THE MAYHEM: Fear Kills in the NFL

[Dr. Jack]

THE MAYHEM: Fear Kills in the NFL

49ers stung by passive playcalling and suffer loss that could crush their playoff aspirations

Nov. 27, 2006

By Adrian Brijbassi
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Mike Nolan didn't think about it. He made the decision even before he knew the extent of the situation. The good book, otherwise known as the coaches' play sheet, told him he didn't have to waste any brain cells.

The result: An inexperienced coach saw his team lose by a field goal because of a playcalling decision made out of fear. While the lesson for the 49ers' Nolan may be "Have some guts next time," the price of that education is possibly the playoffs.

San Francisco lost 20-17 in St. Louis when Marc Bulger hit Kevin Curtis in the end zone on a 5-yard out pattern with 29 seconds remaining. The 49ers, who had looked so good a week ago in beating Seattle, dropped to 5-6 (6-5 against the spread) and need to go 4-1 to have a hope of reaching the postseason. The play that cost them the victory was actually one that put points on the board - a field goal that came nearly four minutes prior to the Curtis touchdown.

On fourth-and-an-inch from the Rams' 7, Nolan opted to kick instead of run a quarterback sneak or another low-risk play to pick up the first down. Why not go for it? Simple answer: The coach was too frightened to veer from convention. When you're on the road, don't go for it. When you're ahead, play conservative. Risk is only for when you're desperate. Sometimes, that good book that details as many positions and actions to take as the Kama Sutra, needs to be tossed in favor of instinct, gut emotion.
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For Nolan, that fourth-and-1 was an occasion when he had to envision the possibilities of going for it and making it, not the opposite. The ball was so close to the marker that its nose actually touched the broad, striped plate above the tip of the yardstick. Bill Parcells wouldn't have hesitated, Bill Belichick either. Bill Walsh would've run a play-action pass.

Nolan, though, is a second-year coach a long way from being billed as a big-time sideline general. Rather than be aggressive against a defense that surrendered 171 rushing yards, he trotted out Joe Nedney. With a 24-yard boot, Nedney put the Niners up 17-13 and in position to lose.

"I thought about it at the time, run it hard, but we're on the road," Nolan said to the media after the game about his decision to play it by the book. "With the three points, we go up by four and make it a touchdown game for them. I wouldn't change anything."

Hard to believe. A first down in that situation probably leads to the 49ers moving over .500 and possibly into first place in the NFC West.

While quarterback Alex Smith didn't blame the coaching staff for not going for it, he said a conversion would've made the difference in the outcome. Citing the third-down run by Michael Robinson that fell just short of the stick, Smith said, "If we get a first down there, it is probably over. You're talking a few more minutes off the clock. Then maybe they're burning more timeouts and obviously if we got the touchdown, we're up by eight points and it changes the game.''

It changes the season, too. With so many tight battles for playoff spots, every call is as important as the execution on the field. What coaches need to ask themselves is, Do I want to lose playing by the book or aggressively chase victory? The leaders who are sure of themselves know what to do. The ones who haven't been here before play scared and it hurts.

Whether he says so or not, the fact is Nolan will do it differently next time. Experience teaches you to change. So does being home in January.
Random Thoughts from Week 12 in the NFL

* In Buffalo, the Jacksonville Jaguars - the most perplexing team in the NFL - opted for a short kickoff with 28 seconds to play, allowing the Bills to start the final possession of the game at their own 40. Two plays later, the Bills were in field-goal territory. They ran a third play to position the ball for Rian Lindell, who delivered a 42-yard kick through the uprights that ended the contest with the Bills on top 27-24. The Jaguars (6-5 SU and ATS) were left searching for reasons to believe the odds of them making the postseason hadn't taken a serious hit.
* The Bills were one of four home underdogs to win outright. The others: Kansas City, Washington and Tennessee.
* Michael Vick's dirty bird in New Orleans proves he's in the midst of the steepest in-season decline since the Minnesota Vikings decided to rent a boat. Vick has fallen from MVP candidate to loser in a matter of three weeks.
* The happiest team on Sunday may have been the Dallas Cowboys, who moved into first place in the NFC East when the Giants imploded in Tennessee. The teams meet at Giants Stadium Sunday with Tony Romo being anointed the best quarterback in the NFC and Eli Manning continuing to prove he didn't get the brains in the family.

NBA: Carmelo Arrives

It's taken a little while, but Carmelo Anthony can now truly join LeBron James and Dwyane Wade as the third member of the NBA's next generation of superstars. Melo had been an inconsistent player since entering the league in 2003 with James and Wade. He averaged 21 points in his rookie year, helping turn the Nuggets into a competitive team. But his defensive play has been questioned, as has his ability to be a force each night.
Carmelo Anthony has been on a roll for the Nuggets.Carmelo Anthony leads the NBA with an average of 31.1 points per game. (AI Wire photo)

This season, he's shown more maturity and patience. The results have been spectacular. Anthony's 31.1 scoring average leads the league and he's made the Nuggets (8-4 straight up and against the spread) the highest scoring team in the NBA.

Denver has won five straight heading into Tuesday's matchup with Memphis. In Sunday's 103-88 win over the Clippers, Anthony eclipsed the 30-point plateau for the ninth time in 12 games as he threw down 33.

Another thing about Melo, he's a nice kid. When asked recently about being on the cover of an NBA video game, he said, "I don't know why they want me for the cover. I really don't know what people see in me. I sit back and wonder sometimes, why me, why do they like me?"

Not quite Allen Iverson, is it?

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