BigFratDaddy

believe it or not i just capped off the playoffs and havea guarenteed 11-0 lock down plays for it. ill sell it to you for $100

that's too freakin' funny ... why am I not surprised to see an offer like that? I guess I should prepare for a few of those. I can only thank Freakin' Christ that Cappers Mall doesn't disclose my phone # to the public or I'm sure every scamdicapper & his mother would be calling me with a hookup on their 'Guaranteed 11-0 Sweep'! ... lol, seriously ... too funny.

Originally Posted by NewGuy1

BetJam gives 450 to 1.

Interesting, well I broke out the calculator & at 450-1 odds, it would take a $2,222.22 bet to win $1M. That's a bet I could never afford to make in my lifetime, that's for sure. If the opportunity is worth $2,222, than I guess I essentially just won $100 & a $2,222.22 Free Play? Not bad.

I wonder if I could sell my shot on eBay for $1K? Let someone else make the picks for a shot at the $$$? any takers?

[nickwadden]

the odds of u gettin 11 right are 1 in about 200 million.

thats how many diff combos there are

[alby]

Originally Posted by nickwadden

the odds of u gettin 11 right are 1 in about 200 million.

thats how many diff combos there are

no, if given a 50% chance on each wager it would be 1 in 2048, so its definately possible.....gl

[Snowman]

I would bet that if you are picking straight up throughout the contest...the playoffs will be straight up...no spread...also. It would be tough as hell to go 11-0 straight up with no spread in the playoffs.

[Snowman]

Good luck by the way Wes

[Wes Fisher]

Originally Posted by nickwadden

the odds of u gettin 11 right are 1 in about 200 million.
thats how many diff combos there are

You would be almost right if it was 11 #s in a hat & you had to correctly predict the drawing of each # as it was pulled in order. The odds of correctly getting the 1st # right is 1-in-11 & the odds of then getting the 2nd # right from the remaining 10 then becomes 1-in-10, so the odds of picking both right in succession would be 11x10 or 1-in-110. Using that formula 11x10x9x8..., the correct odds would actually be 1:39,916,800

HOWEVER,
Using your thinking, the odds of getting the 1st game right is 1:11, but that only applies if Team #1 is playing aganst all the other 10 teams at once, which it isn't. The odds of winning the 1st game ATS on a coinflip would not be 1:11, but 1:2 or 50% & the odds of then also getting the 2nd game right ATS on a coinflip would be 1:4 or 25% based on the 4 possible outcomes (lose lose, win lose, lose win, win win). With no capping at all, the odds of flipping a coin & getting the 1st 2 games right are 1:4 ... slightly better than 1:110. I think alby's odds are probably more accurate & they can actually be improved even further by factoring in the handicapping aspect, which gives a decent capper a reasonable expectation of hitting 55% & a further advantage, although no way can my brain ever figure the formula out exactly. Any mathematicians here?

Anyway, one thing I know for sure is that I get to try. I will likely spend more hours in those weeks on each game than I have ever spent in my life, reading as much info from every local paper, team page, etc I can get my hands on. In the end, I'm sure I'll forge some very strong opinions of my own & hopefully the outcome will at least be a profitable betting run during the playoffs. Rest assured, I will start a Thread here at Cappers Mall documenting the attempt anyway for all to see.

Also, while I'm sure I'll be able to forge my own strong opinions on some games, I have no doubt I'll get stumped on others & will use the CM Forum to seek out advice when needed. Hopefully, I'll find some member(s) in that city who will have some insights, but regardless I am hoping that the occasion will serve to bring some valuable info to each week's card & we can all use that info for our benefit. That would be great for all, but of course the $1M for me would be nice too.

Thanks for the thoughts guys. Rest assured, I won't forget to bring this up again when the time comes. It should be fun & nervewracking.

W.