My NFL Handicapping Checklist :

[Kramer]

My NFL Handicapping Checklist
By Kramer :
.
Pressure is something you feel when you don’t know what you’re doing - Peyton Manning

The Kramer Handicapping Rules :
Here’s my rules like em., don’t like em ,use em , ignore them
A look at week 7 :

#1 - The quarterback is no.1
sometimes they lose but 80% of time they win.
Last week :Tamp beat Cinci
N.O. beat Phil
Ten Beat Wash,etc
But generally 70-80% of time it works

So #2 is Upsets Happen - predicting them is an art

# 3 : “ Sandwhich games”
These are non div , non conf games that don’t matter to some teams teams

#4 is running game : Whoever runs the game more controls the clok and will win 75% of games
-who has poor rushing defence ?

#5 - Look ahead games - They happen all the time
This week :Is Denver looking ahead to the Colts for a flat game against
Browns ? Perhaps so scratch Denver game
Is Carolina Looking ahead to Sunday night prime time game with Dallas?
Perhaps , so scratch game

Jacksonville and the Colts play each other next week.
Both teams will want the win this week.
Is Tampa likely to beat 2 good teams?
Play on Philly ...

# 6 : Its only week 7 but playoff implications are approaching :
The Patriots don’t want their lead to slip away :
Play on rested Patriots
Eagles have 2 games before bye -
They’ll want win to keep up division lead - play on\
Steelers don’t need a div title , wildcard will do - pass
Denver has comfy lead ,Colts next week
Chargers have comfy lead - pass
Chiefs feel season slipping away : Wild card possibility :
Underdog shot ?
Jaguars don’t want to lose too much ground - Tease down?
#7 - spread matters teams only care about the win
Generally stay away from double digits

# 8 - some teams can’t do it twice ( i.e. look at history win twice in a row , or lose twice in a row)

# 9 : look at 3rd down conversions , sacks , first downs ,penalties

# 10 : momentum - who has it who doesn’t (1 game doesn’t count 2 or more)

# 11 - who’s good on road who isn’t : : Travel matters more to some teams
(Here’s a hint Cardinals are 0-8 ats since 2003 ,
Colts are 7-1-1 vs afc south foes since last yr)
Steelers lost first two away games this year but are 38-21-4 since 1999
( did you know that?)
Vikings are 5-10 ats last 15 road games

#12 - don’t get crazy - I see it happen every week
Last week underdogs win - this week people thinking underdogs -
Why you think vegas has so many home underdogs?
My opinion is favorite will dominate
Week 1 underdogs , week 2 favorites win
Week after favorites win people think favorites then underdogs win
When 1pm game underdogs win , people think underdogs,
then 4pm favorites win...

#13) - who’s grumbling :
Dennis Green Whined a lot - Is Arizona money line worth a shot ?

# 14 ) Contracts : Who’s in the last year of their contracts and
approaching the 2nd half of their season needing to show the league their worth some $$$$ ?

# 15 ) Breakout Games : Who’s in a slump and due for a breakout game ?
(I.E. Who’s Hot and Who’S Not)

#16 : Remaining Strength of Schedule -
Schedules Change as season changes , home schedule , road schedule
- how does this week compare :
I.E. Arizona’s is rather comfy right now ...
#17 :
All players are professional athletes and brought up all their lives to win .
That’s their job .
They get paid to win.
You or I make $ 40,50,70k a yr,
these guys make $250,000 min , many millions to play 16 games a year so remember that rule .

[Davydave]

You gotta listen to the little man...

[Klazerman]

Nice list Kramer
Klaze
Good points

[GFootsXtreme]

thank you Kramer, NFL is one sport that I have never seen anyone post their methods and/or trends to follow and watch. very kind and much appreciated

i'm wondering if and how you factor emotion into a game...it's importance in revenge and or to the home crowd...

[Kramer]

Don't follow trends much as coaches change,
free agency,etc
Emotion :
Ask T.O,
Moss,Green ...
All I can Say

But as an example
Monday night loser
how have they done this year ?

[Kramer]

Rule # 18 Follows rule # 2 and Rule # 17
and GFoots point :
How do you factor into "emotion / revenge/prior loss and home crowd?"

You can put all the stats together but what "weight" do you give to an underdog who's all of a sudden going to " Show up"
on any given sunday?
That's why they play the games on the field,
and not on paper ...

The biggest "loser"
is 5-1 this year

[SUPERSY8]

That's a thorough list.

I would trade it all just for a line to the bell-man's desk or front-desk of the hotel of the visiting team.

If I know how many hookers and how late the players went to bed the day before the game, then I'll know who to bet!