NFL BETTING: The Consistently Inconsistent

[Dr. Jack]

NFL BETTING: The Consistently Inconsistent

During a season when even the front-runners can't be trusted, which teams can bettors turn to?

Nov. 27, 2006

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

If the second half of the NFL season is when they separate the mice from the men, then all bettors can ask for is an exterminator, because there are a whole lot of vermin running around the league right now.

Week 12 featured so many choke jobs, there might have been more Heimlich maneuvers completed than first downs. Of course, whether it was Carolina laying an egg in Washington, Jacksonville blowing it in Buffalo, or Chicago taking what New England gave them and giving it right back, no team blew it bigger than the New York Giants.

Leading 21-0 in the fourth quarter, the Giants appeared on their way to a convincing victory over Tennessee. That is, until Vince Young stepped it up and Eli Manning threw it up (twice, in fact). Twenty-four unanswered Titans points later and the G-Men, now losers of three straight, were sent slinking off the field to cower from the ravenous Gotham media.

What a turnaround since Oct. 23, the date the Giants marched into Dallas and knocked off the Cowboys 36-22 on Monday night. Remember that game? Drew Bledsoe does. He was sacked four times in the first half and forced to give way to Tony Romo. Now, it's Romo and the red-hot Cowboys who are doing the marching, and they're doing it into New York this Sunday as 3.5-point favorites over their reeling rivals.

Decisions, decisions.

Do bettors play the momentum angle? It's tempting. The Giants are showing all the signs of a team on the verge of implosion, if they haven't done so already. Players criticizing the head coach. A quarterback that's thrown seven interceptions in his last four games. A patchwork defense that let a rookie with one of the lowest completion percentages in football pick it apart like a JV team in the prevent. And now they're supposed to stop Romo, the league's highest-rated passer (110.8)? Not likely.

Or, is it? We're talking about the Giants as home underdogs here. Four weeks ago, you would've bet the house with the family in it. Also consider that Dallas hasn't beaten the Giants in New Jersey since 2003. And if there was ever a team that will be looking to make amends - while staying in the playoff hunt at the same time - it's Tom Coughlin's squad.

Or, maybe the answer is to take a pass altogether and put your bankroll to work on teams you can trust to do what they're supposed to. For example, the other New York team.
Chad Pennington - Bodog NationChad Pennington and the New York Jets are beating the teams they should in 2006. (AP photo)

The Jets sport a 6-5 record and have beaten just one team over .500, the New England Patriots. In fact, New York is 1-4 straight up against winning sides and 5-1 against losing ones, with that one loss coming on the road in Cleveland. In games in which they were favored, the Jets are 3-0 straight up and against the spread.

The above offers a stark comparison to a team like Jacksonville. Of the Jags' five losses, four of them have come against sides with losing records. Good thing they're 4-1 against winning squads.

New York's success against lesser competition is especially relevant considering the Jets' schedule; their last five games are all against teams with losing records - at Green Bay, home for Buffalo, on the road in Minnesota and Miami, and home for Oakland.

Straight from the Bodog Sportsbook:

"The Jets might not be the most talented team in the NFL, but head coach Eric Mangini has them playing smart, disciplined football. Here's a statistic that might have gone overlooked in Sunday's game against Houston: one penalty for five yards, and that didn't come until the fourth quarter. It was the second time this season the Jets did not commit a penalty in the first half. And that's the kind of team you like to back down the stretch - one that won't beat itself."

Another team that's been consistently good in recent weeks is Buffalo. The Bills have covered four straight spreads and have done so against some impressive competition. In Week 10, Buffalo lost 17-16 in Indianapolis as 12-point underdogs. On Sunday, as three-point home dogs, it knocked off the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24. Victories over Green Bay and Houston also came during the stretch.

This Sunday, the Bills will be getting a good number of points at home to San Diego. Even better, the extended weather forecast for Buffalo shows a high of 34 degrees and a chance of snow. Since 2000, the Chargers - perhaps overly used to the balmy southern California weather - have just one victory versus nine losses on the road in outdoor venues after Dec. 1.

[rjb1816]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

This Sunday, the Bills will be getting a good number of points at home to San Diego. Even better, the extended weather forecast for Buffalo shows a high of 34 degrees and a chance of snow. Since 2000, the Chargers - perhaps overly used to the balmy southern California weather - have just one victory versus nine losses on the road in outdoor venues after Dec. 1.

Good read...although this is probably the most useless statistic I have ever heard...they fail to mention that prior to 2004 the chargers could have played every game in the comfort of 80 degree weather and still got their asses kicked

[Dr. Jack]

lol rjb - I agree