My Study of the 2.5 Line...

[Kramer]

Here's my study of the 2.5 line


Why is a line plus or minus 2.5 and not 3 or 3.5?
My theory is when a gambler sees a 2.5 line either way they "MAY" think
the Home Underdog, or the underdog is the way to go to get an edge on the sportsbook or the public.
So is this correct??
Well here's what happened in the last three years .

Last year in 2005 , there were 15 games with a 2.5 line either +2.5 or -2.5
The results were as follows :
10 favorites covering the spread , 5 underdogs covering the spread.
Of the 10 favorites 6 were road favorites , 4 were home favorites.
Of the 5 underdogs 2 were home underdogs , 3 were road underdogs.
Thus if you bet "ALL" home underdogs in this line range you would have had a disasterous year.

In 2004 the range of favorites to underdogs were more "normal".
17 games in total , 8 favorites , 9 underdogs.
Four road favorites , four home favorites
Of the underdogs , 6 were home underdogs , three were road underdogs.
A bettor year for home underdogs , but still a disaterous year.

In 2003 there were again 17 games of this line.
9 favorites and 8 underdogs.
Of the favorites , four were road favorites , five were home favorites
Of the underdogs Four were home underdogs , four were road underdogs.

In conclusion ,
some gamblers may quickly jump the gun in thinking a line of 2.5 is for the home underdog or the underdog .
but in three years it clearly has no merit.

You still have to cap the game and figure out who the better team is,
and sometimes who is going to show up and who isn't ...

A line of - 2.5 "roughly" means the favorite has a 55% chance of winning the game outright.
If you think the underdog has a chance ( maybe the road underdog)
the moneyline may be worth a shot ...

[pittviper]

nice post... I like playing +2.5 home underdogs on the ML, last year was an exception.. but home dogs are usually money in the NFL..

GL this season man.
PV

[Bobtheicon]

Good info as usual Kramer.
The way I see it, in an evenly matched NFL game, the home team has a 3 point advantage. So, the linesmaker is basically telling you that he thinks the road team is the stronger team when he posts a 2.5 line and is trying to bait action on the homies if they are the -2.5.

Statistically, this may not play out, but that's what it looks like to me...

[Will]

Intresting post Kramer. Thanks

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Bobtheicon

Good info as usual Kramer.
The way I see it, in an evenly matched NFL game, the home team has a 3 point advantage. So, the linesmaker is basically telling you that he thinks the road team is the stronger team when he posts a 2.5 line and is trying to bait action on the homies if they are the -2.5.

Statistically, this may not play out, but that's what it looks like to me...

I think a lot of people think this as well.