Moneyline or Points?

[weazel079]

I remember a discussion on this a few years back but couldn't find it. I like a couple dogs tomorrow that are getting less than a field goal (Maryland, VTech). Is there are more value to take the a dog ATS when the line is less than +3, or just playing the moneyline?

Thanks

[Bisket]

think it's better to take the points


let's say average moneyline for less than 3 pts is +125

your team wins outright: extra 25 bucks


your team covers but doesnt win: 200 dollar swing (instead of +100 you are -100)

you would need that extra 25 bucks 8 times to cover the -200 in the long run

however, if your team doesnt win or cover, you do save 10 bucks since you risked 100 instead of 110. So I would say the "break even" in this comparison would be to have your less than +3 moneyline to hit about 7 times more often in the long-run