NFL Gambling Question

[Kramer]

Home favorites of -7 or more are 31-4 so far(S/U)

So how come there aren't a lot of money line plays on big spreads?

You pay more but would beat the odds in long run no?

[dave nz]

You could always parlay a couple together to give you around the -125 mark.

Is a better option than playing -300 straight IMO.

[oly]

I guess there are just to many gamblers who want to go for the big bucks right away and not in the long run, even thought it would be safer to just bet on a more of a sure thing.

[uva3021]

scared to lay the juice

[StatQuo17]

Originally Posted by dave nz

You could always parlay a couple together to give you around the -125 mark.

Is a better option than playing -300 straight IMO.

dont it once with like a 15 team collage parlay, went 13 out of 15, they were both -3 games so game could of went either way, did it really for fun

[MCP313]

31-4 in 9 weeks means on avg there are 4 of these plays per week.......assuming you would need all 4 to make it around even money or slightly plus you would be up miniscule if only 1 lost every other week

would be nice to know when these 4 losers happened........if they happened together that would help make a bit more money on some $$ line parlays

IMO its hard enough to pick 1 winner let alone try grouping a bunch ML or no ML

PEACE

[Kramer]

They all happened separate weeks
9/17/06 Mia lost to Buf -7 fav
102206 Jac lost to Hou -8
10/29/06 Phi lost to Jac-8
11./05/06 chi lost to mia -13

[Kramer]

There's 6 Home Favorites this week of -7 or more so what are the odds
an underdog wins s/u this week I guess is the questin ...

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by Kramer

They all happened separate weeks
9/17/06 Mia lost to Buf -7 fav
102206 Jac lost to Hou -8
10/29/06 Phi lost to Jac-8
11./05/06 chi lost to mia -13

JAX was in Houston.....was there another one?

PEACE

[Kramer]

Yep , wrong 1
Was Home to Ten -12
Lost ...
10/15/2006

[Kramer]

OK : Lets see if this makes sense : I’m just here to help both myself and others

Lets say this is an average year.

31-4 is about 88% winners

If you settled on just -7 spreads and stayed away from doubled digit spread where you pay too much.

You can get -$300-$305 for a -7 home favorite.

So lets say you win 8/10 games ( I’ve doubled the losses in case of a bad year)

You win $ 800 for the 8 bets and lose $ 600 ( 2 x -$300)
for a profit of $ 200

Now you need more discipline than wagering 5 x $ 100 games
but it seems to me this is a more profitable

long run season than wagering 3 point field goal 50/50 games
most gamblers do on an average basis which most do or wager the + big point spreads ...
.

The key is discipline wagering larger amounts with lower expected returns
but higher winning percentages .

Problem I see is many gamblers want too much “action “
(I.e. want to wager 5-7-$100 games and go 5-7-1 week ,
rather than than gamble on a 90% chance on the 1 $-300 game)

With a -$300 moneyline one may think there’s a 1/3 chance of losing but that may simply be the “market” price of the wager rather than the actual
straight up odds of the home favorite losing

comments / suggestions welcome...

I will keep tracks of the rest of -7 plus games for rest of season.

[The Judge]

Good stuff Kramer, this is why we keep you around.

[Kramer]

Thanks Judger not just a pretty face around here ya know :

Jacksonville -12 = Loss
Atlanta -8 = Loss
New England -10.5 = Loss
Indianapolis -12 = Win
Philedelphia -7 = win
2-3 for afternoon games

If you stuck to discapline -7 Eagles
you are a winner ...

Carolina Monday night is pending ...

[pottan]

lazy people lose there money because they depend on other handicappers,you should do your home work.
the best handicapper one should know is himself.

[Kramer]

Thanks for your support pottan
When you see a system that produces 80% winners for members of
Cappers mall that no one else has noticed
that you're willing to share
feel free to do your home work ...

I'm not sure what I should do my home work means isn't it
what I'm doing in this thread?