Jeff Sagarin is an Idiot!

[JSi922]

how can this dipshit have boise state ranked 12th????? he has 2 loss missouri and 2 loss arkansas over boise state. how does anyone allow this to happen????


its also kinda funny because his sagarin rankings on USA today have boise 7th yet on the bcs standings he puts them 12th. what a load of crock.

[cuse_man]

load of crock ?

[budfox]

Js is the best in the business hands I do agree he is out touch with boise but he is a gift from god with his rankings

[JSi922]

Originally Posted by budfox

Js is the best in the business hands I do agree he is out touch with boise but he is a gift from god with his rankings

i just dont understand that. it is 100% biased. if they give love to the SEC based on its past. it should take into consideration that boise state beat both TCU and oregon last year.


what other team in the country can say it beat the #1 and #4 teams in the country last year and returned all but 1 player on their roster and while the #1 and #4 teams all lost players from last year.

its just bullshit. whomever says it isnt biased is wrong.

America, i thought it was oppurtunity for the little guy. too bad the NCAA still lives in the 1800's. i bet if notre dame was 10-2 they would be #1 in the BCS standings somehow.


i just hope boise gets a shot at oregon in the BCS championship and massacres them.

defense wins championships and the #1 and #2 teams in the country have 0 defense

[uva3021]

oregon's defense is actually pretty good, better than auburn's IMO, but not as good as TCU or Boise's obv

[GFootsXtreme]

power rankings are just that, a raw statistically unbiased model
even the linesmakers never just use a raw number, they shape it based upon psychological factors but in the end that raw number is their key starting point

when you push a model to it's limit it often fails to capture the true result

The model cannot resolve having a team be as good as boise is from a conference that is as weak as boise's, with as many team boise plays having such weak records (sagarin looks at not only boise's schedule but links it to everybody else's schedule and thus the schedule strength of all of boise's opponents are factored in)

bottom line: the SOS factor in sagarin cannot resolve a team like boise being where it is. but the model works very well overall and sagarin is considered one of if not the very best at modeling sports power ratings

[JSi922]

Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme

power rankings are just that, a raw statistically unbiased model
even the linesmakers never just use a raw number, they shape it based upon psychological factors but in the end that raw number is their key starting point

when you push a model to it's limit it often fails to capture the true result

The model cannot resolve having a team be as good as boise is from a conference that is as weak as boise's, with as many team boise plays having such weak records (sagarin looks at not only boise's schedule but links it to everybody else's schedule and thus the schedule strength of all of boise's opponents are factored in)

bottom line: the SOS factor in sagarin cannot resolve a team like boise being where it is. but the model works very well overall and sagarin is considered one of if not the very best at modeling sports power ratings

does he factor in the WAC teams that have played SEC and Big Ten schools and have NOT gotten blown out on the road. then they go boise state home or away and get throttled. ask Wisconsin about san jose state and playing them at home.

None of it makes sense. they are using conference strength based on the past and especially when turnover on players huge, its a tough thing to do. they are using history but forgetting to use history where boise state beat oregon and TCU within the past year. and im pretty sure they beat oregon 2 times.

tell me this. say the SEC has a really bad year and loses all over the place in non-conference and alabama is undefeated. i guarantee you an undefeated alabama is #1 in the country regardless of how the SEC is doing. its called bias and the BCS and NCAA is full of it.

[GFootsXtreme]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2010 through results of 2010 NOVEMBER 13 SATURDAY
RATING and PREDICTOR are now unbiased and the ELO-CHESS is also unbiased now.


this output has one part: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY
games between the 245 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE
STRENGTH computations.


To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.


The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength
are its rank of schedule - (in parentheses) - and its
record versus teams in these rating's CURRENT top 10
and top 30 respectively.

For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all WELL CONNECTED, then
the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal
and the RATING, ELO-CHESS, and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
The teams are now WELL CONNECTED and so all three ratings are UNBIASED.

In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,
which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for
upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).


----------------------------------------------------

As he describes above, ELO does not take into account margin of victory, therefore, the measure used by the BCS does not care that Boise beat its opponents by 40 points every time. THAT is a very important thing to understand.

So what does ELO see with regards to Boise?

9-0 record, that puts them up pretty high
What about their SOS since margin of victory is not factored in?

Current records:
Idaho 4-6
Hawaii 7-3
La Tech 4-6
SJ State 1-9
Toledo 6-4
N Mex State 2-8
Oregon State 4-5
VTech 8-2
total: 36-42
if you went through all the opponents of these teams, you would have a very mediocre record of achievement

Alabama 8-2
Opponents:
Miss State 7-3
LSU 9-1
Tenn 4-6
Mississippi 4-6
South Car 7-3
Florida 6-4
Arkansas 8-2
Duke 3-7
Penn State 6-4
SJ State 1-9
total: 55-45
if you went through the record of these teams, playin many SEC teams they will undoubtedly have a better record for the ELO

but then look at the predictor ratings and you see they are about equal, when the boise blowouts are factored in

[Mendoza Line]

Originally Posted by cuse_man

load of crock ?

I didn't even know you could get it by the load.