NBA Playoffs and other Sports - ZiG Zag Theory

[TigerCat_Tania]

Think like a bookie: NBA playoffs

By Stephen Nover
Thu, Apr 20, 2006

The NBA playoffs will be upon us come Saturday, and I’m not sure what’s better:

That some teams will start trying again, or we won’t be subject to the Portland Trail Blazers and New York Knicks anymore.

Thank goodness.

One thing’s for certain, though. Making odds and handicapping the playoffs are different than doing it during the regular season.

“It’s completely different,” professional gambler Dave Malinsky said. “In a way, you can say it’s the purest form of handicapping. You sit and watch the game. The oddsmakers and betting public sit and watch the same game.

“Now you’re one-on-one to decide what happens next. It’s not necessarily all about statistics, trends or anything else. You can see things that don’t show up, or can’t be explained in a box score.

“So it becomes a case of who can read the game better, or who can interpret the game better. The problem is to be successful, you do have to watch. Sometimes there’s nothing more brutal than to watch pro basketball.”

Amen.

But it could be worse. You could have to watch a soccer game instead.

Experienced NBA bettors know some of the tweaks and twists linemakers do for the postseason. There aren’t any big secrets.

“You’re going to favor the home team pretty good,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Home court is worth about four points during the regular season, Seba said. Expect that number to be jacked up a couple of points in the playoffs.

Teams who fall into must-win spots usually get shaded up. Oddsmakers are well aware of the popular zig-zag theory, which prompts bettors to play on the team seeking revenge and supposedly “due” to win.

The question is how many points are we talking about in these spots?

“It depends on the team in the must-win situation,” Seba said. “If it’s a team that is inferior, you might not put as much weight on it as you would if the better team was in a must-win situation.

“It really depends on the matchup. You can’t just say we’re going to jack it up two points on the must-win team. We may not do anything with it, or we may adjust it 3 or 3 ½ points. It all depends.”

Depends on what?

“We’re always thinking about what the general public is going to do,” Seba said.

This isn’t to discount the wise guys. They’re always foremost in the minds of the linesmaker.

“You’re making the lines more for the sharps, especially in the first round,” Seba said. “Your squares get involved in the later rounds.”

Linesmakers don’t put much stock in coaching when it comes to the NBA compared to college basketball. Malinsky, though, believes coaching is worth something in the playoffs.

“Absolutely,” he said. “The Spurs had an awful time playing back-to-back nights. Everybody says they have older players, so they get tired. What it is, though, is when (Spurs Coach) Gregg Popovich has a chance to prepare a game plan for an opponent, he’s dynamite.

“It’s when they play back-to-back that Popovich doesn’t have a chance to do those game breakdowns.”

You have to wonder about Avery Johnson and his Dallas Mavericks. Johnson doesn’t have the coaching experience of Popovich and some others.

“There’s not much experience yet and Dallas also doesn’t have that great playoff defense,” Malinsky said.

Over/under totals differ, too, in the playoffs.

“You tend to go lower on the totals,” Seba said. “How much lower depends on the matchup. If you have Phoenix playing the Lakers, you’re not going to go a lot lower (than normal). You pretty much make a number like you would during the regular season because they’re both up-tempo teams.

“But if you have a Detroit-New Jersey matchup, you would make that total at least five points lower than you would during the regular season because that’s more of a defensive matchup.”

It’s easy to think of the pointspread in terms of which side is favored and by how much. Making a total can be harder. When it comes to the playoffs, oddsmakers can be influenced by the over/under when making a number.

“You might not make it (the side) higher on a lower total game,” Seba explained. “If you have a total of, let’s say 175, you’re going to make the home team a little higher – maybe a point – than you would in the regular season.

“But if you have a total of say 210, then you might make the home team 1 ½ or 2 points higher just because of the number of points that are going to be scored.”

[TigerCat_Tania]

NBA Playoffs: The Zigzag Theory
Revisited May 8 2004

Let’s talk about zigzags. No, that’s not some ski slope maneuver. Nor is it someone who says one thing and then does another. Sports bettors may be familiar with zigzagging when it comes to handicapping the NBA playoffs.

One rule many bettors keep in mind during the playoffs is that teams that lose a game and play poorly may look very different the next game. That is, they can get that bad game out of their system, make adjustments, and come back playing very well the next game. The team that plays that poor game is often getting points the next game, too, which is another plus. Normally this happens with visiting teams playing Game One on the road, for instance, and they lose, but could zigzag the next game and get the money, or maybe even a straight up win.

Most Game One visiting teams are underdogs, which was the case in the first round of this year’s NBA playoffs. In fact, almost all the visitors were big dogs in Game One. Remember that there’s more pressure on the home team to give a strong performance in the first game as they’ve worked hard all season to get that home court advantage, and they don’t want to blow it in the first game. That doesn’t just go for the first round of the playoffs, but all the rounds. And the visiting team is not thinking about getting a sweep in the first two games, but simply salvaging a split, which is a big edge for the visitors and a downer for the home team.

What’s interesting about this year’s playoffs is that the zigzag theory hasn’t come into play much, with the exception of the Bucks, who stole Game 2 at Detroit as a big dog. One thing I look for when assessing whether to utilize the zigzag theory is: Does the dog play good defense? This partly explains why the home favorites did so well recently. Most of the visiting teams were poor defensively, and some were just plain awful, like the Mavericks, Celtics, Nuggets and Knicks. The Mavs did manage to get the cover in Game 2 against Sacramento, though just barely.

Strong defensive teams have a big edge in the postseason. Teams that rely on a breakneck offensive pace to try and defeat opponents (Dallas, Milwaukee, Denver) are at a disadvantage for a couple of reasons. First, there are some nights when the outside shooting isn’t there, even for great offensive teams. Just look at Game Two of the Kings vs. Mavericks series, where both teams shot under 38%. It really wasn’t great defense but either side, it was simply a lot of open outside shots didn’t go down. And that happens. When that happens, poor defensive teams don’t have anything to fall back on to try and keep them in the game. This is what happened to the Celtics, Knicks and Nuggets in the first two games.

Secondly, you win championships in all sports with defense, not offense. When Shaq and Kobe first came up with the Lakers, they continually had sensational, and almost unstoppable, offensive teams, but they kept flaming out in the playoffs. The reason was that they were a poor defensive team under coaches Del Harris and Kurt Rambis. It wasn’t until Phil Jackson arrived to teach the value of defense that the Lakers took off, winning three straight titles.

It was no coincidence that two of the top three defensive teams in the NBA met in the Finals last season (the Spurs and Nets), while strong offensive teams like the Kings, Lakers, Mavericks went out early. Who won college football’s national championship? Oklahoma’s great offense got shut down by LSU’s powerful defense. The Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls with defense leading the way, even shutting down the talented Rams’ offense three years ago. And who can forget Tampa Bay’s No. 1 defense smacking the No. 1 Raiders’ offense just over a year ago? The Spurs have won two NBA titles the last five years with defense as the focal point of the team, not offense.

The zigzag theory hasn’t played out well in the first round of the playoffs, but don’t discard it yet, either. With stronger defensive teams likely advancing, it’s something to keep an eye on in the next few rounds.

[TigerCat_Tania]

Interesting articles and both from two different play off years 2004 and this year 2006

[skippy]

Zig Zags are great for rolling, not necessarily cigarette tobacco.

[TigerCat_Tania]

bump...

[Bobtheicon]

I prefer EZ Wider 1.25 pure hemp!!