Interesting perspective for all of our line movement "experts"

[The Judge]

Over the last few weeks, Las Vegas and off-shore Bookmakers may have felt like it was déjà vu all over again as the point spread of select college football games were pounded relentlessly, often forcing a line move of 3-4 points.

The scenario, according to sources in Las Vegas and off-shore, is strangely similar to the one employed 20 years ago by the famous Computer Group, which won millions of dollars on college football and basketball, based on the selections generated by a computer program developed by a Westinghouse mathematician.

The way it worked in the mid 1980s was the computer would generate a point spread based on a variety of statistics and, if it deviated more than a point and a half from the Las Vegas line, the group would bet it.

The betting would start on Wednesday, often at a sports book such as Gary Austin’s on the Strip. The group knew that any number of "wise guys" or sharp bettors would notice the action at Austin’s and begin betting the play themselves, as well as spreading the word to their friends.

It wouldn’t be long before tout services picked up the play and the run was on. By Thursday or Friday, the point spread could have moved up to 5 points.

At that point, if the Computer Group believed the line could move no further, they began buying back the line (betting the other side) at the inflated price.

The result was to create a large and potentially lucrative "middle" that would cash both bets if the score landed within it.

What’s happening now, according to Bookmakers familiar with the process, is an "Asian group" of bettors has developed a computer program to identify several college football games that might have "soft" lines.

Then on Thursday morning, the group bets the lines heavily, often forcing the spread to move 3-4 points. The event has developed into a kind of "on-screen fiesta" as third-party bettors track the movement and bet as well.

For some reason, the Thursday morning time slot also coincides with the release time of selections from a tout known as Dr. Bob Sports.

His selections sometimes mirror the Asian group’s plays, but they aren’t always the same. For instance, last weekend Dr. Bob Sports’ picks included Baylor, Pittsburgh, South Florida, San Jose State, Central Michigan, Arkansas State and UCLA, according to one of his subscribers.

Teams that were targeted by the Asian group may have duplicated all or some of the above, but also included Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Navy, Kansas State and Florida.

Players will note that betting all of these games did not guarantee a winning day. In fact, only six of the above teams beat the spread at the most widely available lines.

But, as noted, moving the point spread is as much the goal as betting a soft line.

And for anyone familiar with sports betting in Nevada, that has always been the ultimate prize of the biggest sports bettors and betting syndicates – to create a huge point spread gap between the favorite and the underdog, a gap in which both bets could be cashed.

The previous weekend, several college football games were "steamed" or bet heavily by the Asian group, in an effort to create a large middle, as well as create "poor" numbers on parlay cards, which are usually printed well before the weekend.

Members of the group and its followers would then load up on teams whose parlay card prices were out-of-sync with the board spreads.

Here are a few of the games as well as their line moves from two weeks ago:

• Middle Tennessee State: Opened at +33 and bet down to 29½.

• Stanford: Opened at +33 and bet down to 29.

• Mississippi State: Opened 24½ and bet down to 20½.

• Colorado State: Opened 14 and bet up to 17.

• Hawaii: Opened 9½ and bet up to 13½.

Note that three of these games – Mississippi State, Colorado and Hawaii – had middle opportunities right up until the very end of the contest.

The groups pushing these numbers and shooting for middles rely less on handicapping skills than in the past. Instead, they operate more as "market analysts" or "fund managers," seeking better numbers on which to bet.

And it doesn’t take many middles to send them over the top. At worst, by cashing just one side of game, the group will lose 5 percent to the vigorish.

But when the number falls correctly, the payoffs are, as they say, sweet.

[ryhenry09]

Good read Judge. Thx

[The Judge]

I never questioned BDQH's phiosophy of middling games, That is indeed the best way to profit at sports wagering. Having said that, BD's approach was not at all similar to the method described above. He tried to identify early NFL line releases in the preseason in the hope of gaining an advantage the week the games were actually played. Very misguided in my opinion.

We miss you BigdaddyQH.

[bcbadgalz]

Originally Posted by The Judge

I never questioned BDQH's phiosophy of middling games, That is indeed the best way to profit at sports wagering. Having said that, BD's approach was not at all similar to the method described above. He tried to identify early NFL line releases in the preseason in the hope of gaining an advantage the week the games were actually played. Very misguided in my opinion.

We miss you BigdaddyQH.

Nice read judge. Thought I saw BDQH in here, not long ago ?

[jonnyblaze]

BDQH is a moron. To bet on individual games a month before the season starts is not capping- it's throwing darts with a blindfold on. Id take his action on that crap, fo sho.

[The Judge]

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

BDQH is a moron. To bet on individual games a month before the season starts is not capping- it's throwing darts with a blindfold on. Id take his action on that crap, fo sho.

While I find it hard to disagree with your initial statement JB, I have to qualify BD's "technique" by reminding everyone that if your bankroll is substantial, these types of speculative bets can indeed pay off from time to time. Our "friend" simply tried to convince the CM membership that his approach was the end-all of NFL futures.

No one in this forum is likely to have experienced a more negative experience with BD than I have but to be fair, he is right on my ass in the CM Eliminator Contest at Capping Contests. I am currently #2 (TideTodd is #1) and BD is breathing down my neck.

LINK

[jonnyblaze]

Ill agree with that.

Certianly there is little doubt that a long future/hedge type system, mathmatically, can be profitable. However, on a practical level, it is flawed. You need a lot of time and a lot of cash.

Never though the dude lacked knowledge, especially in CFB. Problem was everything else about him


GL in the contest, nice record.

[Henry09]

Originally Posted by The Judge

I never questioned BDQH's phiosophy of middling games, That is indeed the best way to profit at sports wagering. Having said that, BD's approach was not at all similar to the method described above. He tried to identify early NFL line releases in the preseason in the hope of gaining an advantage the week the games were actually played. Very misguided in my opinion.

We miss you BigdaddyQH.

Disagree not misguided imo.

You can spot some serious flaws in the market at that stage before the season starts based on what you believe may happen in the regular season.

People bet over/under on futures and this is a little like the same thing.

If you had of believed that Baltimore were going to be hot this year imagine the opportunity you could have had using this system.

[Henry09]

Nice article btw

[kahlmyishmael]

Originally Posted by The Judge

Over the last few weeks, Las Vegas and off-shore Bookmakers may have felt like it was déjà vu all over again as the point spread of select college football games were pounded relentlessly, often forcing a line move of 3-4 points.

The scenario, according to sources in Las Vegas and off-shore, is strangely similar to the one employed 20 years ago by the famous Computer Group, which won millions of dollars on college football and basketball, based on the selections generated by a computer program developed by a Westinghouse mathematician.

The way it worked in the mid 1980s was the computer would generate a point spread based on a variety of statistics and, if it deviated more than a point and a half from the Las Vegas line, the group would bet it.

The betting would start on Wednesday, often at a sports book such as Gary Austin’s on the Strip. The group knew that any number of "wise guys" or sharp bettors would notice the action at Austin’s and begin betting the play themselves, as well as spreading the word to their friends.

It wouldn’t be long before tout services picked up the play and the run was on. By Thursday or Friday, the point spread could have moved up to 5 points.

At that point, if the Computer Group believed the line could move no further, they began buying back the line (betting the other side) at the inflated price.

The result was to create a large and potentially lucrative "middle" that would cash both bets if the score landed within it.

What’s happening now, according to Bookmakers familiar with the process, is an "Asian group" of bettors has developed a computer program to identify several college football games that might have "soft" lines.

Then on Thursday morning, the group bets the lines heavily, often forcing the spread to move 3-4 points. The event has developed into a kind of "on-screen fiesta" as third-party bettors track the movement and bet as well.

For some reason, the Thursday morning time slot also coincides with the release time of selections from a tout known as Dr. Bob Sports.

His selections sometimes mirror the Asian group’s plays, but they aren’t always the same. For instance, last weekend Dr. Bob Sports’ picks included Baylor, Pittsburgh, South Florida, San Jose State, Central Michigan, Arkansas State and UCLA, according to one of his subscribers.

Teams that were targeted by the Asian group may have duplicated all or some of the above, but also included Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Navy, Kansas State and Florida.

Players will note that betting all of these games did not guarantee a winning day. In fact, only six of the above teams beat the spread at the most widely available lines.

But, as noted, moving the point spread is as much the goal as betting a soft line.

And for anyone familiar with sports betting in Nevada, that has always been the ultimate prize of the biggest sports bettors and betting syndicates – to create a huge point spread gap between the favorite and the underdog, a gap in which both bets could be cashed.

The previous weekend, several college football games were "steamed" or bet heavily by the Asian group, in an effort to create a large middle, as well as create "poor" numbers on parlay cards, which are usually printed well before the weekend.

Members of the group and its followers would then load up on teams whose parlay card prices were out-of-sync with the board spreads.

Here are a few of the games as well as their line moves from two weeks ago:

• Middle Tennessee State: Opened at +33 and bet down to 29½.

• Stanford: Opened at +33 and bet down to 29.

• Mississippi State: Opened 24½ and bet down to 20½.

• Colorado State: Opened 14 and bet up to 17.

• Hawaii: Opened 9½ and bet up to 13½.

Note that three of these games – Mississippi State, Colorado and Hawaii – had middle opportunities right up until the very end of the contest.

The groups pushing these numbers and shooting for middles rely less on handicapping skills than in the past. Instead, they operate more as "market analysts" or "fund managers," seeking better numbers on which to bet.

And it doesn’t take many middles to send them over the top. At worst, by cashing just one side of game, the group will lose 5 percent to the vigorish.

But when the number falls correctly, the payoffs are, as they say, sweet.

...and between 1987 and 1991 when Austin's book failed...there were groups in Vegas and Reno fighting each other to load up bets in the limited "temporal" window-of-opportunity...

..one group started buying 1/2 points on occasion to force the middle...they quickly abandoned it....

This was akin to the situation faced by "hole card" reading teams in Blackjack...

Different teams fighting for the same center base read in front of confused dealers/pit floormen who wondered why everyone wanted to sit at "center base"

The value quickly got eaten out of the previously "inefficient market"

[Will]

im going to join this yakuza betting group

[jonnyblaze]

Originally Posted by kahlmyishmael

...and between 1987 and 1991 when Austin's book failed...there were groups in Vegas and Reno fighting each other to load up bets in the limited "temporal" window-of-opportunity...

..one group started buying 1/2 points on occasion to force the middle...they quickly abandoned it....

This was akin to the situation faced by "hole card" reading teams in Blackjack...

Different teams fighting for the same center base read in front of confused dealers/pit floormen who wondered why everyone wanted to sit at "center base"

The value quickly got eaten out of the previously "inefficient market"

Exaggeration and misinterpretation of the truth here.

[cyhugogreen]

Looking for middles is like elementary school gambling. A waste of time but makes guys think they are on to something.