Late Money Rules Day When Trailblazers Are On Road

[Dr. Jack]

Late Money Rules Day When Trailblazers Are On Road

by Kelso Sturgeon



Sometimes the winner of a sporting event is right there in black and white, right before our eyes, if we would but stop and think. Such is the case with many NBA teams this season.


The betting profile of each NBA team is something every bettor can have, either by keeping the records himself or by using free data published on many handicapping web sites. The value of having this information and using it is illustrated perfectly by the current betting profile of the Portland Trailblazers.


Please note I used the word "current" because what a team has done in its last 10-11 games usually is a far more accurate predictor of what it will do right now.


In looking at the Portland Trailblazers, winning bets jump off the pages.


Over their last 11 games, Portland has played eight of them on the road and "inside" information has prevailed.


For instance if you bet Portland early in the day in each of those eight games, you went a lackluster 4-4 against the number. However, if you bet them late in the day, within 15 or 20 minutes of tip off in those games, you went 6-2 against the number.


Portland is a classic case of late money-smart money-tipping one to the right side. The bottom line says someone out there knows far more about Portland than do most bettors and that someone surfaces late in the day to wager.


Waiting is something many bettors do not have the patience to do and it means they end up simply not taking all the edges that develop during the day-missing such things as the late injury reports for which the NBA has been famous since the beginning of time. It also means they miss later line moves that point to winners, such as Portland on the road.


In addition to this road profile of the Trailblazers, it also is important to note this is a team that has become a favorite betting tool for those who bet totals. Portland is right now an "under" team. It has played to the under in five of its last six games and stands 2-7-2 to the under in its last 11 outings.


While the road betting profile of Portland is quite revealing, it does not mean one should blindly take a stand late in the day on every single Trailblazer game, although some may wish to do that until the trend plays itself out and the road profile changes. It simply means that at this juncture in time, Portland is winning 75% of the time for bettors who are wagering on them late in the day.


It is the kind of edge for which we all search.


The Portland edge is on the road, but teams such as Washington offer a general profile than gives one some accurate guidance in how to handle their games. As for the Wizards, it would simply be a case of betting against them.


Wizards Covering 28.5% of Time...


The current betting profile of Washington is the same profile Washington has offered all season. This means what you see is what you get.


As of Tuesday of this week, Washington had played 21 games and had a won-lost record of 9-12. In the betting world, however, the profile was quite different.


In those 21 games, Washington offered the bettor this quite predictable picture.


The Wizards are 6-15 against the betting line in those games, which means they are playing far below the betting profile Bookmakers offer on them. Maybe it is the Michael Jordan factor? The percentages say Washington is has a straight up winning percentage of 42.8, its win percentage against the line is 28.5 percent.


There is an old rule of thumb in handicapping that says the first thing a bettor must decide is which team figures to be the outright winner of a game. In he case of Washington that 42.8% win percentage says the other side will more often than not play that role.


Now factor into that the reality that Washington covers the number just 28.5 percent of the time and you have a betting profile that is currently producing 71.5 percent winners when you bet against the Wizards.


Sometimes the Automatic Bet Is Proper...


It goes against the grain of most bettors to take an automatic stand on anything, and there is something to be said for that. However, there are occasions in the world of 11-to-10 that all the hard work and tedious gleaning of data and details will not produce winning percentages equal to what a betting profile says.


In the case of the Portland Trailblazers, one knows that at the current time the team is winning 76% of the time when one plays them late in the day, after the smart money has moved the number.


In the case of Washington, bettors currently going against the Wizards in every game have won 71.5 percent of the time over the last 11 games.


These are strong profiles and there is every reason to simply make Portland an automatic play on the road, waiting for the late number, and to go against Washington in every game it plays, period.


Betting profiles can change and those who wager need to reconfirm these strong trends each day to make certain they still exist.