Money Line Odds

[Kramer]

Here's a little chart to use for calculating whether to use a money line wager on a bet for a game :

MONEYLINE...LOSS...WIN...WIN%REQUIRED...

-$320.........-$320...100...76.19
-$300.........-$300...100...75.00
-$280.........-$280...100...73.68
-$270.........-$270...100...72.97
-$260.........-$260...100...72.22
-$250.........-$250...100...71.43
-$240.........-$240...100...70.50
-$230.........-$230...100...69.70
-$220.........-$220...100...68.75
-$210.........-$210...100...67.74
-$200.........-$200...100...66.67
-$180.........-$180...100...64.29
-$170.........-$170...100...62.96
-$160.........-$160...100...61.54
-$150.........-$150...100....60.00
-$140.........-$140...100...58.33
-$130.........-$130...100...56.52
-$120.........-$120...100...54.55
-$110.........-$100...100...52.38
-$100.........-$100...100...50.00
+$105.........-$100...105...48.78
+$110.........-$100...110...47.62
+$120.........-$100...120...45.45
+$130.........-$100...130...43.48
+$140.........-$100...140...41.67
+$150.........-$100...150...40.00
+$160.........-$100...160...38.46
+$170.........-$100...170...37.40
+$180.........-$100...180...35.71
+$200.........-$100...200...33.33
+$210.........-$100...210...32.26
+$220.........-$100...220...31.25
+$250.........-$100...250...28.57
+$280.........-$100...280...26.32
+$300.........-$100...300...25.00

Why is this table important ?

Let's say you've calculated a game where a favored team has a
60% chance of winning ...
Well if the moneyoline on that particular game is -$ 160 you would pass andd move on to the next one because you need to make
61.54% of -$160 moneyline bets just to break even ,

Alternatively , if you see an underdog with a + $300 moneyline that you think has a 30% chance of winning you should bet it , but if that underdog only has a 10% chance in your mind then you should pass ...

*** Note the win% required is the win% just to brak even not taking into consideration any vig when placing your bet ***

[pats3peat]

thank you kramer

[Romanowski]

[TigerCat_Tania]

Some might think this is a stupid question, but how do you calculate the percent... I'm always confuzzled on this...

[Romanowski]

TCT....the potential winning percentage is a matter of opinion, you can obviously use your capping for that, but no "calculating" is possible

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by TigerCat_Tania

Some might think this is a stupid question, but how do you calculate the percent... I'm always confuzzled on this...

Its actually a good question ...

I only cap NFL so I can't answer any other sports ,
I applaud those that find the time to do more ...

You've heard the saying on any given Sunday?

Well truth is if you check back to when NFL betting season began ,
never has there ever been a week where all favorites have won,
or all underdogs have won.

Its always somewhere in the middle

[TigerCat_Tania]

is 'public percent' something to consider for this? because when you say matter of opinion that's kinda how I read what you meant...

[Romanowski]

with each ML, in order to simply break even .....
take this for example .-$320$320...100...76.19, so when laying -320 juice over 100 plays, you must hit 77 to make a profit,and it will be minimal

I thought your question was how would one calculate if this particular team would win 77% of the time and whether its smart to lay that kind of juice. I personally dont lay anything higher than -200 on a given play

[TigerCat_Tania]

ya, Ok I get it now... i think... LOL... it's kind of for LT profit right?

[skippy]

Originally Posted by TigerCat_Tania

Some might think this is a stupid question, but how do you calculate the percent... I'm always confuzzled on this...

If all things are equal when 2 teams go head to head, then each team has a 50% chance of winning.

Since things are NOT equal, then you factor those things in.
Such as:
1) HOME team (conversely ROAD team)
2) Injuries (suspensions, trades, etc etc)
3) Prolong road trip
4) Recent past performance over the last 5 games (or any arbitrary number of games but keep in mind RECENT)
5) etc

[gianfranco]

Nice job with that chart.......Kramer

very useful.

[TigerCat_Tania]

ok so Skippy... lets say two teams have equal standings and very comparitive W/L record... and no issues that are known... would the advantage go to the home team if they are a ML fav or would you put money on the dog if they are the visitor?

[Romanowski]

^matter of opinion and depends on isolated case IMO....Tania

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

^matter of opinion and depends on isolated case IMO....Tania

I agree ...

Its still a very broad question ...

you have to dig deeper than standings such as strenght of schedules ,
who's there upcoming opponents ...

(i.e. if San Diego is playing Miami and then playing the Colts they may play down Miami looking ahead)

[TigerCat_Tania]

Thanks Roman and Kramer... so perhaps last 5 game performance and only one forth-coming match is good enough to evaluate right?

How often is performace already factored into an odd?
And when can one start to see past performance factored into the odd as some lines are openned in advance for some games, I understand that football may not fit into this question... because judging on when performance is factored in might be a judgement in how sharp money differs from public...