Line movement - which do you prefer?

[Dr. Jack]

Say you like a game - which do you prefer to see or does it not matter?

The game open at -3 and immediately goes to 3.5 OR
The game open at -3, stays at 3 but 5 minutes before the game it goes to 3.5

Any thoughts on this?

[Romanowski]

late movement better

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

late movement better

I would probably agree but what about a line that moves all week and continues to move late - do you still have the same opinion or only in the scenario I pointed out above?

[Romanowski]

minnesota/kent st total keeps moving

at what point do you go reverse steam?

these are good questions

[Dr. Jack]

I guess that is where the whole public debate comes in?

For me - I am not sure about going reverse steam but I prefer to lay off those types of situations

[Romanowski]

I think, and its only my opinion ....lol and not in all cases

but...the public moves the line after the opener is released

the "sharps" or bigger players will play an opener if they see value

value meaning the line will move as they are gauging who the public will like

then may play the other side closer to game time for a scalp or a number of other scenarios, which have no bearing on the outcome of the game

since line movement can mean so many things, I find it hard to use in wagering except in a few circumstances

[dave nz]

It depends IMO and it all comes back to what u see is behind the line move.

To add something else in the MLB and NHL often it is a bad sign to see the line on the team u like blow right out especially when the money is not too one sided (I'm saying this for people new to following line moves).

[GFootsXtreme]

I don't take a lot of stock in either move, I think it's too hard to discern as the outcomes are not consistent based on those moves.

IMO, watching both college and pro hoops, I saw one consistent trend about line movement.

If a team was favored by 2 points or less, and the line consistently moved the other way, even frequently favoring the other team, the direction of the line movement absoultely tells the winner

I believe I may have posted about that during college hoops but who cares I guess really? But in the college tourney it happened at least 3 times and every one came out as expected.

Rarily is an NBA line that low but when it is I see the same thing.

For whatever reason, that is the only line movement I have witnessed that I think holds true across sports. Football has this too - 1.5 pt favorite turns to a 2 point dog and gets crushed.

Any thoughts on this? am I offbase?

[GFootsXtreme]

roman has a great point too about when to go in reverse, i'm too much of a wimp to do it usually but that seems a smart play frequently

[upinya83]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

I think, and its only my opinion ....lol and not in all cases

but...the public moves the line after the opener is released

the "sharps" or bigger players will play an opener if they see value

value meaning the line will move as they are gauging who the public will like

then may play the other side closer to game time for a scalp or a number of other scenarios, which have no bearing on the outcome of the game

since line movement can mean so many things, I find it hard to use in wagering except in a few circumstances

good points here, also to add i think it depends on the teams and what the line it. If a "sharp" or large player likes a favorite, usually i think they jump on it early, because the public will make the line worse as betting goes on. Opposite holds true for a dog, let the public bet the line up and jump on it late.

[BigdaddyQH]

The Wiseguys play the lines before they hit the public, so the lines are already adjusted for their play. I play either very early, or very late. I develop my own line, compare it to the opener, and determine if that is the time to make a move or not. If not, I'll wait until the last hour to make my decision. None of these rules apply to future wagers, which I will make as early as July, if the line is right. As far as movement goes, you must follow it every 5 minutes to see if one big bettor dumped a lot on a game, or many small bettors have bandwagoned the game. A movement of 1 to 2 points indicates a big wager. a 1/2 point movement indicates a bandwagon movement. I can follow the movement up to the minute with a 1-2 minute delay from my home, which really helps.