NBA betting tips

[JoeyOh]

Basketball generally produces a lower win percentage for books. There are a few reasons for this. First, players play fewer teasers in basketball than in football. Teasers retain a higher percentage for the house than do straights, so fewer teasers means a slightly lower hold percentage. The theory is that there is more teaser action in football because of key numbers.

Teasing the NY Giants from –8 to –2 crosses the key numbers of 7, 6, 4 and 3 and should greatly increase the chance of winning that bet. On the other hand, the impact of teasing the NY Knicks from –7 to –3 is more difficult to measure, as there are no key numbers crossed in that play.

Second, there are more games so any one upset is less likely to impact the bottom line as much as any one football game. Imagine what a Monday Night Football game upset would do for the numbers. It would take 10-12 basketball upsets during the week to have the same positive effect on the bottom line.

Key numbers are also a factor in this split. Moving the line from –2.5 to –3 to –3.5 to –4 would never be done in football, but isn’t uncommon in basketball. If the favorite wins by 3, the book can be middled. If the favorite wins by 4, the book can be sided. As a result of the more frequent line moves, sides and middles are slightly more common, and the House holds a slightly lower percentage. (Some people do think that 4 and 5 can be considered key numbers in basketball but I will reserve this argument for another column).